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On the surface, this series would appear to belong to the St. Louis Blues.
They finished with the superior record, and took the season series 3-2. They hold home-ice advantage in this best of seven series. And they were better than the Hawks in almost every important statistical category.
W/L:
Chicago 46-21-15 107 pts.
St. Louis 52-23-7 111 pts.
G/G:
Chicago 2nd
St. Louis 7th
GA/G:
Chicago 11th
St. Louis 3rd
PP:
Chicago 11th
St. Louis 7th
PK:
Chicago 19th
St. Louis 2nd
But it’s another set of numbers that tilts this series toward the Chicago Blackhawks.
If you remove the gimmick known as the shootout—irrelevant in the playoffs—the Hawks were the slightly better regular season team. If you remove 4 on 4 overtime—likely irrelevant in the playoffs—the Hawks were a marginally better team than the Blues.
Over their last ten games, the Hawks were 5-5, the Blues 3-7, including dropping their last six regular season games. The reason for this is both teams were banged up toward the end of the season, however, the Blues much more so, and the Hawks appear to be getting healthier faster.
While questions linger about St. Louis’ David Backes, Vladimir Sobotka and Patrick Berglund, Patrick Kane and Bryan Bickell appear 100% ready and rested for Chicago.
All-Everything Chicago captain Jonathan Toews’ health remains a bit more of a mystery. Nursing an “upper body” injury, Toews looks fine skating, although rumors persist he will need off-season shoulder surgery. If Toews plays, it could be in a harness—not unheard of, Patrick Sharp did it last year—but his effectiveness could be limited.
In the end, between two fairly evenly matched teams, that’s what it will come down to, who’s really healthier—and a significant experience advantage for Chicago.
All things being equal, the Blues would have no easy task beating a Chicago club that’s won 2 of the last 4 Stanley Cups. It will be even more difficult if they are somewhat undermanned. The Hawks have been there; they have shown they handle adversity better than the Blues do.
On the ice, the Hawks won the last two meetings between the teams, as a trend emerged that could prove telling in this series. The Blues’ forecheck got them into trouble once the Hawks settled things down and exited their zone quickly. This tilted the ice in the Hawks’ favor, creating numerous odd-man and offensive zone possession advantages.
Barring a significant setback to Toews or other unforeseen serious injury, I see this series going to the Hawks in 6.
All for now,
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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