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Meltzer's Musings: USNTDP Draft Candidates |
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2014 NHL DRAFT: NUMEROUS USNTDP PLAYERS LIKELY TO GO IN TOP TWO ROUNDS
The IIHF Under-18 World Championships have been dominated by Team USA over the last decade. In the last 10 tournaments, the Americans have captured the gold medal seven times, including five of the last six years. This year, Team USA returned to the gold medal podium one year after getting knocked off by Canada in the championship game.
Much of the international success experienced by the Americans has been because of the evermore competitive and deep pool of talent that USA Hockey has recruited to the U.S. National Team Development Program. Correspondingly, a host of players from the NTDP have been selected in the NHL Draft. This year is no exception.
The 2014 NHL Draft could feature as many as five to seven players from the U18 Worlds gold medal squad being taken in the first or second rounds of the Draft. That does not even include the highly touted Jack Eichel, who is not Draft-eligible until 2015.
This year, a trio of NTDP forwards could go in the first round of the NHL Draft: Dylan Larkin, Frank "Sonny" Milano and Alex Tuch. Depending on how the selections fall in the top 16 picks, it is likely that one or two (or possibly even all three) will still be on the board when the Philadelphia Flyers go on the clock to make the 17th overall selection.
To oversimplify things a bit, each of the three players offers at least one outstanding trait that makes him stand out from the other two. Larkin is the most well-rounded player of the three. The smallish Milano is a puck handling wizard with a natural finishing touch and is the most elusive east-west skater of the trio. Tuch is the biggest and strongest, with a huge frame that he uses to win forechecking battles and create room for himself and his linemates.
Larkin, who is committed to the University of Michigan, is one of the safest picks in this year's Draft between his physical attributes, hockey sense and work ethic. Larkin plays a straight-ahead NHL-style game, showing the moxie to battle in traffic and along the walls. He is also a solid skater. Larkin has experience playing both center and left wing, and could adapt to either position as a pro.
Larkin is ahead of the curve in his play without the puck. He plays the much-coveted 200-foot game and has the potential to play in all game situations as he advances to the pro ranks. Currently packing about 190 pounds on his 6-foot-1 frame, Larkin will never be a behemoth but he is very strong physically for a player of his size and age.
As he continues to get bigger and stronger, Larkin's offensive development may accelerate. He can finish but is not a pure playmaker. One NHL scout opined that he could be one of those uncommon players who produces more as he moves up the ladder. However, the general consensus on Larkin up to this point is that he projects as a top-six forward who can also handle significant defensive responsibilities.
If any of the three aforementioned players currently project as a potential top-line NHL forward, Milano would be the one. He is outstanding with the puck on his stick: an outstanding puckhandler, creative and elusive, and has both a quick and accurate shot and a deft passing touch. When playing away from the puck in the offensive zone, Milano also has the ability to find seams in the defense, emerge in a scoring area and present a good target for his linemates.
The rest of Milano's game needs work. He is average at best defensively and has been known to cheat out of the defensive zone early. In tight-checking games, such as portions of the U18 World Championship semifinal against Sweden, Milano is not always noticeable.
As such, whichever NHL team selects Milano has to be willing to tolerate a bit of risk in the hopes of hitting a home run with the continued development of his offensive game. Regardless of his pure puck skills, he faces some adjustments to be a successful pro. Milano is committed to Boston College next season.
Tuch, who is also committed to Boston College, already has a high degree of physical maturity. He reportedly packs between 215 to 220 pounds on his 6-foot-4 frame. Just as importantly, he understands that using his size and strength is the key to his playing effectively. He is a good forechecker and effective in a cycling game. Tuch is hard to separate from the puck, with a heavy stick and the ability to make would-be checkers bounce off him.
Unlike Milano, there are no frills Tuch's game. He skates north-south and scores many of his goals from near the net, although he can also score off one-timers from the medium slot or near the hash marks. The big question with Tuch is whether he can score goals when not playing with top caliber linemates. He will not create many of his own chances and it can take him multiple scoring chances in a game to bag one goal.
Tuch did not score a goal at the U18 Worlds, despite being credited with 21 shots on goal. He came close numerous times. However, Tuch was a plus-five and a solid complement to his linemates throughout the tourney. He works hard to help in a variety of little ways that may not show up on the scoresheet but which are important to winning.
Central Scouting ranked Tuch 12th on its final North American skater list, with Milano 16th and Larkin 17th. International Scouting Services placed Tuch 14th overall, immediately followed by Larkin at 15th and Milano at 16th. Former NHL general manager Craig Button, now a draft pundit for TSN, ranked Milano 20th on his final "Craig's List", with Larkin 21st and Tuch at 32nd.
Apart from the three NTDP forwards, there is a solid possibility that two, three or four NTDP defensemen could also be selected by the end of the second round of the 2014 Draft: Jack Glover, Jack Doughtery, Johnathan MacLeod and Ryan Collins.
Glover, who is committed to the University of Minnesota, has a high physical upside -- a plus skater and puck mover on a 6-foot-3 frame -- but has been inconsistent in his play over the course of his Draft year. Central Scouting placed him 38th on its final North American list, while Button notably omitted him from his top 100.
Collins is also committed to Minnesota. Ranked 57th on Central Scouting's North American list, the defensive defenseman could be a second-round pick in this year's Draft. He has a big frame (6-foot-4) and moves around decently, but is at is his best when he plays a simple game.
Doughtery, who is committed to the University of Wisconsin, is a well-rounded defenseman with some two-way upside and an NHL-type frame. If the righthanded shooting back's skating was a little better he would likely be a projected first-round pick but is still likely to go within the first two rounds. Central Scouting ranked Dougherty 30th on the North American list. He had a strong U18 Worlds for the gold medalists.
Headed for Boston University, MacLeod was ranked 44th on the final Central Scouting North American list. He is the most physical of the defensemen on this list and makes a decent first pass. He also has a heavy shot, although he lacks a quick release.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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