I've heard it said recently that Sabres center Cody Hodgson doesn't have any leverage in his quest to earn a long-term contract with the Buffalo Sabres. Hodgson is in a unique negotiating position right now. Don't let his age fool you. Hodgson comes as advertised. When the Vancouver Canucks drafted him 10th overall in the 2008 NHL entry draft, they did so with an eye towards offensive production, power play prowess, and his defensive abilities. After three seasons of NHL service, Cody Hodgson's body of work suggests that he is the pro player that the scouts and talent evaluators predicted he would be in the NHL. First and foremost, he's an offensive threat, both as a scorer and a play maker. Secondly, he's a defensive player.
Here's my rationale for why Hodgson does have leverage in his negotiation with the Sabres.
1. Hodgson Is Buffalo's #1 Center:
Hodgson has played in 139 regular season games in his three year NHL career. He has played 68 of those games for the Buffalo Sabres. In the majority of those games, he was Buffalo's #1 center. In those 68 games, he has scored 18 goals and has added 24 assists for 42 points 68 games. Impressive production. When you factor all 139 games played, Hodgson has scored 35 goals and has added 42 assists for 77points.
He would have contributed more to the Buffalo offense had it not been for the NHL lockout. While playing the #1 center role in Rochester during the work stoppage, Hodgson create 19 points (5 goals, 14 assists) in the 19 games that he played for the Amerks.
CoHo is playing the exact role that the Sabres had envisioned he would play when they traded highly sought after power forward prospect Zack Kassian and Marc Andre Gragnani to Vancouver for Hodgson and Alex Sulzer.
Are their blemishes on Hodgson's defensive game? Of course there are. He's 23 years old and he's been asked to defend against the #1 centers in the Eastern conference in his time in Buffalo. Hodgson has struggled at times against Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Bergeron, Giroux, Stamkos, Tavares, and Spezza. Name me a 23 year old kid who wouldn't. Hell, the aforementioned star centers all had their struggles as they were thrown from the frying pan to the fire when they were only 23 years of age. Many of today's best young centers in the game were guilty of using their D zone as a resting place to catch their breath between rushes with the puck. Hodgson is teachable. He's not a 30 year old vet. He's a kid who is willing, ready, and able to learn the nuances of the D game. Ron Rolston knows what Hodgson's defensive liabilities are, that's one of the reasons why he hired former Avs head coach Joe Sacco, who groomed Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Reilly, and Paul Stastny from young kids to respected 200 foot NHL players. Rolston and Sacco will help Hodgson to clean up and strengthen the weak areas of his defensive game, while not detracting from his offensive production. Sorry folks, Kevyn Adams tried to help Hodgson but something was amiss there. I truly believe that Hodgson will thrive under Sacco's guidance.
Hodgson is the #1 center in Buffalo until such time that Ennis, Grigorenko or Girgensons takes the bull by the horns and steals the job away from him.
2. Vanek Factor:
If the Sabres are serious about signing Vanek to a long term deal, they should strongly consider the factor that Vanek loves playing with Hodgson. Vanek has told me on a number of occasions that he loves the fact that his center, Hodgson, can pass from the left and right sides. Hodgson's an ambidextrous centerman. Thats a rarity in today's game. Vanek knows with certainty that if his stick is on the ice, on a scoring position, that Hodgson will hit him on the tape with a dart.
Chemsitry. Hodgson and Vanek have it. Its undeniable. If Vanek is indeed a central focal point in the future of the Sabres, then it would be wise of Regier to take care of the #26's favorite center now. Right now, Vanek doesn't have a center or a right winger in his line and we are only 2 weeks away from the opening of training camp. Don't shake your money maker, Darcy.
3. Point A Game Potential:
68 games, 42 points. Thats how Hodgson's Buffalo stat line reads. Thise are Derek Roy style numbers. Remember Derek Roy? I do. A lot of you snarled and scoffed at Darcy Regier when he did his diligence and then signed Roy to the six year, $24 million contract extension. Roy more than adequately lived up to the terms of that contract. He out-performed it. Did you know, that in Roy's first two full seasons in Buffalo in 2005-06 and 2006-07, Roy played 145 games (70 and 75, respectively). He accumulated 109 points in those first two seasons. Hodgson has yet to play two full seasons in Buffalo. He played 20 games after the trade in 2011. He played all 48 games in the lockout shortened season. It can be argued that if the 2013 season was a full 82 game slate of games that Hodgson's offensive number would have been higher than the 15 goals and 19 assists that he produced. He likely would have finished a full 82 game season with 50-55 points, if not more.
I submit to you that Hodgson can do the same thing, with the same 6 year year, $24 million contract that New Jersey Devils former RFA center Adam Henrique signed earlier this week.
In pro sports, GMs and owners are paying for tomorrow's production while using yesterday's numbers. I'm a big believer in betting on a player's future. In his 139 game "audition", Hodgson has proven that he can be a point a game player. Why not give him what he wants now? Give him term and dollars. Its a win-win. He wins because all he has to worry about until he's 29 years old is perfecting his defensive game and creating offense. The team will get to repa the benefits of having their #1 center under contract at a cap-friendly rate for the next six years. see Derek Roy. What if CoHo declines Buffalo's "bridge contract offer", asks for and receives a one year "prove it to me" deal at say, $3 million., and then goes out and has himself an 80-85 point season. What then? He'd be well within his rights to ask for, and receive an annual contract north of $4.5 million per season. If the Sabres refuse to pay it, one of the other 29 NHL teams will. Fact. Another perk to signing CoHo to a Henrique-style deal is that $4 million is a tradeable AAV contract number. Hodgson would have trade value if the Sabres and he wanted to part ways down the road. The NHL salary cap is projected to grow to $80 million from $64.3 million in the next 3-4 seasons.
4. Known Quantity Vs. Rookies:
In a season where 7-8 new players may make the Sabres roster, there will be a lot of hand wringing and contemplation as to whether youngsters are ready to play in the NHL right now for the Buffalo Sabres. Regier and Rolston will no doubt have regular conversations about young players and their abilities to adapt and overcome in the NHL. Playing 6 games in 8 nights in the NHL when you are beat up and do tired is a lot different than riding buses in the AHL or in juniors. The strong survive the NHL grind. The not so strong get sent back to the AHL. Hodgson has invested his 10,000 hours in the gym and on the ice. He's by no means a grizzled veteran, however, he has learned to prepare his mind and body for the rigors of the NHL. He hit the wall at the end of the 2011 season and he's learned to take care of his mind and body by getting the necessary treatment, rest and recover. Many of the kids that are vying to earn a job in Buffalo have yet to endure the pain and suffering that are by products of the pro hockey lifestyle. By "suffering" I mean being physically and mentally exhausted from the battles, the travel, and the compressed nature of the schedule.
Hodgson has a leg up on his peers in Buffalo right now. He can walk it and talk it.
You see, Hodgson does have leverage afterall.
Regier should pay Hodgson "Henrique money" now. Otherwise, it will end up costing the Sabres more money in the future.
If the team is considering trading Hodgson for a more experience #1 center, say like Paul Stastny, then what are they waiting for? Training camp opens on September 12, and the last thing that this young team needs is training camp confusion and acrimony. Its bad enough that the Miller and Vanek situation will be a recurring theme in training camp. The team doesn't need a Hodgson contract holdout in the air as well. Rolston and Regier desperately need all of the rookies and veterans to block out all of the outside noise and to compete with the eye of the tiger. There will not be a re-set button to hit if this team fails to win games in October and November.
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