As a known player who spent most of his career in our division, Ron Hainsey is a bit easier to evaluate and understand in terms of skill set and role potential. Everyone is doing all kinds of research to gain a better feel for what he brings to the Canes blue line. Shutdown line took a decent dive into some of the advanced stats. You can find that
HERE. I like advanced stats as much as the next guy when used WITH not instead of context and real game viewing, but oftentimes simple numbers can also provide significant insight. Here are 4 quick stats for Ron Hainsey:
1) 7 out of 8. He has played greater than 75 games per season in 7 of the past 8 (prorated 2013-14 obviously) with only 2011-12 shortened to 56 games due to 2 injuries. The Canes do not have the luxury of depth on the blue line. Jay Harrison is a solid 3rd pairing defenseman, but I think he is overslotted if he has to play in the top 4 for an extended period of time. Mike Komisarek was once a top 4, but right now his is just trying to right the ship after the Toronto debacle. And past them, the AHL depth is light on NHL experience. There is random injury risk for any NHL player, but getting someone who has a history of staying on the ice is important.
2) 22ish per game. Another key requirement of the job is to be able to steadily eat up minutes. Hainsey is not an up-and-comer looking to grow into a top 4 role and top 4 minutes. He is experienced in this role and capable of handling the heavy workload. In the past 4 years, his average ice time has clocked in at a steady 23, 21, 21 and 21 minutes per game.
3) 3-4 minutes down to 30 seconds. One of Pitkanen’s key roles is that of power play point man. Minus McBain and Corvo and without any proven forward point men, the team is light on proven power play experience. Gleason, Harrison and Komisarek just are not this guy. Though not pure power play quarterbacks, I think Sekera and Faulk will be fine. But that still leaves 2 openings with Joni out for the season. A look at Hainsey’s recent scoring and power play production is not encouraging. Over the past 3 years he has had exactly 0 power play goals and 1 power assist in each of the 3 campaigns. This looks no different that the trio of Gleason, Harrison and Komisarek.
But here’s the thing. It is a function of role. Enstrom and Byfuglien ate up as much of the blue line power play time as possible and other players jumped ahead of Hainsey for the scraps that were left. Hainsey’s recent power play ice time per game was 0:35 in 2012-13, 0:43 in 2011-12, 0:28 in 2010-11. If you look back to the pre-Byfuglien and Enstrom days in Atlanta, he was a mainstay on the Thrashers power play logging 3:44, 4:28 and 3:43 per game in 2006-07, 2007-08 and 2009-10 respectively. And guess what. It showed in his scoring. In those seasons he put up 23, 23 and 18 power play points with a healthy helping of 19 power play goals over the 3 years. By virtue of the power play boost, he was over 30 scoring points total in each of those years.
It will be some time before we figure out if/how it works, but the damper that Hainsey’s scoring stats puts on hope for power play help is misleading. He will certainly get some work in this role and could really surprise with what he does with it.
4) #4 with 123. In 2012-13, Ron Hainsey finished 4th in the entire NHL with 123 blocked shots. That tops Jay Harrison’s Canes-leading 110. Hainsey can skate and regularly uses it to get in shooting lanes especially when on the penalty kill. The thing with good shot blockers is not just the number of shots that they do get a piece of but also the amount of shots that get passed up and never even taken because the shooting lane is closed. Cam Ward will appreciate this.
Canes fans should get their first look at Hainsey in game-like action in Sunday’s scrimmage after he joins the team for practice on Saturday.
You can find similar with a couple more details in yesterday's blog, but might clear resolution of the Pitkanen situation and its financial results enable Rutherford to make 1 more player move? I think the possibility is there. The details are complex, but the Canes should be able to recoup most of Pitkanen's cost in terms of salary cap via LTIR if they need to. In losing Pitkanen for the full year and signing Hainsey for only $2M, the team went from a available salary cap of $4.9M to up to $7.9M. Equally importantly, in swapping the 2 players, it eliminated the need to save a bunch of $ in reserve in case something went wrong with Pitkanen later. Maybe equally importantly is the impact on real $. Exact terms are not known, but the Canes should recoup a significant portion of Pitkanen's $4.5M salary via insurance. With Hainsey costing only $2M it is possible that the team is $1M or slightly more richer in terms of real $. I know that there are quotes out there to suggest that maybe the Canes are not high on Morrow's list, but at some point beggers can't be choosers. At a minimum, it seems like Canes Coach Kirk Muller's ties to Morrow could lure him to Raleigh for a tryout. He would not be committed, and it would give him somewhere to work out while his agent continued to work the phones. It would also be a chance to kick the tires on the Canes organization as a possible destination. If Hainsey's discount is any indication of the market rate for those still unsigned, maybe the Canes can get Morrow for 1 year at $2M? I am still concerned about the potential volume of inexperience in the bottom 6 but with the defense shored up am willing to give the current roster a go to start the season. And I am on record as being 50/50 on Morrow with my concern being mobility at this stage of his career. But the Canes need to act with a bit of playoff desperation BEFORE there is playoff desperation. For a low-cost/low-risk $2M/1-year deal, I would take the positives in terms of experience, size, track record, etc. with Morrow and take my chances on the issues.
What say you Canes fans? Will Hainsey prove to be a diamond in the rough in terms of power play contribution in addition to be a safe and solid top 4 defensively? Did the $ terms of that deal combined with the finality/clarity of the Pitkanen situation give Rutherford financial flexibility for 1 more move? Who is with me that this is not a time to wait and see but rather a time to move aggressively to improve the team, risks included?
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