I am on record as suggesting that if I were Canes GM, I would strongly consider trading Jeff Skinner to add a top-tier defenseman. I was also reasonably tough on him in my 2012-13 review. And I have pointed out my concern with the size, injury risk and length/salary risk associated with his contract. You can find a couple of those past blogs here:
2012-13 Jeff Skinner eval:
My 2012-13 Jeff Skinner evaluation (June 10)
Suggested defensemen targets including a couple Jeff Skinner trade options:
My defensemen targets including a couple proposed Jeff Skinner trades (June 20)
I tend to write most of my blogs from the angle of playing pretend GM or coach and analytically thinking through what is best for the team. From this arm chair GM angle, my assessments above are still where I come down on Jeff Skinner. When you add it up, you might come to the conclusion that I am completely negative on Jeff Skinner.
But coming at it more from a fan and also adding some broader perspective to it, that is not the case at all. Sometime probably about 4 months after graduating from high school and taking a big step up even from being a highly touted prospect, Jeff Skinner was thrust into the spotlight. By about November, he had vaulted to some combination of hockey star and broader Justin Bieber-like pop star. Jeff Skinner had played a prominent role in the hometown All-Star game, adjusted pretty seamlessly to being a hockey rock star and assumed a significant role in both team and broader NHL marketing. And the significant transition off the ice did nothing to slow his accomplishments on the ice. He managed a 31-goal/63-point rookie season, an all-star game appearance and finished by winning the Calder Trophy.
That is a HUGE step forward probably 1 if not 2 years before most scouts would have projected him to even set foot on NHL ice. And it set an incredibly difficult benchmark to beat or even match. Injury setbacks, decreased scoring production and the work-in-progress defensive development have him finishing the 2012-13 season flat or possibly even down a bit from where it all started in his magical rookie season.
But allow me to try a different angle for discussing where Jeff Skinner is as a player entering the 2013-14 season. Allow me to wipe out what happened prior and just start from what Skinner did in 2012-13. I think the short version goes like this:
--He showed that he can score in the NHL and not just in a 1-dimensional way. He posted points in a sniper/shooter role on the power play. He created his own scoring chances 1-on-1 off the rush. And he did it all minus a pure playmaker line mate feeding him scoring chances. His start to the 2013 season was breathtaking. He had 7 goals and 7 assists through 13 games and was an even +/- player through 13 games before a concussion caused him to miss 2 weeks and derailed his phenomenal start. Had he been a rookie, he would have been a frontrunner for the Calder and in the top batch of NHL scorers with his point per game and roughly 40-goal pace through 13 games.
--Things were not so easy once he returned from the injury. His scoring slowed, and it became clear that he still had some work to do to become a good enough player on the defensive side of the ledger.
But if you woke up from a hockey coma and looked only at what Jeff Skinner accomplished as a 21-year old in 2013-14 minus previous season context, you would have to rate it favorably. His nearly 50ish point pace was respectable with clear upside demonstrated by his torrid start. As a player whose natural gifts were offense and creativity, his need to improve defensively would be something to monitor but not at all dampen the positives.
When I suggest trading Jeff Skinner or harp about his contract/injury risk, I usually get at least a few comments from people disagreeing. Some of this is the “fan side” of people who just really like Jeff Skinner as a player, person and part of the Carolina Hurricanes. (There is absolutely nothing wrong with this “fan” angle; it is why we love the game.) But despite having an opposing view personally, I realize that there is also a strong case from the “arm chair GM”/analytical side too. One can make a very reasonable argument that despite needing more help on the blue line trading a player with Jeff Skinner’s current accomplishments and long-term upside at the age of 21 is not best for the team.
Two completely different but both defendable options for how to move forward are what make GM Jim Rutherford’s job difficult and is why he gets paid very well to do his job.
I realize that portions of this have been bandied about previously, but in the dog days of hockey summer leading up to training camp, taking the opposite side of 1 of my own stances provides as good of a personal Canes hockey fix as anything else.
Where do you come down on the Jeff Skinner debate?
1) Would the team be completely nuts to trade such a talent at this early stage in his development?
2) Or despite the upside is the risk just too much with the big contract, injury risk and areas for improvement?
Regardless of where I stand with what I think the team should do trade-wise, with very, very few exceptions, I root for the best for every player in a Canes uniform wholeheartedly. (Jeff Skinner is NOT 1 of the very limited exceptions.) If there is a path to watching playoff hockey in the spring and summer of 2014 that includes me being wrong on most or even all of my arm chair coaching and team building versus missing the playoffs again, sign me up!
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