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Opening Round Shows Playoffs Are About Desperation; New Hockeybuzzcast

April 22, 2014, 11:35 AM ET [32 Comments]
Eklund
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Check out the today's Hockeybuzzcast with myself, Mike Augello and special guest Matthew Barry:








The first round of the NHL playoffs is really like no other. There is an unmistakable ebb and flow to the series driven by the balance of desperation versus relaxation. Losing in the first round is only slightly better than not making the playoffs in most teams minds, and because of this we see the desperate team usually winning especially in the opening for games. I have always believed home ice advantage in the first four games doesn't mean anything. Home ice matters when it comes to elimination games, so having two of the final three games at home is an advantage.

I did a blog a few years ago that showed when a team is blown out by four or more goals in a playoff game they tend to win the next game 65% of the time. That may sound counterintuitive but plays right into my theory. Desperation versus relaxation. In the playoffs you have to maintain an edge and even the best coaching doesn't always counter every aspect of human nature. The team coming off a win is going to play the next game more relaxed and the team coming off a loss is going to be more desperate. And that just multiplies when we talk about multiple wins or multiple losses.

In the second round this seems to drop off drastically and the better teams remain focused, while the more desperate teams are as desperate as they appeared in the opening round. Perhaps there's no shame in losing in the second round of playoffs for most teams. And there is no question that the grind of the playoffs starts to take hold.

Last night we saw three teams Dallas, Minnesota, and Chicago, who were staring down the barrel of a gun and all got it done. That was not surprising. You're talking about quality NHL teams who have fight left in them. The question today is all about the exhale.

Tonight...

I fully expect the Kings to come out huge and win this one. Not only were they blown out in game 2, but they are an experienced bunch who has been here before.

In Philly I would give the slight edge to the Rangers who know they only have one more game until the Flyers get Mason back and were the Rangers to drop down 2-1 and then have to face Mason it would make for a much more difficult task. The Flyers need to avoid relaxing in this situation and in some ways that would be a bigger issue were Mason to be back tonight. Coming home, having stolen home ice, etc....these are the kinds of things that can take away the necessary edge.

The Bruins were dominant in game 2, but the Red Wings are a team that did what it needed to in Boston and winning in Detroit in the playoffs has always been a monstrous task.

The Canadiens are in the very rare spot of being able to sweep a series on their own ice. For obvious reasons this doesn't happen too often. There is a different kind of pressure on the Habs tonight, and while I believe they will get it done I have always believed that if you are down 3-0 you want this game 4 away. Should the Lightning manage to stay alive tonight they get to go home for the next game and attempt to force a nerve inducing game 6 in Montreal. This is the exact scenario the Flyers were in when they toppled the Bruins in 7 after being down 3-0.

More to come...
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