First, the Canes prospects won 4-3 on Traverse City yesterday on goals by Victor Rask, Sergey Tolchinsky, Zack Mitchell and Brock McGinn. You can find the team's short write-up here
HERE.
Every once in awhile I like to take a look back at prediction type blogs from seasons past. Especially for projections, there are many more misses than hits over the course of a changing 82-game season.
Just for fun, below is a blog from January with my thoughts on how the team should break out the lines. The personnel is quite different with players gone (Jokinen, Larose, Brent), the AHLers (Dalpe, Bowman, etc.) not coming into the season with an advantage, Ruutu healthy and a couple new faces. But ironically, I my general thought process for how best to use the core forwards is pretty similar. I will detail all of that in a blog probably next week.
I still like:
--Tlusty/EStaal/Semin.
--JStaal on a 2nd line focused a little bit defense-first minus Skinner with Ruutu now in tow.
--Skinner on a 3rd line as long as you can put some skating and skill with him such that Muller can get Skinner on the ice against scoring-favorable matchups and be a strong 3rd line offensively.
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BLOG FROM JANUARY 2013
Ahhhh...one of my favorite exercises as a backseat driver and hockey fan...speculating about line combinations and defense pairings that fit together like perfect puzzle pieces, at least until they get tested on the ice.
First, Tuomo Ruutu's long-term injury is a significant one for the Canes. The Canes are suddenly pretty deep in terms of scoring talent, but Ruutu was a bit of a unique puzzle piece in terms of skill set and versatility. He is the only wing of those likely to play in the top 6 and maybe even top 9 who you could call a banger. With decent skating ability to boot, guys like him are key to having a physical and effective forecheck. He is also quite versatile in a couple respects. He could have lined up at center had the Canes wanted. And he is also a good balance of being checking line capable but also being scoring line capable. But the NHL is about playing with what you have.
So here is my shot at building lines with the players available.
Tlusty / EStaal / Semin
What I like: Take 2 most prolific scorers, pair them together and go score goals. Tlusty also brings an element of defense but has enough offensive ability to hang with Semin and Staal. He also had pretty good chemistry with Staal 2nd half of last season.
What I don't like: Both Staal and Semin or more scorer than playmaker. There is nothing at all wrong with this. But ideally, I would rather have a playmaker at LW to help create scoring chances for the 2 snipers. Think Ray Whitney or Cory Stillman. Jussi Jokinen is the closest we have to this type of player and would fit well here, but someone has to center a 3rd line.
Bowman / JStaal / Dalpe
So I obviously went off the expected chart here...
What I like: Dalpe is red hot right now. I don't know if it carries over to the NHL, and I don't think this is an all-season arrangement, but I think out of the gate you give him a chance to ride his momentum on a scoring line. Bowman is more proven as a sound defensive forward at the NHL level fitting well on Sutter's line last season but has enough offensive ability to contribute. Pair the 2 kids who should hit the ground running with an elite center give it a couple weeks. The side benefit of spreading the scoring and creating some matchups is discussed below. If you get later in a tight game, you could swap in someone more experienced like Dwyer or Larose for Dalpe for some shifts.
What I don't like: Dalpe is unproven at this level and has not been able to transfer his scoring to the NHL level yet. Given that JStaal will play as many shifts as possible against the other team's best scoring line, this is a big assignment for Bowman and especially Dalpe. I actually feel comfortable that Bowman can handle at least the defensive part of it. Dalpe is very untested.
Skinner / Jokinen /Dwyer
What I like: If you have to move Jokinen down to center the 3rd line for lack of other options, I think it is a shame to waste his playmaking ability. Separately, Skinner struggled at times last year playing many more shifts as a marked player against the league's better defensemen. Spreading the offense across 3 lines and getting Skinner away from the focus lines should create more room to maneuver, some shifts against 3rd pairing defenders and a guy capable of creating scoring chances. Dwyer's defensive acumen fits well and his skating ability fits well with what would be an uptempo line. Larose is a decent option as well to play RW on such a line.
What I don't like: The only thing that I really don't like is that doing this leaves JStaal without a ton of fire power on his line.
Westgarth / Brent / Larose
What I like: Brent and Larose could be a rested 1st forward pair for the penalty kill if they skate together on the 4th line. Westgarth probably won't play a ton of minutes, but he gives you someone to play physical and play policeman if needed. I like Brent as a utility player, but I don't think he brings enough offense to jump up to the opening at 3rd line center.
13th: Nodl; Left out: Boychuk, Welsh, Wallace, etc.
I think Nodl, Larose and Dwyer could be interchangeable early until you figure out who works where chemistry-wise. I think Boychuk finds himself in the position where he needs to seize a spot on the 3rd line to stay. Westgarth is the brawn. Brent is depth at center. And the right wing slot on the 4th line will need to be PK/defense capable which is not where Boychuk fits. Welsh is exactly what the Canes need physically for the bottom half of the forward ranks, but he my gut says that he is just too light on NHL experience at this time. Nodl also has a bit of offensive upside that could fit nicely with Jokinen in Skinner if you want to play matchups a bit with this line and try to prey on lesser defenders.
A couple other comments:
--I struggle most with where to put Skinner. Skinner/EStaal/Semin feels like offense overboard to me, and Staal/Skinner were defensively horrible together early last season.
--Ideally, I would prefer to have Jokinen feeding scoring chances to either EStaal/Semin or JStaal, but I just don't see who else you put at 3rd line center. So if you have to move Jussi, at least move some offense/finishing with him.
What say you Canes fans? Is it crazy to think that guys like Dalpe and Bowman can ride their AHL rhythm right into the NHL season at least for the first 2-3 weeks? Is spreading the offense across 3 lines the way to go? Am I hanging JStaal out to dry giving him inexperienced linemates and a tough assignment defensively at the same time?
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