If you missed it yesterday and this morning, I posted Canes team and individual player evaluations in 2 parts yesterday. You can find the team overall, goalies and forwards
HERE, and you can find the defensemen
HERE.
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After 2 days off to hopefully rest and recharge before a 2nd consecutive weekend with 3 games in 4 nights, the Canes play the Red Wings in Detroit tonight. The Wings come into the game with a respectable 9-6-7 record and sit in the 1st wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, but they enter the contest struggling a bit. Treading water on OTLs, the Wings are 0-2-5 in their last 7 games.
Funny thing the overtime-laden NHL is. For the Wings right now the difference between being reasonably hot versus being mired in an extended slump is the ability to win a skills competition unrelated to a hockey game, yet more evidence that the NHL needs to go to a longer overtime, allow ties or something next year.
But I digress…
After an impressive 4-0-1 home stand of grinding out wins on the back of strong play from Justin Peters, solid defense and finding a way to eek just enough scoring out of a struggling offense, the Canes have since lost consecutive games. For me, I am hesitant to read too much into the couple losses because of the context. First, both were against good teams in St. Louis and Boston. Second, as much as anything I think the Canes were just gassed playing 3 games in 4 nights all against big, physical teams (3rd was Anaheim) that tax you physically. The 2nd loss also featured the reinsertion of Cam Ward into the lineup after a long layoff. But context aside, after losing 5 straight, the Canes mostly won it back on the home stand. It is important that the team not turn around and give it all back again with another extended losing streak.
The Canes enter the game with a lineup in a state of flux. Alexander Semin will miss his 2nd game with a concussion sustained on a big Pietrangelo hit against St. Louis on Saturday. Jeff Skinner seems likely to finally rejoin the lineup, but then we said that on Monday too. (He did not play.) And as of last night, Muller had not committed on his goalie though he made a string of comments about these being real games and needing to give the team the best chance to win. That seems to open the door for more rather than less Justin Peters coming off his 4-0-1 run. The Canes play a back-to-back Saturday and Sunday, so best guess is that each goalie gets 1 of those starts regardless leaving Thursday as the extra. If practice is any indication, Skinner might join Eric Staal on the top line backfilling the hole left by Semin. The Canes are also healthy on defense which makes for a coaching decision there. Finally, the “flu” bug that has been biting teams across the league has officially arrived. Harrison and Hainsey missed a practice each this week, so there seems to be some chance that the Canes get another unwelcome roster surprise there.
Keys to the game from the Canes side:
1) Solid in net/same defense. Whether it be Cam Ward continuing to play his way back into form or Justin Peters stepping back in after a much-deserved rest after playing 11 straight, the Canes need to be solid if not great in net. One of these days the offense is going to arrive (Jeff Skinner should help some), but until then the margin for error in terms of goals against is incredibly tiny. The Canes rank 29th in goals scored per game and have not scored more than 2 in over a month (Oct 19 vs. Islanders).
On the road, the pressure also shifts to the 2nd defense pairing (likely Hainsey/Bellemore though there is a possibility Gleason could take Bellemore’s spot). Wings Coach Mike Babcock will have the ability to dictate matchups a bit which should lead to regular doses of the Zetterberg/Datsyuk/Bertuzzi all night.
2) Better pace and puck movement. The Canes regressed back to their preseason struggles in the past 2 losses in terms of ability to move the puck from tape to tape and up the ice with any speed and cohesion. The team spent most of both games either hemmed in its own end battling for and mostly losing pucks on the walls or struggling to get the puck at least to the center line to dump it in to at least get fresh bodies on the ice for the next siege. I think you can write some of it off to the level of competition, the style that the opponents play, the Canes mix and match lineup and also physical fatigue. But now 21 games into the season, I am becoming increasingly worried that the book is out on the Canes who are light on puck-moving defensemen and can be stymied with intense pressure on the forecheck from the face-off circles to the center line. With fresher legs, the hope is that the Canes can right the ship in terms of moving the puck north-south.
3) Offense. The Canes will need to earn more scoring chances of the above average variety. The options to do so are many: A new top line with Skinner (who was playing real well) inserted, the power play (also with Skinner’s help), the JStaal line which has been very good intermittently of late, etc. Something needs to click otherwise this game becomes another game where the Canes try to scratch out 2 goals from not enough chances and then make it stand up against a Wings team that has some pretty good offensive weapons. The Canes have been very good making this formula work of late, but I am skeptical that there is a path to consistent winning against good teams without pushing the goal-scoring dial above the less than 2 per game of late.
Here is what I am watching early to get a read on where the game is headed:
--Cam Ward. If he is in net, does he look like the reasonably comfortable Ward from the 2nd half of the Bruins game? Or does he look like he is not seeing the puck well and fighting it from early in that game as he tries to shake the rust off?
UPDATE PER TWITTER COMMENTS FROM @Ice_Chip COMING OUT OF MORNING SKATE: Looks like Peters might get start.
--Speed and jump. The Canes looked fatigued and slow to pucks in both the past 2 losses. Does 2 days off help them regain skating speed and jump? Or are they just mired in a physical rut right now maybe partially compounded by the puck-moving issues that see them playing too many minutes chasing the puck?
--Right side of Canes 2nd pairing D. This has been Bellemore’s spot but could see Gleason in it too. Regardless, the matchup for much of the night will be a big, physical Canes #4 defenseman against Zetterberg/Datsyuk running much of their offense through that side of the ice with Bertuzzi going to the net from the other side. Does Bellemore (or Gleason or whoever) look like they are going to have a crisp, good-skating night defensively in which case he can handle this? Or does it look like a mismatch that Babcock will exploit all night to the tune of offense and scoring?
Puck drops about 7:30pm on Fox SportSouth. With another tough Boston matchup looming on Saturday, Canes need to prey on an uncharacteristically struggling Wings team and cut the losing streak short at 2 games.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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