What is the difference between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Carolina Hurricanes in terms of points in the standings? A quick check of the standings yields a simple answer of 5 points. But when you dig a bit deeper, the only real difference is overtime. In non-overtime games, the Lightning is a modest 4-4. In non-overtime games the Carolina Hurricanes are a pretty similar 4-5. But Tampa is 4-0 in overtime for the max 8 additional points, and the Hurricanes are a disappointing 0-4 in overtime for the minimum 4 points. There folks is the difference between treading water around .500 and climbing a decent amount above it. But the flipside is that after trying to say that the Canes and Lightning are not that far apart, I would be cheating if I did not admit noticing that Tampa’s goal differential is a pretty strong +10 while Carolina’s is a much weaker minus 7.
With the volume of moving parts mostly due to injuries, any Canes game report these days must come with a “who’s playing” update. If you checked out yesterday for Halloween, the biggest news is that the Canes signed Manny Malhotra who was previously on an AHL tryout contract to a 2-way contract and recalled him to play in this game. If you missed it, I posted my thoughts on Malhotra in a blog Thursday afternoon. You can find that
HERE. Out for sure are Jeff Skinner (out for weekend for sure), Kevin Westgarth (also out for weekend) and probably Radek Dvorak (he is on IR, is eligible to be recalled Friday but seems unlikely to suit up). At last check at practice, the 1st 2 lines were those from opening night – Tlusty/EStaal/Semin and Gerbe/JStaal/Dwyer. The bottom 2 lines once Malhotra is inserted will probably be Ruutu/Nash/Lindholm and Bowman/Malhotra/Sutter. Bellemore is practicing and expected to return Friday, so it is unclear if he will play, who might sit because of it or if Muller might instead go with 7 defenseman and less 1 forward.
Tampa comes in playing fairly well at 8-4 tied for 2nd place in the Atlantic Division and having won 3 of their last 4. After the Lecavalier buyout and departure of a couple young forwards who provided scoring depth last year in Cory Conacher and Benoit Pouliout, the forward core looks different. But do not let the reduction of marquee names and the loss of a couple players fool you. The Malone/Stamkos/St. Louis line is right up there with the best in the league having notched 17 goals in 12 games, and equally impressive is the team’s scoring depth. The 2nd line of Purcell/Killorn/Filppula has a solid 10 goals, and there are 7 more goals below that. When you add it up, Tampa ranks 2nd in the Eastern Conference in goals per game. Canes fans, raise your hand if you are jealous.
After 2 games of me calling for the Canes best to be better than or at least equal to the other team’s best with 2 big flops, the schedule of course offers another big challenge to do so. St. Louis and Stamkos are obviously elite players and are on top of their games early in the 2013-14 season.
If you can push past the 3-game slide leading into it, I think game calls out the exact challenge and roles that I went on and on about leading into the season. On home ice, Canes coach Kirk Muller should be able to dictate matchups a bit. Against this crew, that should mean Sekera/Faulk and Gerbe/JStaal/Dwyer tasked with the difficult task of playing most of the night against Stamko and St. Louis. If that line breaks even, that is a phenomenal result and puts the ball squarely on the tee for the Canes scoring line to win their battle and win a hockey game. Even a minus 1 (including power play goals for Tampa) would be decent and give the Canes a chance.
Based on that, my keys to the game are:
1) Malone/Stamkos/St. Louis. As noted above, the best bet is that it is Sekera/Faulk and Gerbe/JStaal/Dwyer who see most of their ice time. It is very difficult to completely shut them down, but they must be contained for the Canes to stay in this game.
2) Special teams. Best would probably be for the Canes to play this game at even strength. The Canes power play has shown signs of life of late, but it is still a bit of a work in progress, and the penalty kill which was strong early has not been as dominant of late. Tampa is 6th and 9th on the power play and penalty kill respectively on the season, while the Canes are 20th and 21st.
3) A hero…or 2 even. I know I am starting to sound like a broken record, but when 2 teams with elite players match up, more often than not the game is decided by those players. They get the most ice time. They play the key special teams minutes. And they have the greatest potential to just go off and win a hockey game. Alexander Semin has quietly strung together a few pretty good games punctuated by what might have been his strongest effort of the season against Pittsburgh on Monday. It is hard to see it amongst team’s hockey wreckage over the past few games, but I think at least Semin is rounding into form. Can he have a game and get it done himself or somehow pull 1 or both of his line mates along with him? There are of course other options, but #28 seems closest to being on a path where you could actually expect or at least reasonably hope for ‘hero-ness.’
4) The right mix of patience and desperation. At some point the Canes need to get the 1st period monkey off their back. Lately they have seemed to oscillate between just not nearly enough jump and fire (Pens, Avs) and actually too much trying to make things happen by taking risks to try to make a play and creating offense in the other direction (Wild). The Canes do need to come out and skate, hit things and play like their hair is on fire for a change. But there is a fine line between doing that within the confines of what has been a better defensive system versus abandoning it in terms of cheap offense.
What else I am watching:
--Manny Malhotra’s mobility. I think the faceoff part of the game will be like riding a bike for him. He should be fine defensively. But at age 33 and after playing only 9 games last year, the question is whether he can get up to speed again.
--A higher gear. Both Tuomo Ruutu and Elias Lindholm have had the start to their season derailed by injuries missing parts of training camp and also parts of the regular season. Before the season started, both of these players figured to be in the top 9 and reasonable contributors offensively. Ruutu is about 3 weeks deep into his restarted season, so that being close to what preseason is should be about enough time to shake of the rust and hit regular season form. I do not think we have seen that yet, but it seems reasonable to think it is coming soon. Elias Lindholm will be making his 3rd start since a 2-week layoff after barely getting healthy to start the season. Each is on pace for about 25 scoring points over an 82-game season. Especially with Jeff Skinner out, that is not going to cut it in terms of secondary scoring if the Canes are to collect more than 2 goals more frequently and win at least some hockey games with offense.
--A Sekera/Faulk rebound. After starting the season incredibly strong, that pairing has been more up and down lately. Sekera had a couple rough games and even Faulk’s level of play has middled a bit. They were on the ice opposite Sidney Crosby for all 3 (and Kunitz for 2) Pens goals. Ideal might be the chance for a bounce back game against a team with less elite fire power, but that is not how the schedule works out with St. Louis and Stamkos rolling into town next.
At the end of the day I think it takes 4 things to win:
1) Jordan Staal and his line need to have a great game defensively.
2) Someone needs to step up offensively and drive 2 scores which makes a reasonable path to 3 or maybe even 4 goals.
4) Justin Peters needs to do just what he did on Monday which is play a decent game and give his team a chance.
What say you Canes fans? Can the good guys halt the streak at 3? Or is this game a recipe for hot and confident (St. Louis & Stamkos) running roughshod over tension and struggles?
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