Expectations for Gonchar and Nichushkin
Apart from the blockbuster trade with Boston that sent Loui Eriksson to the Bruins and brought Tyler Seguin and Rich Peverley to the Dallas Stars, the biggest offseason acquisitions made by new general manager Jim Nill involved a pair of Russian players.
On June 7, the Stars acquired the negotiating rights to impending unrestricted agent defenseman Sergei Gonchar from the Ottawa Senators. The following day, the team announced that they had signed the 39-year-old Gonchar to a two-year deal.
The contract carries a $5 million cap hit. That may sound very high for a player of his age, but is simply a sign of the times leaguewide. Proven defensemen come at a premium, even ones in their mid-to-late 30s. The biggest risk of the signing is that, as a multi-year deal, it is subject to the NHL's over-35 contract rules. Even if Gonchar is forced to retire due to injury, the Stars will be on the hook for his cap hit until the 2015-16 season.
A veteran of 1,177 regular season and 135 NHL playoff games, Gonchar is coming off a resurgent season for Ottawa. In the absence of an injured Erik Karlsson, Gonchar produced 27 points in 45 games and play an average 23:59 per game (18:02 even strength, 3:43 power play, 2:14 penalty kill).
Last season, the Stars missed Sheldon Souray after his free agent departure to Anaheim. Gonchar is a different sort of defenseman than Souray in some ways but he is similar in that he's a threat to create offense from the point and in being an experienced veteran to supplement the leadership of fellow aging veteran Stephane Robidas (who is signed for one more season). Even if Robidas is gone after next season, the Stars will still have Gonchar as a veteran anchor.
The 6-foot-2, 210 pound Gonchar has never been known as a physical player. However, he will at least bring some size and physical strength along with his proven offensive talents to what was largely an undersized Dallas blueline this past season. Theoretically at least, acquisition of Gonchar gives the Stars some flexibility on the top end of the blueline.
Adding Gonchar to the lineup takes some offensive pressure off Alex Goligoski -- who has pressed at times in each of the last two seasons -- to run the show on the power play. Secondly, it saves a bit of wear-and-tear on Robidas to be the team's de facto number one all-around defenseman in tough situations. Lastly, it allow the Stars to have a more natural offensive defenseman than Trevor Daley (who is a good puck mover on breakouts but only sporadic as an offensive threat) handling the role of primary responsibility for triggering the rush.
Tradewise, all the acquisition of Gonchar cost the Stars, tradewise, was a sixth-round Draft pick. While the second year on the contract is a risk for the Stars, it was some nice handiwork by Nill to be able to add an accomplished defenseman ahead of the UFA market place and without having to pay a hefty trade cost.
At the 2013 NHL Draft in Newark, NJ, Nill used the 10th overall selection of the first-round to select Russian forward Valeri Nichushkin. Considered to be a player with first-line caliber physical upside and two-way potential, there are nevertheless also some question marks about consistency and attitude.
While the player has committed to play in North America next season, he rubbed some teams the wrong way with his declaration that he'd play only in the NHL or KHL (no AHL or CHL, in other words). There were others who were not happy about the fact that he did not train for the pre-Draft NHL Combine. As a result, after many predicted he could go as high as fifth in the first round, he fell to the Stars at number 10.
There is some risk involved in the selection, but Nichushkin has home run potential. For the immediate future, it remains to be seen if he's truly NHL-ready. Even if he is, how much ice time will he get? Stars coach Lindy Ruff isn't going to hand anything to the player just because he was a highly touted first-round pick. Nichushkin is going to have to earn his keep.
Nichushkin already has NHL-caliber size and skating ability, but there are still rough spots in his game. As with any young player, he will have to adapt to the demands of the NHL pacing, physical style and the skill of his opponents. Like all players coming over from Europe, he will need to navigate the transition to the smaller rink. There is also the cultural adjustment and language barrier, which is often a bigger factor with Russian players than it is for those from Sweden or Finland. Hopefully, having someone like Gonchar in the locker room will help him deal more smoothly with the latter issues.
Even assuming he breaks camp with the Stars and does not return to play this season in the KHL, it is probably wise to keep expectations for Nichushkin modest in his first NHL campaign. I would expect some flashes of brilliance -- particularly early in the season before other teams have a scouting "book" on him -- but also some lengthy dry spells in his point production. I would also think that it will take time before the player earns significant power play time, which will also hold down his scoring chances and corresponding stat totals.
If he makes the Stars lineup and sticks around all season, the primary goal for the player should be to improve at a slow and steady pace over the course of the year. If Nichushkin is a better young NHL player at the end of the year than at the beginning, his rookie year will have a success no matter what his stat line looks like. Bigger scoring numbers will come in time if he fulfills his considerable potential.
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