Great day at the Caniac Carnival today. What is always most encouraging about this great day is the volume of children decked out in Canes gear. The Canes core is strong, but it is still growing by leaps and bounds every year.
I will put up a broader "state of the team" type write-up that covers where the team is after only 4 days of training camp in the next day or so, but here are my bullet point thoughts on the Red/White scrimmage this afternoon:
--Eric Staal/Alexander Semin combination. This pair looks ready to go regular season tomorrow. Racking up a bunch of scoring points against the 48-deep roster is not telling so much as the reads and timing. Every time Semin dangled dodged or whatever, the next thing that happened was a puck right on someone's stick (often Staal's) in a position to shoot.
--Radek Dvorak. He played a very heady game consistently being the "2nd stick" coming out of the defensive zone. With some defenseman not so much being the "skate with the puck" variety, the ability of forwards to read the forecheck a bit and make themselves available for a quick first pass ("2nd stick") is what enables the team to get moving north/south quickly, backs the forecheck up to the neutral zone and creates the chance to enter the offensive zone with the puck (versus dumping it) and with speed. Cory Stillman is the all-time Canes master of this role. The 05-06 team would have ranked #1 or #2 (Sabres were darn good too) at rushing the puck up the ice in that new NHL that allowed 2 line passes for the first time and eliminated all the obstruction that defenders used to slow faster players. If you think about the Canes defense corps that year, none of Wesley, Wallin, Commodore or AWard would qualify as skating/puck-moving defenseman. Hedican could skate, but he was really not so much a puck mover in the maneuvering sense. FKaberle was the only 1 of the 6 who I would consider to be a skater and puck mover. So how did the team get up the ice so fast? First, the forwards could skate. But the subtle but probably more important factor was the heady forwards who created short passing options to get the offense moving north-south and to quickly trap aggressive forecheckers too deep in the zone and get the puck behind that first wave and enable the team to enter the offensive zone with a man advantage. So back to 2013-14, that same skill set will be important for helping a Gleason/Komisarek (current pair) advance the puck versus getting hemmed in and needing to win it more than once. Same will hold if Harrison swaps into 1 of these 2 spots. Dvorak seemed to have very good awareness of the skill sets of players on the ice with him. He regularly provided short outlets to Gleason/Komisarek and others but was also pretty quick up the ice a couple times when Ryan Murphy had the puck and started moving.
--Zach Boychuk. He has by far and away been the best player not already with an NHL job so far in training camp. He notched 2 goals in Saturday's scrimmage. He had 3-4 real good offensive plays: a forecheck steal quickly fed to a rushing teammate for a good scoring chance, the late mid-air bat in on his own rebound that was ruled no-goal because his stick was (would love to check replay on it) ruled above the cross bar, another play where he weaved through a couple defenders for a good quick shot on net. Maybe more significantly was his effort, determination and peskiness on the forecheck. He skated hard and hit bodies whenever given the opportunity. He needs to score to be an NHLer and so far in camp he is, but maybe most telling about his attitude and effort is an exchange between him and Gleason. He ran at Gleason pretty hard in the corner trying to pry a puck loose on the forecheck. Gleason had some kind words plus a quick cross check and a couple more jabs. When 1 of his teammates freed the puck up 10 seconds later Boychuk went straight to the front of the net to provide traffic where he again met up with Tim Gleason and a couple more jabs. He stayed. And he appeared to jaw with Gleason on the way off the ice. It is too early to tell if he will make it or not, but it is very clear that he wants it and is willing to pay the price.
---Jared Staal. He understands the kind of game he needs to play to be an NHLer. He consistently does all of the things you are supposed to do with a big frame: bang people on the forecheck, go to the front of the net on offense, etc. I think skating or the play of others still seem likely to keep him off the roster, but his consistency is encouraging.
--Brock McGinn. I still like his style of play and his potential long-term, but per my previous blog, my first check on whether he can quickly adjust to the NHL speed yielded a "not yet" reading. He did not play horribly or look out of place in today's scrimmage, but he was not a noticeable factor doing what he needs to do (be Tuomo Ruutu lite creating havoc on the forecheck and hitting people) to play at the NHL level.
--Zac Dalpe. He looked comfortable and solid playing mostly on a line with Ruutu/JStaal. If Muller does separate Skinner and JStaal as I have suggested, Dalpe has to be the early front-runner to be the 3rd on the JStaal line. He scored a goal going hard to the net on a beautiful Jeff Skinner play. He looked more comfortable with the pace than the younger kids. And he just generally played decent hockey today.
--Jeff Skinner. For a shoot-first type of player, his assist on Dalpe's goal was a thing of beauty. It was his second and thirdish hesitation that pulled the goalie enough that when the puck found Dalpe's stick it was an easy tap in.
--Drayson Bowman. He looked Tlustyish filling in for #19 who is supposed to be back early this week. He notched a power play goal in the first and a nice assist off the rush.
--Victor Rask. He had a couple times where he kept the puck too long in bad places (his own blue line on 1 and center ice during a line change on the other) needing to learn to more quickly decide if he has a good option or other times making a safe and simple play. You cannot just skate your way to a better choice at the NHL level like you can in juniors. He did hit a post later and had some decent plays offensively.
--Mike Murphy. The goaltending in general was pretty good. All 4 goalies played 1 1/2 periods and allowed only 4 goals total. 1 was off the power play and 2 (or was it 3) were off the rush. I think it was Murphy who gave up a 1 of the breakaway passing goals where he did not have much of a chance. He was then tested by an Eric Staal solo breakaway and a bunch of other good chances and did not look fazed. The goalie depth chart is set in stone more than anything else, but I wanted to give credit where it is due.
--Aaron Palushaj. He was real quiet - too quiet maybe.
--Tim Gleason/Mike Komisarek. I would be curious to hear Muller's thought process on the current defense pairings. I voted awhile back to pair Sekera/Faulk to be the first true #1 pairing the team has had in awhile. That is the case so far. And Muller seems to be trying Gleason/Komisarek early. They have skated together for most things during the first 4 days of training camp including today's scrimmage. Then you have Harrison/Murphy which seemed to make sense prior to the Hainsey signing. But even with Hainsey signing, Muller is still going with Harrison/Murphy and youth player/Hainsey. My wild guess is that Muller wants to get Murphy as much time as possible playing with a real NHL stay-home defenseman since this is likely to be his partner at the NHL level either this year or in the future. It also provides the best option to evaluate his readiness and potential roles for 2013-14. But back to Gleason/Komisarek, the pair had a "how not to" moment for a goal against. Komisarek turned the puck over cleanly to Semin at the blue line and then Tim Gleason failed to take away the pass on a 2-on-1 leading to a back door tap in that Ward had zero chance on. These plays have a bad effect. On a breakaway Gleason's job is to take away the pass; Ward's job is to play the shot. When you have too many times where the defenseman does not do the defenseman textbook job, the goalie loses trust then it becomes a free for all with too many holes when the goalie starts trying to do 2 jobs cheating on the pass and giving the shooter too much. Per my previous comments on Dvorak, this pairing (or with Harrison) is fairly well suited to line up against other teams' big grinding 3rd and 4th lines. But the key is to have to only win those physical puck battles once and then get the puck to the other end of the rink. Neither is a skater/puck carrier, so the duo will look much better if it can get some Cory Stillman-type help once they win it.
--Ryan Murphy. Trying not to sound like a Ryan Murphy hater because I am not. I am high on his potential long-term but am on record as thinking it is going to take a couple years rounding out his defensive game. Sunday's scrimmage just made me feel stronger about that opinion. When he got the puck on his stick with some room to skate it was breathtaking. It always has been. But for a job where priority one is defense/playing without the puck on your stick and seeking a role where the biggest thing is not to make too many mistakes and lose games, I still think Murphy needs time. He had 1 rush where he carried the puck impressively to the offensive zone face-off circle then pulled up and dangled looking for a teammate. With no real good options he tried to send the puck cross ice but managed to lace it behind a forward at the offensive blue line instead of pushing the puck deep and making sure he was behind it. No harm resulted on that play, but it had 2-on-1 or 1-on-none breakaway the other way written all over it. He went to the wrong player on a 2-on-2 resulting in a shot off the post against where his goalie had no chance from point blank range. The Eric Staal breakaway occurred on his side of the ice with him so far behind the play that he could not even pressure the play from behind. The key to being an offensive defenseman is the ability to calculate risk/reward accurately on the fly and decide when to push and when to wait for next time. People like to talk about Murphy's size, but I think the decision-making is actually the area where Murphy needs more minutes against better competition importantly with coaching to help him learn. Shorter version: In a 3rd pairing defenseman role where even 1 "big oops" per game is too many, I think Murphy needs more time to become more of a calculated risk taker versus a player with the switch always on "create offense.'
--Elias Lindholm. He played some at center and a few shifts on wing with JStaal/Ruutu. He did not do anything spectacular to stand out, but he showed good sense for positioning supporting the puck both on offense and defense and did not look like he was in over his head with the NHL pace.
--Jordan Staal. He was assertive with the puck and looked good. He had 3-4 times where beat or nearly beat a defender but just never quite got the last step for a goal. If he skates like he did today with the puck the scoring will come.
--Andrej Sekera/Justin Faulk. I am on record as hoping that Muller gives this pairing time. It has been awhile since the Canes have had a solid top pairing that is just good and sound across both players such that you can play them in all situations. The key will be for the unit to prove capable as a duo on the power play. Neither is a pure power play point man or playmaker, but on the ice with Semin maybe it works fine just having 2 solid anchors who put the puck on the net or into traffic when given the opportunity with Semin handling more of the puck distribution.
Probably tonight, I will take a shot at pulling together "what it all means" through 4 days of training camp in terms of the team's prospects and opening day roster.
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