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With the New Jersey Devils getting most of their off-season shopping out of the way early, Lou Lamoriello and the Devils are all but done with roster moves.
There is still one big item on the checklist, though, and that's re-signing 23-year-old restricted free agent, Adam Henrique.
The question is, how much is he worth?
That's a tough question to answer because every player and their situation is different. That said, using some queries I've come up with a list of comparable players in terms of production, age, etc.
To truly gauge how much Henrique is worth and approximately how much he'll earn in his next contract, the best thing to do is look at said comparables.
So with that said, here is a chart I made of comparable players to Henrique in terms of age, production and what they're making on their current contracts.
Note: This query was sorted by players with between 110-150 games and 45-80 points in their first 2-3 NHL seasons. With James van Riemsdyk, that's his production after his first couple seasons in Philadelphia and doesn't include his production in Toronto. I believe he was 23 at the time of signing his contract, as well. Also, the * beside Gabriel Landeskog's name means that he's still on his entry level deal.
After looking at the chart, the player that best resembles Henrique is Cody Hodgson. Their points per game totals are similar and they're both 23 years of age. Obviously Hodgson doesn't yet have a contract so it's impossible to look at Hodgson's contract and draw direct comparisons to Henrique.
In terms of production, Landeskog and Henrique are almost identical. Given Landeskog's on his entry level deal and Henrique's looking to sign his second contract, it's tough to compare those two as well.
That leaves JvR (prior to this season), Craig Smith and Colin Wilson as the best comparables.
As you see with Wilson and Smith, both of them signed short-term contracts worth $2 million per season. With that in mind, Henrique's production rate was higher than both players so that leads me to believe he'll earn more money on his contract than those two.
With JvR, he scored five more goals and had a few less points than Henrique with one more game played. It's worth noting that he also had an impressive playoff run or two in there, like Henrique. JvR signed a long-term contract worth $4.25 million per season. Given the similarities in production, I think it's safe to assume if Henrique and the Devils reach a long-term agreement, Henrique will earn around $4 million per season, give or take a few hundred thousand.
This chart leaves no exact formula to determine Henrique's contract, but based off production and his comparables, I think I have a pretty good idea of what he'll earn on his next contract.
If Henrique and the Devils agree to a short-term (2-3 years) extension, I expect he'll earn close to $3 million per season while if he signs a long-term deal I expect he'll earn about $4 million per season.
I believe the best is yet to come with Henrique so I'd be okay paying him that much over a long period of time. That said, I'd be okay with the terms of the shorter-term contract as well.
Either way, if Henrique signs in the ball park of what comparable players have signed for, I don't think there'll be many complaints. At least not from me.
It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.
**
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