Allow me to be hypocritical for a moment, but I believe there are five things in life that a man should be loyal to: his wife, his family, his friends, his alma mater, and his favorite hockey team. I’ve had varying degrees of loyalty to each of the preceding four during my life, but my loyalty to the Edmonton Oilers has never wavered. Even during the “fall for Hall,” “fail for Nail” or “decline precipitously in the standings in order to select Ryan Nugent-Hopkins with the first ovell pick” campaigns, I’ve always had the team’s best interests in mind. I didn’t become a Kings fan after the Gretzky trade. Plus, like many of my fellow Oiler fans, I even defended Steve Tambellini for a while, until we all realized that he was grossly incompetent.
However, something happened about three weeks ago that shook my Oilers fanhood and made me question the strength of my lifelong allegiance to the copper and blue. A friend of mine was looking at the odds of NHL teams winning the Stanley Cup in 2014, trying to determine which club offered the best value bet. “Do you think the Oilers could win the Cup this season?” she asked. I was stunned by the question, since the thought hadn’t even remotely crossed my mind, and immediately responded that there was no chance. In fact, I told her that there was a better chance of Cam Barker skating on an NHL second pairing this season. Boom. Let that sink in for a moment.
The look that came over her face was similar to the one I had after Ty Conklin botched Game 1. It was the look children have when they learn that Santa Claus is the biggest lie perpetuated on the public since low-fat ice cream. It was
this guy’s look. It immediately became apparent to me that she had put a huge amount of money on the Oilers lifting Lord Stanley’s Cup. In fact, she wasn’t asking for my opinion at all, but seeking validation from the only Oiler fan she knows that she wouldn’t have been better off investing in a Blockbuster Video franchise.
I quickly went into damage control mode, trying to pick up the pieces of her shattered gambling dream. I reasoned that, sure, the Oilers haven’t made the playoffs in seven years, but they had enough young talent to make some noise if they could get into the playoffs. (I don’t believe that.) I pointed out that all you need is a hot goaltender to steal a series or two, and Devan Dubnky could be that guy. (I don’t believe that.) Finally, I pulled out the final arrow in the quiver of a desperate man, stating that stranger things had happened. (And they have... rarely.)
Trying to seeking out the silver lining in her dark cloud of a bet, I was caught in the crossfire between my love for the team and my tendency to be a staunch realist. However, in the weeks since that discussion, I’ve been turning the question over and over in my mind, like a fat kid turning over a maple bar in his pudgy hands before devouring it whole. Could the Oilers Win the Stanley Cup in 2014? Or, more realistically, if you’re looking to take a longshot to win the Stanley Cup do the Oilers make any sense? Let’s take a look at the odds to see what we’re up against here, courtesy of Bovada.
BLACKHAWKS 6-1
PENGUINS 13-2
BRUINS 10-1
KINGS 12-1
BLUES 12-1
RED WINGS 16-1
CANUCKS 16-1
SHARKS 18-1
OILERS 20-1
WILD 20-1
RANGERS 20-1
DUCKS 22-1
MAPLE LEAFS 25-1
CAPITALS 25-1
CANADIENS 28-1
SENATORS 28-1
FLYERS 28-1
ISLANDERS 33-1
HURRICANES 40-1
AVALANCHE 40-1
BLUE JACKETS 40-1
STARS 40-1
DEVILS 40-1
PREDATORS 50-1
LIGHTNING 50-1
JETS 50-1
COYOTES 66-1
SABRES 100-1
FLAMES 100-1
PANTHERS 150-1
A few things stick out to me looking over this list. First, you have a few teams that advanced deep into the playoffs in the last three season (Devils, Lightning, Coyotes) offering up some serious value as longshot bets. In fact, if I were to lay some money down it might be on the Devils, who would return $4,000 on a $100 bet. Second, oddsmakers are preying on passionate Canadian fans who perpetually see their favorite teams through rose-colored glasses. The Coyotes finished six points ahead of the Oilers in the standings last season, and does anyone really think Edmonton is more than three times as likely to win the Cup than Phoenix? No chance. And I love the Oilers, but if you think they’re more likely to win the Cup than the Ducks then perhaps you need to spend some time in a room with padded walls.
Several teams have won the Stanley Cup after failing to qualify for the playoffs during the previous season. In fact, the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes, 1994 New York Rangers and 1991 Pittsburgh Penguins are some of the most notable teams on that list. However, I was unable to find any team that had won the Cup after missing the playoffs during the previous seven seasons. I’m not saying that it can’t happen – I mean, man has walked on the moon, and Christian Slater continues to get acting work – I’m just saying that you’d better give me more attractive odds than 20-1.
So I suppose I’m not as loyal to the Oilers as I once was, and I’m no longer the cock-eyed optimist who figures the team can overcome the odds and silence the naysayers to reach the top of the NHL mountain. Then again, if you’ve been a fan of the Oilers for as long as I have I’m sure you understand.
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