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What's Next for the Caps? - by Ben Case

August 24, 2013, 6:39 PM ET [61 Comments]
Capitals Guest Writer
Washington Capitals Blogger • RSSArchive
After letting Mike Ribiero walk in free agency earlier this off-season, the Capitals finally filled that hole in the middle on their second line by signing the highly sought after Mikhail Grabovsky. Following a very successful rebuilding phase, that started with the drafting of Alexander Ovechkin, the talented and youthful teams of the past few years have still remained unable to capture the results that the organization has been searching for—failing to make it past the second round of the playoffs, despite winning the former Southeast Division four of the last five years. The signing of Grabovski should bring the team one much needed step closer towards the team’s ultimate goal of making it to and winning the Stanley Cup Finals. He brings much needed scoring depth that the Caps have lacked since losing Alexander Semin. Barring any trades or acquisitions, here is what the Caps’ lineup should resemble come October when they take the ice in the newly formed, highly competitive 8-team Metropolitan Division:
Forwards: Defense: Goaltending:
Ovie/Backstrom/Erat Green/Alzner Holtby/Neuvirth
Laich/Grabo/Ward Carlson/Erskine
Brouwer/Perrault/Fehr Hillen/????
Chimera/Beagle/Segal or Volpatti

Quick Overview of the Roster:
Offense: When looking at these lines, it is apparent that the Caps have a relatively well-rounded, though not extremely deep offensive unit through all four lines. As of now, the Caps have yet to sign Marcus Johansson (MoJo) who will fill a top-six forward position and would give the first two lines even more depth and versatility. These lines also don’t take into account Tom Wilson’s potential to make the Capitals’ roster this season, after seeing NHL playoff action this past season in the Rangers series. Ultimately, if MoJo works out a deal, and Wilson plays his way into a spot during camp, I feel that the offense is a actually little over-crowded, allowing that the Caps affordability to move a player or two to strengthen weaknesses in other areas.
Defense: On the blue-line, Green (27), Alzner (24), Carlson (23) and Hillen (27) put the Caps core defensive unit as one of the youngest in the league—Erskine (at 33) is the eldest of the group, adding to their depth and experience. The organization has a good crop of young talent competing to make that third pairing. D-Men who spent last season with the AHL affiliate, Hershey Bears, that have a fighting chance are Steven Olesky, Dmitry Orlov, Tomas Kundratek, Nate Schmidt and Cameron Schilling. Caps fans, can and should expect a bright, young core well into the future.

Goaltending: Though Holtby’s statistics are impressive to date, when looking at the roster, it’s between the pipes where the Caps suffer the most from inexperience. Holtby’s inconsistent play last season has opened the door to a competition for this year’s starting goaltender position. Holtby or Neuvirth are solid young goalies, however, neither is a truly a yet NHL franchise netminder and both still need to continue seeing the ice in order to properly develop into one. While this is indeed a very solid youth tandem, for a team trying to make a deep run into the Stanley Cup playoffs while coming out of the Metropolitan Division, wouldn’t it make more sense to strengthen the crease a bit by making a move for a proven franchise goaltender now, rather than spending the next few seasons waiting on Holtby to reach his full-potential?

For comparison, let’s look at the other goaltending tandems in the Metro Division this coming season (starting goalies are listed first):
Carolina: Cam Ward, Anton Khudobin
Columbus: Sergei Brobrovski , Curtis McElhinney/Michael Leighton
New Jersey: Martin Brodeur, Cory Schneider (will split time)
Philadelphia: Ray Emery, Steve Mason (will split time)
New York Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist, Martin Biron
Pittsburgh: Marc-Andre Fleury, Tomas Vokoun
New York Islanders: Evgeni Nabokov, Kevin Poulin

Every single one of these starting goaltenders have been an NHL All-Star sometime during their career other than Emery, Mason, and Schneider. However, Cory Schneider will most likely be an NHL All-Star very soon as he is one of the most anticipated goalies of the future. Mason won the Calder in 2009, was selected for the 2009 NHL YoungStars Game, and was also nominated for the Vezina. Three have won a Stanley Cup as a starter (Ward, Brodeur, Fleury); Bobrovsky and Lundqvist are the last two Vezina winners.

So where would you rank Holtby and Neuvirth in comparison to the strength of these tandems in the Metro Division?

While admittedly I do like Holtby a lot and his statistics are great, the slap shot from Game-7 of last season’s Rangers series off the stick of Mike Rupp—the one that scored short-side over his glove—should absolutely have been a routine save, and it ended up costing the Caps the series. That shot far surpassed what might be considered a ‘bad bounce’ resulting in a goal. Bluntly, it was a weak goal that Holtby should make the save on 99 times out of 100, without question. So really, the question that should be asked is would this have happened with a franchise goaltender between the pipes?

This is why, I believe the Caps biggest ‘weakness’ (if you can actually call it that) right now is in net, and in my attempt to play matchmaker, I propose the following trade:
WASHINGTON trades: Chimera, Holtby, & Green
to
Buffalo for: Ryan Miller and a 2014 2nd or 3rd round draft-pick. (Maybe a young offensive prospect)

It is no secret that Ryan Miller (33) is desperately seeking a way out of Buffalo heading into his contract year; he wants to compete for a Stanley Cup now, instead of wasting the final years of his prime rotting in Buffalo through their youth movement process. (Just ask the Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers how long that takes). It’s hard to imagine a relationship between him and the Capitals not being mutually beneficial for both parties in the long term. Miller would provide the Caps with the goaltending that they have been searching for, while the Caps provide Miller with a team in front of him that can play deep into June if they are matched together. The Capitals youthful defensive unit has been known particularly for their offensive skill sets; however, it’s been a necessity that they play a more conservative defensive system, and it’s purely due to the inconsistencies between the pipes. Miller would give the defensive unit more confidence, allowing for them to take more chances to create scoring opportunities, without constantly worrying about making mistakes. This would also allow for the Caps to bring up one of their younger prospects who is NHL ready but wouldn’t get the opportunity this season given their current roster. Also, as the like likely starting goaltender for USA with the Olympics taking place in February, Miller is expected to be playing at his optimal performance. While it still isn’t a guarantee that Miller will be starting for the United States, the competition from Quick will only be pushing him to perform at an even higher caliber than he did back in 2010.

Now given the organizational defensive depth that the Caps have in the minors, it might be just that time for the team to part ways with a big name in that position. Solidifying the goaltending in a deal for Miller gives this team the benefit of being able to move a noteworthy defenseman such as Mike Green. Green who carries approximately a $6 million cap hit comes to mind because of his recent inconsistency and injury history. Despite being only 27 years old and having previously been a player who was thought to be a consistent name in race for the Norris Trophy candidate, Green has quickly drifted into mere mediocrity in recent seasons. Having struggled to show any real signs of regaining true form to resemble the defensemen he once was, the Caps would be wise to move him now before everyone else figures this out too. However, Green would need to waive his no-trade clause to allow this deal to transpire.
While Chimera (34) may be a great two-way forward who brings a solid physical presence, he is still a player who is replaceable in today’s NHL. Looking at the roster even without Wilson and Johanson, Chimera still barely falls into a bottom-six role. He is a good, 3rd line veteran forward who has spent time as a top-six and would bring some solid experience and leadership to the youngest team in the NHL. In addition, past Buffalo’s first line, their depth really falls off onto inexperienced talents and unproven prospects. While Buffalo is in a rebuilding phase, the addition of Green and Chimera would give them true current NHL caliber players to potentially keep them out of the Easter Conference doldrums.

The last piece of this trade puzzle, Holtby (23), is also expendable for the Caps because of the grooming of Philipp Grubauer and would make a good addition to the Sabres. He would provide competition between the pipes for Jhonas Enroth who signed just a contract extension this summer, and give them two options in the process of their youth movement moving forward. The Sabres have good prospects in the AHL, however, none of them are NHL proven and with the departure of Miller in the trade, having two reliable goaltenders is essential. Enroth has played well in his limited time, however, he is still unproven and by not having competition on a rebuilding team, it might hurt his future development. Holtby comes at a low price and would allow the Sabres to continue developing their goaltending talent through the AHL and ECHL.
Conclusion:
Ultimately, time is running out for the Caps to continue their status as ‘cup contenders,’ due to Ovechkin and company continuing to age. If the Caps organization is serious about making a REAL Cup Run, then it is time that they make a few major adjustments, and it starts with securing the true franchise goaltender who can put a stop to the revolving door that has been the Capitals goal crease since Olaf Kolzig’s departure.
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