It's a year and a half off, but there's already been hearty discussion about the future of star forwards Bobby Ryan and Jason Spezza in Ottawa. Both are contentious for unique reasons: the team's sort of going to have to bite the bullet and re-up what's likely to be an expensive new deal for Bobby Ryan, considering the assets they gave up to get him just one year ago. On the other side, Jason Spezza: a player as hotly debated as any, with legitimate questions going forwards as to his durability and effectiveness, and whether or not he can meet the expectations of 30+ long-term deal.
There's one another player that sort of gets lost in the shuffle here, primarily because he's on such a ridiculously cap-friendly two-year, $6.5MM deal -- Clarke MacArthur. Ottawa signed the winger after he unceremoniously parted ways with the Maple Leafs last off-season, and thanks largely to his defense-heavy role (and subsequent lack of point-production), he came unbelievably cheap.
MacArthur, like Ryan and Spezza (and Condra, and Methot, and Anderson..) is an unrestricted free agent at the end of next season. I'm guessing that he's going to be in the cards for an extension -- for large stretches of the fifty-three games he's put in for Paul MacLean, he's been the team's most effective forward. He's a neutral zone wizard, he drives possession, and not surprisingly it leads to points. Playing off of Kyle Turris and alongside the aforementioned Ryan, MacArthur's scored a sterling 18G and 24A in 53 GP.
I made a note a few days ago that, through the entire season, the amount of mistakes Clarke MacArthur's made this year can probably be counted on one hand. He's been that good. So, while it's impossible to ignore that his 17.3% Sh% is a bit out of wack with his career norms, you can still expect hearty point production for a guy who (a) generates a lot of shot-attempts; (b) plays with quality linemates; and (c) over his career (nearly 800 shots), shoots over 14%. The last part is important. If you're looking at regressing his goal-scoring (you should), you don't regress it to the league average. You regress it to MacArthur's well-established average, which sits above the league's norm.
So, other than maybe MacArthur taking a small step back in the goal-scoring front, there aren't a lot of concerns about his game falling off. That's what makes his next deal in Ottawa -- assuming Bryan Murray wants to keep him around -- tricky.
If you're Bryan Murray, you have to ultimately weigh the pros and cons of seriously considering an extension this summer. He's been unbelievable in 2013-2014, and is going to command a hefty raise. But, it's four, five months of production after an absurdly cheap deal was inked an off-season ago. As high as demands might be, they can always get higher.
That's the gamble Murray takes if he sits on his hands a bit this summer with MacArthur. Clarke's Sh% and, consequently, goal-scoring might take a small drop, but if he continues to play with Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan, the points are going to come en masse. And, knowing what commands dollars in the National Hockey League -- points, points, and points -- there's a chance that MacArthur can repeat, or close-to-repeat what he's done this season, next season.
And, I don't need to make a compelling argument about how a player's contractual demands predictably rise as his sample size of production grows. MacArthur's completely convinced me that he's a top-six winger -- I've been impressed with his game as any other player this year, and the only concern to me is keeping the term on his next deal reasonable, considering he'll be twenty-nine this summer and thirty as he hits unrestricted free agency.
A lot's talked about Ryan and Spezza, and rightfully so. But how Murray plays MacArthur is just as interesting, I think. He can bite the bullet and pay now, or roll the dice and hope that his 2013-2014 season outperforms his 2014-2015 one.
Tough spot.
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Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
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