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Meltzer's Musings: Wednesday Quick Hits

February 26, 2014, 6:16 AM ET [488 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
WEDNESDAY QUICK HITS

* The Flyers did not skate yesterday. Today, they will have a heavy-duty practice in preparation for tomorrow night's game against the San Jose Sharks at the Wells Fargo Center.

* In a classic case of the way statistics can be sliced and diced different ways to support diametrically opposite arguments, there are two different ways one could interpret the NHL's official statistics on credited hits per team this season.

On the one hand, among the teams in the top half of the league in hits, nine are currently either in playoff position or (in Phoenix's case) would miss out on the playoffs via tiebreaker if the season ended today. On the flip side, among the bottom nine in that category, seven would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. In fact, the team at the very bottom of the NHL in hits is the defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks (979).

Traditionalists often argue that teams that register a lot of hits are more likely to wear down opposing teams and win the tough, grind-it-out games that often mark the stretch run and postseason. The advanced stats set often views hits as a negative, since it means the team does not have possession of the puck at the time and does not necessarily gain possession as a result of the body check.

My view is pretty much in the middle. First of all, there are many different ways by which a team can win (or lose) and different clubs are built and coached to play varying styles. It doesn't make one way or another inherently better that some clubs have success playing that way. Secondly, as with any traditional or advanced stat, hits are a small piece of information in the broader picture of the game. Lastly, some buildings in the league are particularly generous or stingy in awarding hits to players. It's a subjective stat.

As such, I don't believe that any conclusions can be drawn by trying to correlate team hits to their win-loss record. The primary place that I think it's useful is as individual stat that partially points to which players perform which roles on their respective teams.

For what it's worth, the Flyers rank seventh in the NHL in credited hits, with 1,504. On an individual basis, the top four are Luke Schenn (181), Zac Rinaldo (156 in 49 games, and the team leader in hits per ice time), Nicklas Grossmann (137) and Brayden Schenn (135).

* Brayden Schenn has an interesting split on his season statistics in terms of his individual production in games that the Flyers win (12 goals and 23 points in 30 team wins, with a plus-14 rating) and games the team loses (3 goals and 9 points in 29 regulation/OT/SO losses with a minus-12 rating).

I'd also be interested to see the split in his productivity in games were he primarily plays center and ones where he primarily plays left wing. Schenn has been better as a center than as a winger in his NHL career. Count me among those who would like to see him stay at in the middle for the long haul.

Of course, that creates a problem of where to play Vincent Lecavalier the rest of the season. Lecavalier has been ineffective on the wing and isn't going to unseat Claude Giroux on the top line or Sean Couturier as the center of the third line.

* Several people have asked me if I thought the Flyers would sign unrestricted free agent Simon Gagne for the rest of the season. The answer is no, although anything is possible.

The club sees Michael Raffl as a younger, healthier and more physical version of the player Gagne was in the same role last year, although Gagne (even in decline as an offensive player) was still modestly more of a point-producer than the Austrian rookie. Incidentally, it was one year ago today that the Flyers reacquired Gagne from the Los Angeles Kings.

* I spoke recently with an NHL scout about the top undrafted collegiate players in NCAA hockey. He was of the opinion that the best unrestricted free agent rookie candidate this season is 23-year-old UMass-Lowell defenseman Christian Folin. A product of the famed Frölunda system in Sweden before coming to North America, the 6-foot-3 blueliner is a good collegiate two-way defenseman with both size (6-foot-3, 210 pounds) and puck-moving ability.

Other players the scout mentioned were currently injured UNH offensive defenseman and 2012 Flyers Development Camp attendee Trevor van Riemsdyk (James' younger brother), hulking Boston University goaltender Matt O'Connor, Miami playmaking center Austin Czarnik, UN-O senior forward Ryan Walters, and St. Lawrence senior forward Greg Carey.

For the complete rundown and the scout's take on each player, click here (note: free signup required to read the article).

* Today in Flyers' History: On this date in 1997, the Flyers emerged victorious in an 8-5 track meet in Ottawa. The Legion of Doom, recently reunited by coach Terry Murray after a stretch of three games with Mikael Renberg playing on a line with Joel Otto and Shjon Podein while rookie Dainius Zubrus played with Eric Lindros and John LeClair, wreaked havoc. Lindros set a new single-game career high with six assists. Renberg notched two goals and two assists. LeClair had a hat trick and an assist. The Flyers also got goals from Paul Coffey and Rod Brind'Amour.

Philly led by scores of 1-0, 2-1 and 4-2 before falling behind, 5-4, early in the second period. Thereafter, the Flyers went on to score four unanswered goals.

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CASINO ROYALE FUNDRAISER WITH FLYERS ALUMNI

On Sun. March 9, starting at 5 p.m., Abrams Hebrew Academy will hold its annual Fund Raising Dinner and Casino Royale Night at Congregation Beth El in Yardley, PA. Special guests for the night will include Bernie Parent, Brian Propp, Bill Clement, Joe Watson and Bob "the Hound" Kelly.

Apart from the dinner and casino event, there will also be a host of items available via auction, including a signed stick by all three members of the Flyers' legendary LCB line (Reggie Leach and Hall of Famers Bob Clarke and Bill Barber), boxes of Bernie Parent's signature cigar line, a handsome Clarke lithograph and many more goodies.

All proceeds go to benefit the school. My nephew, Sammy Sherman, attends Abrams and my sister, Liza, helped to organize the event and line up the Flyers alumni guests. The slogan for the event is "Help Abrams Make Its Goal."

For more information, click here.


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