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Even though a new coach patrols behind the bench for the Vancouver Canucks they find themselves in a familiar place, sitting close to the top of their division and holding on as a top team in the Western Conference. Their top heavy strength will present a difficult test for the St. Louis Blues after making the most of a week lull in the schedule.
The Sedin twins, Daniel and Henrik, have powered the Canucks to seven wins in twelve game. Five of which have some in eight road games. Combined the brothers have seven goals and 26 points. Netminder Roberto Luongo is experiencing a renaissance of sorts as the clear number one for John Tortorella. He is 6-3-1 overall, but is 4-0-1 over his last five games. Well known troublemaker, defenseman Kevin Bieksa, has a bloated Plus-11, but is eating up over 23 minutes ATOI.
After those well known names those taking up a large chunk of playing time are the usual suspects. Blueliners Jason Garrison, Dan Hamhuis, and Alex Edler, along with forward Ryan Kesler, are on the ice for 20+ minutes per game as well. Some you may not recognize are going to play big roles in this contest as well. Centerman Mike Santorelli and defenseman Chris Tanev are both at 19 minutes and change consistently. They have 4 goals and 12 points, all but on helper came at even strength, between the two of them.
Contain the Sedins, keep the game at 5 on 5, and make Loungo move. The game plan is recognizable, but not as easy to execute as it is to point out. With virtually no injuries to speak of and the last change, Ken Hitchcock will have all the tools use to dismantle the high end machine needed within his grasp.
Tortorella isn't as lucky. Key scoring threat and instigator Alex Burrows is probably out of the lineup (though he did skate earlier today and could dress) as are a handful of depth/role players. Speedy David Booth, someone that could be employed to counter the team speed St. Louis brings, is out due to an injury sustained in the Canucks last game. Fellow forwards Jordan Schroeder, Dale Weise, and Jannik Hansen are both not playing as well. Recalled from Utica, where the Blues' old AHL franchise in Peoria moved to, are Pascal Pelletier and Darren Archibald. Combined they have 13 NHL games (all Pelletier's) played.
Lineups
Aside from the go to five man unit, there are a few changes in the lineup. Based on developments from practice over the week here are the projected lines and pairings.
Steen - Backes - Oshie
Paajarvi - Roy - Tarasenko
Schwartz - Berglund -
Stewart
Morrow - Sobotka - Reaves
Bouwmeester - Pietrangelo
Jackman - Shattenkirk
Leopold - Polak
*Note: Bold = change
I discussed the forward line changes earlier in the week. The method to the coaching staff's madness holds up to criticism, for now. A review comes following the game.
On the backend a shift has been made to promote balance by shifting Barret Jackman off his pairing with Roman Polak. With the two gritty, bruising defenders split up there is hopefully less opportunity for the second and third pairing to be hemmed in their own zone. Jackman and Polak are better without the puck than Jordan Leopold and Kevin Shattenkirk. The latter two are better with the frozen piece of rubber than numbers 5 and 46. Hitch did advise during training camp not to get married to the pairings at the start of the season. This type of break up was always in the cards. It just hadn't been pulled out yet.
Reuniting Jackman and Shattenkirk is a longtime coming. The two have played over 1,100 minutes at even strength together since 2011-12 and been very productive. At least compared to when the Boston Res Sox fan is with Leopold.
2011-12 & 2012-13
Jackman/Shattenkirk: .789 GF/20 / .439 GA/20 = 64.3 GF%
Leopold/Shattenkirk: .492 GF/20 / .492 GA/20 = 50.0 GF%
Jackman/Shattenkirk: 17.96 CF/20 / 15.63 CA/20 = 53.5 CF%
Leopold/Shattenkirk: 19.18 CF/20 / 14.36 CA/20 = 57.2 CF%
Generally speaking being paired with Leopold leads to greater possession while partnering with Jackman leads to more goals scored and fewer allowed. Seeing as the Blues are making a concerted effort to score more rather than maintain possession at all costs, the change makes sense from both a philosophical and analytical perspective. Further, seeing as the
Blues are 15th in the league in CF% at 49.9% presently the 4% dip between pairings isn't a concern when the percentage of the pairing is still above the teams average. In short, there isn't a significant loss of possession capability be making a change to the pairing to be a detriment.
In Goal
Jaroslav Halak will get the start in goal. No real shocker here as the likely Olympian is 5-1-0 with a 2.26 GAA, .919 save %, and one shutout to his credit.
Luongo is the probable starter. Newcomer Eddie Lack could get the nod due to the Canucks finishing off a back to back set tonight.
What to Watch For
-- How tightly the matchup game is played. Torts is well known for relying on his star players. Hitch has been rolling with the Backes line in combination with the top pairing, with near exclusivity, to restrain the opposition's best forwards. The Sedins are at 60% and 59% in terms of Offensive Zone Start %. All the pieces of the Blues' top five man unit are 45% or lower in the same category. In terms of minutes played all mentioned are at 30% of their teams total even strength minutes played or higher. A rested fast and physical group versus a tired duo bodes well for the home team.
-- Which shuffled line looks the best. With Derek Roy's line focused on speed through transition and attempting to score off the rush the potential for big momentum swinging counter attacks if Vancouver gets sloppy. Conversely the Patrik Berglund line has the size, skill, and willingness to grind that could wear down the Canucks defense and produce chances off extended cycles.
-- Penalty trouble and who gets in to it. Vancouver has a top 10 kill once again, but their ability to convert up a man is in the cellar. St. Louis is pretty much the opposite. Hard not to give the edge to the visitors when the Blues' penalty kill has not risen to the occasion as frequently as it typically has. Plus, keeping the personnel at five a side means the full roster depth muscle can be flexed and push down an injury and travel fatigued squad.
Pick the Goal Scorer
Get your guesses in for the Pick the Goal Scorer contest.
It's simple to play. Just post your guess for who scores the first goal for the Blues tonight in the comments before puck drop. Correct guesses will be totaled throughout the season and the the person(s) with the most correct will win a Blues themed prize.
Thanks for reading!
St Louis Blues Blogger • 
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