Promising as perestroika, puzzling as the politburo, Edmonton Oilers winger Nail Yakupov has received a season’s worth of derision and doubt, and we’re only 10 games into the 2013-14 season. It seems that his future is constantly being predicted, his potential is calibrated and recalibrated after each game, and he’s become both the squeaky wheel and the focal point of a squad trying to find its footing. In fact, he’s become the embodiment of the Oilers, the personification of a team that’s as offensively gifted and alluring as any other, but defensively suspect and raw as the backside of a bovine.
There are more questions than answers when it comes to Yakupov and his future. Nobody is complete sure if he’ll be traded or not, nobody knows what kind of return he could garner if he was, and nobody can tell if the Oilers would ultimately regret a decision to move the first overall pick in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. Trying to assess the situation is a little like staring into a Magic Eye puzzle that refuses to come into focus. However, we could receive some clarity during the next month.
One month. That’s the projected recovery timetable for Oilers left winger Taylor Hall, who’s currently on the mend after suffering a knee injury on Saturday afternoon against the Ottawa Senators. One month. That’s the audition period for Yakupov, who has replaced Hall and been pressed into first-line duty alongside Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle. There’s a whole lot we don’t know about the talented Russian and his future. However, let’s focus on four facts that we do know, in an attempt to draw some conclusions about Yakupov and what’s at stake during the next month.
1. Yakupov’s play hasn’t warranted a top-six role
I wouldn’t go so far as calling Yakupov the worst player on the team through the first 10 games, but he’s definitely in the conversation. After sitting two of those as a healthy scratch, the second-year pro has only one assist through eight games. There’s simply no way to put a positive spin on that lack of production, especially when you consider the power play time he’s received, and you can’t argue that he’s been good enough to warrant top-six minutes over Hall, Eberle, David Perron or Ales Hemsky.
However, Yakupov is skating on the first line again tonight. Hall’s injury is a terrible turn of events for both a player and team that have proven to be either injury-prone or simply cursed in recent years. But if there’s one silver lining to the darkest of clouds it’s that it opens the door for Yakupov, giving him an extended audition on the top line that he wouldn’t have received otherwse. If he can’t produce playing with Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle forget about a scoring line, he probably doesn’t belong on an NHL roster.
2. A long-term extension with a $6 million annual salary awaits
For better or worse, Yakupov’s contract negotiations are baked right into the Oilers roster. Eberle is making $6 million per year through 2019, Hall is making the same amount through 2020, and Nugent-Hopkins is making the same amount (starting next season) through 2021. I’m pretty slow on the uptake at times, but that looks like a pattern to me, and it’s one that Yakupov could become a part of if he stays in Edmonton. However, that’s becoming a bigger “if” with each game that he fails to find the scoresheet.
If the Oilers are going to make a similar commitment to Yakupov they’re going to have to see a lot more than he’s shown through the first 10 games. That’s one reason why trading Yakupov has become such a viable (and widely-rumored) option for the Oilers. First overall picks get paid, and paid well. Rather than committing themselves to a player they don’t fully believe in, this season would be the time to deal him, when both the Oilers and any potential trading partners have time to negotiate a contract that won’t hamstring them in the future.
3. Not every first overall NHL draft pick pans out
Relax! Don’t leave the blog! Just stick with me on this one, because despite your initial reaction this is indeed a fact. Edmonton has three consecutive first overall draft picks on its roster (Hall, 2010; Nugent-Hopkins, 2011; Yakupov, 2012) and while it would be very beneficial for Oiler fans if all three turn out to be star players, there’s no guarantee that will be the case. Busts like Alexandre Daigle or Patrik Stefan prove that you can’t assume a player will justify a team’s decision to draft him with the first overall pick.
Of course there’s some amount of risk involved with each draft selection, and that risk increases or decreases in relation to a player’s draft position. We can’t simply assume that a player will pan out because he was highly touted as an 18-year-old. I’m hopeful that Yakupov can find his scoring touch. However, each season I’m hopeful that the Oilers will make the playoffs, and that optimism hasn’t gotten me very far. It’s time for some results. Plus, hearing Bob Stauffer predict that “tonight’s the night” for Yakupov’s first goal of the season got old three games ago.
4. There are no comparables to Yakupov’s situation
People are coming out of the woodwork with a variety of stats that indicate a player’s first X amount of games don’t provide any indication of their long-term career potential. I’ve heard so many people reminding others not to panic, referring to Joe Thornton or Vincent Lecavalier putting up X number of goals in their first Y number of games, that I could puke doorknobs. It doesn’t matter at all. Daigle had 31 goals in his first 132 games. Dale Hawercuk had 45 goals in his first 80. Does it really matter? Not one single iota.
During the next month, let your eyes be the judge; not for what Yakupov will be five year from now, but for what he is today. Thus far, is that something you would like to see more of? Through the first 10 games, my answer is “no.” In fact, it’s a resounding “hell no, and if you ask me something that stupid ever again I’ll drive your head through a sheet of drywall.” Sorry folks, my inner John Scott came out there for a second. Bottom line is this: Patience is fine, but it never hurts to weigh your options. Keep that in mind during Yakupov's month-long audition.
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