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The Penguins are set to take on the Buffalo Sabres at home this evening and while on paper it should be an easy win for the Penguins that is never the case in the NHL. The NHL’s hottest team, the Columbus Blue Jackets, learned that lesson the hard way on Saturday night when they dropped a 5-2 decision to the Sabres.
The Buffalo Sabres have been through an incredible amount of turmoil in recent memory. The shackles were finally removed from their fanbase when they fired underwhelming and under-performing GM Darcy Regier.
The Sabres have recently hired Tim Murray from the Ottawa Senators and he is a man much better equipped for leading a full and proper rebuild.
Part of that rebuild involves moving assets that will not be with the team long term, especially the ones that are going to be hitting unrestricted free agency this upcoming offseason.
Names that come to the top of the list include star goalie Ryan Miller, Matt Moulson, and Steve Ott.
Tim Murray is non-committal on whether he will move any of those 3 players but did remark that he is certainly listening for offers.
Murray has talked with those 3 UFA players and has said the following:
"I told them not to believe everything ... but certainly their names are in play."
This is where the Pittsburgh Penguins could
potentially come into play. The Penguins won’t be a major player for Ryan Miller’s services but they could certainly be looking at Matt Moulson and/or Steve Ott to help fill the voids in their forward grouping.
The Penguins need bottom 6 help. That could be accomplished in one of two ways, by acquiring a top 6 guy and having a trickledown effect, or to straight up acquire a bottom 6 forward. Moulson would be the trickledown route while Ott would directly help the bottom 6.
If it came down to it, which player would make more sense for the Penguins?
Let’s take a gander at how each player is performing this year for the Sabres.
Before we do it would be a service to each player if I prefaced the fact that the Sabres are woefully bad and the statistical numbers are going to reflect just how bad the Sabres have been.
In order to try and gauge each player’s value I am going to see what effect they have had on their 5 most common linemates.
First up Matt Moulson:
With Matt Moulson there seems to be a strong positive correlation between his presence and his teammate’s success. Four out of his five most common players he plays with see a drop when they are away from Moulson. The only player that sees improvement is the young promising Zemgus Girgensons. However, Matt Moulson also sees a huge spike when playing away from Girgensons. Those two players are just not a good match for one another.
The two centers he plays with the most experience their best numbers when playing with Moulson, but Moulson is way better without them. Ennis and Hodgson see a huge drop off away from Moulson which speaks to Moulson's positive influence.
This chart tells me that Moulson makes other players better. This is something you like to see when trying to acquire the services of a player.
Now on to Steve Ott:
The first thing you will notice is that his 5 most common linemates are not the same as Moulson. That is OK for what we are trying to accomplish here. I am trying to see if Moulson/Ott are a positive or negative influence on the players they play with. When you acquire a player in a trade he is no longer going to be playing with the players he was with (obviously). The idea is to gauge if Ott and/or Moulson make their teammates better.
With Steve Ott the numbers are not as encouraging as they were with Matt Moulson. With the exception of the abysmal Ville Leino none of Ott’s linemates see a drop when they are away from him. This tells me that Ott has not been as much of a positive influence on his teammates as Moulson has.
Also worth noting is that all of Ott’s GF% numbers are below 40%. That is pretty bad. I understand that playing on the Sabres has a lot to do with that, but even with that considered it is pretty bad to be clicking at lower than 40% all the time.
As always, how a player is used can be a huge factor into why they are successful or why they are having trouble. Here is the player usage chart for the Sabres forward unit for this season. Moulson and Ott are marked by a green dot.
As we can see, Moulson and Ott are not being used in incredibly different roles; they appear to be very similar. Moulson does receive more offensive zone starts but not by much. Moulson's relative Corsi is significantly better than that of Steve Ott.
The conclusion that I will draw from this data is that the Penguins should be targeting Matt Moulson in a trade over Steve Ott.
Matt Moulson has a significant positive influence on his linemates while Steve Ott at best has no impact at all. Both players would cost the Penguins at least their 1st round pick so it is important to get the right one.
Also working in Moulson’s favor is that he has proven in the past to work extremely well with a superstar centerman, that player was John Tavares. Moulson scored at least 30 goals for 3 consecutive seasons (2009-2012). His ability to score goals with a highly skilled center is a very attractive trait to have. Moulson also has a knack for being crafty around the goal mouth area and that is very advantageous in playoff hockey.
If the Penguins went the Moulson route he would hypothetically supplant Jussi Jokinen on the Malkin line allowing Jokinen to slide down and play with his former Hurricanes teammate Brandon Sutter.
With Jokinen bumping down that immediately upgrades the quality of the 3rd line and gives Brandon Sutter somebody competent to work with.
The Penguins would still have to rely on Beau Bennett to be healthy enough to play on the Crosby line.
If the Penguins were to engage in trade negotiations with the Sabres I would feel more comfortable with Ray Shero going after Moulson.
Given that the cost to acquire Ott and Moulson is going to be relatively in the same neighborhood I believe Moulson brings a lot more to the table.
Ott is an edgy high motor 3rd line player that certainly has enough skill to play with the Penguins, but considering how the Penguins have come unhinged in the playoffs in recent memory I'm not sure they need a player that can be undisciplined at times.
Also worth noting is that Ott is a natural centerman, the Penguins are already set in that department. By acquiring Ott the Penguins would be forced into playing either Sutter or Ott in their unnatural position. That would not be good asset management for Ray Shero. He should be trying to acquire players so that they are playing where they are most comfortable. Jarome Iginla anybody?
Thanks for reading!
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