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Rangers-Flyers: Reading the Numbers, Looking for an Advantage |
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Rangers-Flyers: Reading the Numbers, Looking for an Advantage
I did this the past two post-seasons, highlighting a few numbers and seeing if anything could be gleaned from them. Given the familiarity of the two teams, since they last year teams only faced teams in their own conference, and this year, with both remaining in the same division and meeting four times, maybe not much will be learned, but let's see where it takes us.
Win-Loss Record
Rangers: 45-31-6 (overall), 20-17-4 (home), 25-14-2 (road)
Flyers: 42-30-10 (overall), 24-14-3 (home), 18-16-7 (road)
Both the Rangers and Flyers struggled to start the season with each righting the ship. The Rangers came when they got healthy and adapted to new coach Alain Vigneault's system while Philly's happened when they replaced coach Peter Laviolette with Craig Berube, Claude Giroux got healthy and Jakub Voracek was placed back on a line with Giroux. New York went 14-7-2 at the Garden from December on while the 25 road wins tied Pitt and Anaheim for second most in the league behind Colorado and set a Rangers record. Philly lost four of their first five at home while starting 1-7 but were dominant at home after that. They were up-and-down on the road and have lost eight straight at MSG.
Goals For/Against
Rangers: 2.61-2.32 (per game)
Flyers: 2.84-2.77
The Rangers had issues scoring the first two months of the season, but since the New York, they scored nearly three goals per contest. That number remained fairly constant, even after the acquisition of Martin St. Louis, though he did little to help maintain that pace. On the season, they finished 18th, which is a drop from 15th a year ago. The goals against number was fourth in the league, despite a horrific start to the season and change in defensive formats from John Tortorella. Henrik Lundqvist was is Vezina Trophy self down the stretch, going 11-4-1 with a 1.89 GAA AND .935 SV% the last 16 games he played. Philadelphia, as noted above, really kicked up the offense following their slow start, during which they scored just 22 goals their first 15 games, to finish eighth in the league. They were paced by Giroux, who was dominant once he was healthy. Voracek added 62 points, Wayne Simmonds had 29 goals - included 15 on the power play - and 60 points while Scott Hartnell rebounded to tally 52 points. The Flyers were 20th in goals-against in the league, but that doesn't reflect just how well Steve Mason played and how little help Ray Emery was as a backup.
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio
Rangers: 1.07
Flyers: 0.96
The teams ended up 10th and 17th in this category, with the Rangers dropping from 1.30 and third and Philly rising from 0.86 and 25th last year. These numbers are no real surprise when you factor in what happened in the next category, but at even-strength, Philly only outscored NY 147-142. What the means is the big edge - both overall as a % of overall goals - were scored on the man advantage. but even though it looks that this is where the Rangers have a major edge, despite the Caps firepower, Washington had 93 goals in 5-on-5 play, the Rangers, 91.
Power Play
Rangers: 18.2 percent, 48-for-264 (overall),15.7 percent, 20-for-132 (home): 21.2 percent, 28-for-132 (road)
Flyers: 19.7 percent, 58-for-294 (overall), 15,1 percent, 24-for-159 (home); 25.2 percent 34-for-135 (road)
While Philly had the edge on the power play, the net difference is 10 goals - or one every eight games - and 30 chances. The Flyers finished eighth in the league in terms of PP success % but were third in goals while New York was 15th and 17th, respectively. What is more interesting is how both teams struggled at home, both in terms of goals and success ratio, but were markedly better on the road, with Philly tops in PP success ratio and third in goals while NY was seventh and fifth, respectively. New York had a brief stretch where the PP was successful, but regressed just before and after the Olympics, and especially after Chris Kreider was taken off the top line and replaced by St. Louis, as well as when the Zucc line became the second group. Look for Pouliot-Brassard-Zucc-McDonagh-Richards to be the top pairing with Nash-Stepan-St. Louis-Girardi-Moore the second unit. Philly will roll out Giroux-Simmonds-Hartnell-Voracek-Timonen with Schenn-Lecavalier-Read-Streit-MacDonald on the second pairing.
Where the Rangers might be able to advantage is on the penalty kill, as the Flyers allowed 11 short-handed goals, third in the league, and the Rangers surrendered seven. New York has used Nash-St.Louis as a unit while also pairing Hagelin-Stepan together to take advantage of their ability to turn offense into defense. Boyle-D. Moore will also see lots of ice time with McDonagh and Girardi the top PK d-unit.
Penalty Kill
Rangers: 85.3 percent, 34-of-232 (overall), 84.8 percent, 16-of-105 (home); 85.8 percent
18-of-127 (road)
Flyers: 84.8 percent, 48-of-316 (overall); 83.7 percent, 25-of-153 (home); 85.9 percent, 23-of-163 (road).
The Rangers were ranked third in the league this year in terms of success rate after finishing 15 a year while Philly finished seventh this year after ending up fifth at 85.9% a year ago. New York was second overall in PK time while the Flyers was 30th and last while also finishing 29th in times shorthanded. New York scored 10 SHG while Philadelphia tallied eight.
The Rangers were sixth best in the league in killing penalties at home while Philly was 10th. On the road, the Rangers were third while Flyers was second. Philly has the overall edge in special teams, based on the numbers, as they have they can score and also kill penalties, but the extra times shorthanded could result in that one goal which changes the complexion of a whole series
New York was first in the league in Home PK TOI (170:54) while Philadelphia was 30th and last at 260:11. On the road, New York was eighth in the the league in PK TOI at (214:58) while the Flyers were 30th and last again at 282:05. The Rangers have to try and draw penalties in general against the Flyers but especially at MSG as Philadelphia was 30th in road PP minus PK time with a minus-63:31.
Hits-Blocked Shots-Missed Shots-Giveaways-Takeaways
Rangers: 1905H-1119B-993M-706G-564T (overall); 985H-555B-512M-446G-332T (home); 920H-564-B-481-M-260G-232-T (road)
Flyers: 2174H-1200B-1005M-587-G-445T (overall); 1162H-656B-546M-328G-250T (home); 1012H-544B-459M-259G-195T (road)
In the past, the Rangers used to have the edge in hits and blocked shots when they faced a team; not this year. They are playing a more physical team, and with the change in style from Torts to AV, the Rangers no longer solely focus on blocking shots. Overall, Philly was sixth and 16th while New York was 14th and 21st in those categories. Philly was much more aggressive at home blocking shots than on the road, same with missed shots, so those are something to watch for at MSG, The missed shots were fairly close between the squads but the Rangers were 11th in coughing up the puck and the Flyers 21st. But, the Rangers did a solid job in taking the puck back, finishing 12th in the league while was down at 28th. Surprisingly, the Rangers and Flyers were pretty close with missed more shots on net, as you might have expected Philadelphia to have put more shots on net, so it's just that the Flyers were more efficient, as the Rangers finished second in the league with 33.2 SOG/game while the Flyers were 14th at 30.4.
Faceoffs
Rangers: 48.8 percent, 2397W-2512L
Flyers: 50.0 percent, 2504W-2507L
The teams ranked 16th and 22nd in the league. In order, for the Rangers, Dominic Moore won 54.6% of his 648 draws while Brian Boyle won 52.9% of his 578 draws, down from 56.4% a year ago, Brad Richards won 49.8% of his 1029 draws and Derick Brassard won 48% of his 977 faceoffs. Derek Stepan, who historically has struggled in the dot, did so again this year, winning just 45.2% of his 1512 down from the 45.8% he won last year. Late in games, look for Moore, Boyle or Richards to be on for key defensive draws if the Rangers are up a goal. For Philly, Adam Hall won 59.6% of 527 draws while Claude Giroux won 52.9% of his whopping 1760 draws, showing why he will be out there in all situations. The second-most draws were taken by Sean Couturier, who won 47.8% of his 1353 faceoffs. Brayden Schenn won just 43.2% of of his 685 draws and Vincent Lecavalier was mildly better, winning 44.6% of his faceoffs. This is where matchups and last changes could be key, especially in the defensive zone, as if either Stepan or Lecavalier are caught in their own zone, it could have a major impact on the series. In addition, interesting, Giroux won 56% of his draws at home but just 49.9% on the road, a split that is similar for the rest of the Flyers and the Rangers, save for Hall and Brassard who were slightly better on the road than at home.
Record When Leading After 20 Minutes, 40 Minutes//Trailing After 20, 40
Rangers: 20-4-2, 28-1-2/6-18-0, 5-23-2
Flyers: 21-5-2, 29-2-4/8-18-3, 7-22-2
The Rangers were 10th in win % but just 18th in the league for wins if leading after one and sixth in win % and and tied for 12th in wins if leading after two, though they suffered just one regulation and two overtime losses if leading after two. We have harped all year about how frequently they have gotten of to slow starts, forcing comebacks, and the numbers of wins after leading after one are a pretty good indication as to the frequency of slow starts for this team.
The Flyers were tied for 14th in win % and 16th in wins if leading after one while tied for 18th and tied for ninth if leading after two in those categories, which coupled with the next stat, show they are a bit of a comeback team.
New York finished tied for 15th for wins if trailing after one and tied for 13th for wins if trailing after two, which is a slight decline to where they were the past few years, when they were known as a comeback team but the numbers aren't that drastically different. Philly was tied for fourth in wins if trailing after one and after two, though just two wins above the Rangers in each case, so they have clearly shown the ability to come back.
Record When Scoring First//Trailing First
Rangers: 31-5-2/14-26-4
Flyers: 29-5-5/13-25-2
The Rangers had the sixth best winning percentage but tied for 10th in wins if scoring first while the Flyers were 10th and tied for 15th in both categories, adding further evidence to the notion I made above that they are a comeback team. In addition, New York and Philly was tied for the third fewest losses when scoring first, so both have shown that a strong start is a big plus for each. The Rangers were tied for ninth while Philly was tied for 11th in wins when surrendering the first goal - though separated by just one win - but the Rangers were tied for 12th (.333) and Philadelphia 16th (.302) in win percentage in those cases.
Shots/Shots Allowed
Rangers: 33.2-29.4
Flyers: 30.4-30.6
Again, if you didn't know both styles of play, the numbers above might be a bit more surprising, but the changes in coaches - one in the off-season and one during the year - has led to an uptick in Shots for and against. For the Rangers, there was a rise of two-plus shots on goal per game, and even with the switch from Torts to AV, the shots allowed on goal only rose a bit more than one per game. New York used to look to limit opportunities and block shots, but the change of coaches resulted in a change of style of play to more puck possession and less on blocked shots. You would expect Philly to be a similar style of team, but they finished with one more block per game, yet took almost three less shots per game while surrendering one more.
When the Rangers outshoot their opponent, they went 29-22-3 (.537), which is a drop %wise for the second straight year, but the 29 wins were tied for fourth in the league. Philly only outshot their opponents in 39 games, going 22-14-3 (.564), the eighth best winning percentage in the league. When outshot, the Rangers went 13-8-1 (.591), just 29th in wins and ninth in win % while Philly was 20-15-7 (.476), tied for 14th in wins but 18th in win %, due to factoring in OT losses even though that means a point was earned. What we do see is that the Rangers change in style has resulted in more shots on net while Philly is comfortable when they are on the receiving end of more shots.
One-Goal Game Record, Two-Goal Games, Three-Goal Games
Rangers: 17-14-6, 12-7, 16-10
12-5-4, 2-7, 12-6
Flyers: 17-8-10, 10-8, 15-14
13-7-3, 5-2, 9-9
The Rangers two years ago had the fourth-best winning percentage (.636) in one- and two- (.650) goal games. Last year, they slid to ninth and 29th but their mark in three-goal games improved from 10th to fifth in the league. This year, they were just 21st in one-goal game (.459, due to OT losses), but were sixth in two-goal and ninth in three-goal, even after their horrific start and blowouts on the road. Philly was 16th (.486) in one-goal, 14th (.556) in two-goal and 15th (.517) in three-goal games, though they were in top-five in three-goal games in the league. The Rangers scored seven and allowed four empty-net goals, while Philadelphia had 10 empty-net goals for but allowed eight.
Overtime/Shootout Record
Rangers: 6-6
Philadelphia: 7-10
The Rangers had the least number of games go to overtime and shootout with just 12. NY was 4-3 in shootouts, so 2-3 in OT, while Philly was 3-8 in shootouts, so 4-2 in OT. As we saw the past few seasons, several games could go to Sudden Death OT.
Penalty Minutes
Rangers: 10.0 (per game)
Flyers: 14.4
The Rangers were ninth in the league in fewest penalty minutes per game while the Flyers were 30th and last in PIM/game. As we saw above, both teams are solid on the penalty kill, but in Philly's case, the more chances you give a team, regardless of how good you are, sometimes it comes back to burn you. Philly is very good on the power play, so New York needs to continue to do a good job of staying out of the box.
A further look into the numbers show that the Rangers were just 10th in minors (284), while Philly was 29th (357). Two years, a good portion of the Blueshirts’ penalty minutes came due to majors, as they tied Boston for worst in the league, but last year, they were just seventh with 18 and this season, similar with 27, while the Flyers were tied for 28th with Boston with 46.
Infer what you will from these numbers, and once the puck drops, most of these will probably just be a nice sidebar.
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