First, here are the Brenden Morrow poll results from yesterday. The sample size is big enough that it should represent a reasonable cross-section of Canes fans both from Twitter and HockeyBuzz.
1) Put simply with no ifs, disclaimers, etc. should the Canes sign Brenden Morrow?
80% - Yes.
20% - No.
2) Am I right to question whether mobility could be an issue for Morrow in Muller's system?
4% - No. His speed is fine.
68% - No. While he is not the fastest at this stage of his career balancing his size with some speed from his line mates will be a perfect mix.
29% - Yes. Mobility is key to Muller’s system, and Morrow might not fit for that reason alone.
3) What is your ceiling for yearly salary for Morrow?
40% - $2M or less. He needs to play for less at this stage of his career.
48% - $2.1-3.0M. He is not a $4M player at this stage of his career but you still have to pay a decent premium for his experience and leadership.
5% - $3.1M or more. You are paying for veteran leadership and you have to pay what it takes to get his attention – plus it would only be a 1 year deal.
6% - N/A. I voted not to sign him simply because of fit.
4) Would you consider offering a 2-year deal if that's what it takes?
70% - Yes. He’s worth it, and 34 really isn’t that old.
30% - No. Way too much risk for the likely price.
5) If the Canes did sign Morrow, where would you use him?
18% - 2nd line LW next to Jordan Staal/Tuomo Ruutu. That line would be a beast cycling and controlling the puck in the offensive zone.
53% - 3rd line LW probably with Lindholm and with Skinner playing on the 2nd line. He could be a nice big/physical complement to some of the younger skilled skaters likely to fill out that line.
30% - 3rd line RW with Skinner/Lindholm. Realizing that he needs to make an adjustment to play on the right side it offers some protection for the kids and looks very much like the Galchenyuk/Gallagher/Prust combination that was very successful early on in Montreal last season.
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Here is where I come down with regard to adding Brenden Morrow to the mix. The time for the Canes to get a little bit desperate about making the playoffs is before the situation actually gets desperate. By then, it is usually too late. The team is 4 years removed from playoff hockey. It has about $5M under the salary cap. I do NOT advocate just spending all of that at random, but I would definitely consider using some of it. I am not comfortable with the sheer volume of unproven players who must fill out the bottom 6 forward slots. Ask yourself this: If you took a bottom 6 of Gerbe/Lindholm/Dalpe and Bowman/Nash/Dwyer is that really anything more than a decent start to an AHL team? I am not so sure.
=> So for question #1, I vote for the simple version of yes on Brenden Morrow, but I do have a bunch of disclaimers/caveats.
While wanting to add a veteran forward, I would be careful not to hamstring the team financially going forward to get this deal done. Because of the risk (see below), I would not do 2 years unless the 2nd year was so cheap that you could slot him as 4th-line physicality and veteran leadership in the range of $1.5M. No way would he take that deal. Next summer, the Canes have Justin Faulk coming off a $900k contract and Jiri Tlusty coming off a $1.6M deal. Both will need to be re-signed for much more obviously. The only expiring contract that could provide flexibility is Pitkanen’s at $4.5M, but it will probably cost about that to either re-sign or replace him. So no way does Rutherford want to add a bunch more in a 2nd year of Morrow’s contract. There are also considerations for 2013-14 financially. The Canes have about $4.9M left under the salary cap for this season. With the volume of moving parts on the blue line and even with Morrow the volume of unproven players in the bottom 6, it would be wise to maintain some flexibility to add a player via trade if something does not work out. Morrow earned $4M last season on a 4-year deal signed when he was in a much bigger role. I think a fair price for him is probably $2-3M at this stage of his career. Something like $2.5M pays him a small premium for his character above his role/slot, and it leaves the Canes $2.4M of flexibility. If he is still available because he is holding out for 2 years or because he wants a max premium for his intangibles to justify not just doing the easy thing and returning to Dallas on a lesser deal then I pass.
=> So I would not do 2 years, and even for 1 year I would not pay a big premium and give up all of the team’s financial trade flexibility in the process.
My “I’ll take him for the right price” opinion is based on the financial issues highlighted above but also his performance risk. I have zero questions about his effort, desire, hunger and all of the intangible stuff. He just is not the type to ride out the end of his career and collect a few more paychecks. But I am strongly in the group who has concerns about whether he is mobile enough to be more than a bit player in Muller’s system. Morrow would not need to lead the rush with the puck, but all forwards in Muller’s system must be mobile enough to play to the end line on the forecheck and back to the other blue line on the back check to player regular minutes.
=>So Morrow’s mobility at this stage of his career as relates to Muller’s system IS a concern for me.
In terms of how the Canes could use him, I voted for putting him at right wing next to Skinner/Lindholm. To be clear, this option might not really be possible. Morrow has been pretty much exclusively a left wing for about a dozen years now. In the Canes system, the job of the forward on the forecheck does not change drastically from one side to the other, but there is a comfort/natural tendencies adjustment to overcome. I keep comparing this line to Montreal’s Galchenyuk/Gallagher/Prust line that excelled for the first ½ to 2/3 of 2012-13. Montreal used them in a bit of a focused/limited role which did a few things. First, it got them on the ice against favorable matchups where they could use their skill/skating/young legs to prey on mobility and defensive mismatches and provide significant secondary scoring. It kept their minutes down and enabled them to stay fresh deep into the season. And as a veteran ruffian, Prust provided someone who was always on the ice with the kids to prevent opponents from taking liberties. So if you transfer that to a similar line for the Canes. Morrow and Lindholm get slightly limited minutes to stay fresh (15ish is probably right for both of them). While some will cry that Skinner cannot be used on the 3rd line, I call BS. He gets a natural 15 minutes/game in cherry picked offensively favorable matchups against lesser defenders. And his ice time gets boosted with a healthy helping of power play ice time and maybe a double shift here and there if he is going and the team needs offense. But again, via a conversation with Muller and maybe some trial and error in training camp, it might prove out that Morrow just cannot comfortably make the adjustment to his off wing. This is not catastrophic. He could fit similarly on the left side of that line with Lindholm/Dalpe or Palushaj in a similar role. As long as his minutes are controlled, he could make the JStaal/Ruutu combination a beast playing a puck possession, grinding/cycling game in the offensive zone that wears opponents’ scoring lines down getting beat up in the corners far from anywhere where they can even take a shot.
=> So while I most like the idea of copying Montreal’s “2 kids and a grizzled warrior” approach in 2012-13, I think there are multiple decent options for “where” Morrow could fit as long as he can log the minutes and the pace.
The shorter version for me is:
1) If Morrow is holding out for max (in terms of $ or years), I would not give up the financial flexibility to take the risk.
2) But if he will take a “fair” 1-year contract, I acknowledge the risk of signing him but can’t help but think the risk of icing what is really an AHL team for the bottom 6 is greater.
Next I time write it should finally be September which at least gets us in the month of having NHL players on PNC Arena ice and even preseason games. FINALLY!
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