Admittedly, I'm not much of a prognosticator. I told anyone who’d listen that Matt Barkley would be a better NFL quarterback than Andrew Luck, I thought Devan Dubnyk would play his way into the Canadian Olympic team discussion, and I very nearly bet heavy timber on the New Jersey Devils winning the Stanley Cup. My betting record is worse than the Washington Generals' winning percentage. However, I can say one thing with absolutely certainty, on par with the sun setting this evening and rising tomorrow morning. The Edmonton Oilers are not going to make the playoffs.
The Oilers are 13 games into another season plagued by injuries, disappointment and losses. The Oilers are 3-8-2, and find themselves staring up at every other team in the Western Conference standings, despite playing as many games as any team in the conference. Sure there have been a couple bright spots (Arcobello, Perron, Petry, Bachman) but the overall picture is awfully bleak. How bleak? Going back to our tried-and-true Standard Happiness Rule – Games played + (games played/7) – which is detailed
here the Oilers should have 14.85 points at this point to find themselves on playoff pace.
In reality, which can be cold and unforgiving as an Alberta winter, the Oilers have eight points, which puts them well off the playoff pace. Factor in the injuries the club is currently dealing with, and Craig MacTavish already finds himself having to answer this question: Is the season worth salvaging? The answer is a simple yes or no, but the implications of each response could drastically alter the makeup of the roster and the course of action moving forward. It’s important to look at the thought process behind each response, and MacTavish’s options if he decides yea or nay.
Yes (An Unhealthy Level of Optimism)
In order to contend for the playoffs, the Oilers have to come as close to 94 points as possible. There are 69 games remaining, meaning the team would have to go 43-26 the rest of the way just to put themselves in the race for the playoffs. In all honesty, taking everything into consideration, there might be a better chance that monkeys fly out of my butt. However, if MacTavish decides that the season is worth salvaging, he needs to make some moves to bolster a roster that’s been severely hampered, if not decimated, by injuries.
If this team is looking to make a legitimate run at the playoffs, then MacTavish can’t afford to wait for everyone to get healthy. That, in itself, is a huge assumption anyway, especially when you consider the way opposing teams continue to take runs at the Oilers’ skill players. We all know who’s missing, but Jeff Petry and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are fortunate that they’re not among those in the infirmary after a couple scary incidents over the weekend. Bottom line, crossing your fingers and hoping that the Oilers can get healthy is not an adequate solution to a time-sensitive problem.
In order to address their issues on the blueline or shore up their goaltending, the Oilers would have to deal from their area of strength, specifically the prospect system. This could include dealing promising defensemen like Oscar Klefbom or Darnell Nurse in exchange for proven NHL players who could help the roster immediately. Nail Yakupov’s name continues to be bandied about, and if MacTavish could turn Magnus Paajarvi into David Perron you have to trust that he would score a significant return if he decided to pull the trigger on a Yakupov deal.
No (A Depressing Level of Realism)
It’s inordinately frustrating for Oiler fans to think about wasting another year wallowing in the Western Conference basement. However, barring a remarkable turnaround, that’s the depressing reality the Oilers face only 13 games into the season. If MacTavish resigns himself to the fact that the playoffs are unattainable, he’ll have to decide whether players like Ales Hemsky are part of the long-term plan. Hemsky has played surprisingly well, and since he’s slated to be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason he could (once again) be an attractive piece of trade bait for a team interested in adding some secondary scoring.
Ironically, branding the season unsalvageable could turn the Oilers from buyers to sellers in the goaltending market. One game was all it took for many to believe that Richard Bachman could end up supplanting Dubnyk as the team’s starting goaltender, and when you look at all the current injuries to netminders around the league it might make some sense to dangle Dubnyk. The return might not be stellar, but if the Oilers could add a physical veteran defenseman it might be the right move. What are the other options for Dubnyk? He’s an impending UFA as well, meaning decisions are looming.
It’s going to be awfully difficult beating the Buffalo Sabres in a race to the bottom, but the Oilers might be better off tanking once again. The names and faces might change in Edmonton from year to year, but the story remains the same. I understand that patience is wearing thin after a playoff drought that extends back to 2006, but what other choice do the Oilers have than continue to stockpile young talent that could eventually draw the team toward that bright light at the end of a very dark tunnel? The only question left is what do we brand the 2013-14 Oilers season: Play bad for Ekblad or crap start for Reinhart?
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