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Sam Gagner and Matt Duchene Signed, Impact on Derek Stepan |
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The Rangers have already signed key restricted free agents Ryan McDonagh and Carl Hagelin, leaving Mats Zuccarello and Derek Stepan unsigned. Zuccarello, due to his contract etc., was able to file for arbitration, which he did, and the hearing is slated for July 31. The hope is and it sounds positive that arb will be avoided and a deal reached. Stepan is not eligible for arbitration, and as of now, all appearances are that not much progress has been made, leaving open the potential for an offer sheet, or if not, an extended hold out.
In the past few days, a pair of contracts have been signed, each of which could help drive and decide Stepan's price. Matt Duchene and Sam Gagner re-signed with their respective teams. Each of their situation is somewhat different from Stepan, but with them re-upping, it may help set the marketplace and price for Stepan.
Duchene had a great rookie campaign in 2009-10 as the Avalanche's second line center, finishing third on the team in scoring with 55 points, and second in goals with 24. Among NHL rookies, he finished first in points, and tied for first in goals. He upped that standard his sophomore campaign, leading the Avs in total points (67), and tying for first in goals (27) and assists (40). Duchene looked prime for an even bigger season in his third year, but missed a huge chunk of the season to knee and ankle injuries, playing just 58 games and scoring just 28 points (14G, 14A).
Coming off that poor campaign and his ELC, he signed a two-year, $7 million deal with Colorado in June 2012. Duchene rewarded the Avs and regained his status as a top-line center and player, scoring 43 points in 47 games. Based on this year and his first two seasons. Duchene and the Avalanche signed a five-year, $30 million extension, which will keep him in Colorado through the 2018-19 season.
Gagner was rumored to be seeking $5.5 million a year, but signed for three years and $14.4 million; an AAV of $4.8 million a year. Last year, Gagner scored 38 points (14 goals, 24 assists) in 48 games last season. He had 26 points in 27 games, before tailing off down the stretch with 12 his last 21 contests. His best offensive season came in his rookie season when he scored 49 points in 79 games, but his output last season would have netted him 65 points over a full season. Of course, that said, prior to last year, Gagner had scored 49, 41, 41, 42 and 47 points. In addition, with the offensive talent around him, Gagner, who is likely the Oilers' second line center, should be expected to produce. In the past, he has been good but not great and not viewed as a "franchise" or top-line center, so sliding in as the second line pivot makes sense for him, which is different from how Stepan is viewed.
So how does this impact Stepan? In terms of length of service, Stepan is similar to Duchene, as Duchene played four years to Stepan's three while Gagner played six years before signing this deal. Stepan wasn't viewed as a top-line player initially like Duchene and Gagner were, and while many still have questions as to if he is, he has shown that right now and for the immediate future, he is the top pivotman in NY. Duchene was coming off a bad year when he signed his two-year extension, but Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy recognized his value after he rebounded to lock him up long-term. In terms of importance to his team, Stepan is close to that of Duchene than Gagner, as if he doesn't produce, his team won't go anywhere, unlike Gagner, who can struggle and the Oilers have enough offense to make due without him.
Duchene outproduced Stepan his first two seasons, though Stepan clearly took a step forward in his sophomore campaign before exploding last year, to average nearly a point per contest. Moving forward, with Rick Nash and possibly Carl Hagelin on a line with him, the expectations and pressure will grow for Stepan, not only during the regular season, but in the playoffs, where he has yet to really take his game to the next level.
So now what? McDonagh signed for six years and $28.2 million. Do I think Stepan is worth Duchene money, no. Do I think he is worth at least Gagner money, yes? More than him, possibly. If you view Stepan to be your long-term solution there, the Rangers and Stepan can do one of two things. First, signed him to a short-term deal, as Colorado did with Duchene to keep his cap hit down and what the Rangers normally did as they usally opted for bridge-type contracts, and then re-sign him to an LT extension, cognizant of the cap rising. Second, and this is likely what will happen, I can see him getting a four-or five-year deal worth close to $5 mil per, if the salaries of Duchene and Gagner are any sort of comparison. The Rangers opted not to sign McDonagh to a bridge deal, and with that precedent somewhat set, I expect similar for Stepan. The team doesn't have the cap room to give Stepan more than $5 mil per, which in general may be already viewed as way too high of a salary. But as I spell out below, based on the picks required for an RFA, going above $5,046,585 would not be surprising.
$ 3,364,392 $ 5,046,585 2014 1st round pick, 2014 3rd round pick
$ 5,046,586 $ 6,728,781 2014 1st round pick, 2014 2nd round pick, 2014 3rd round pick
If you lack one and could sign a possible first-line center for the cost of a 1 and 3 next year, wouldn't you do it? The longer this goes on, the more the probability of an RFA offer sheet, regardless of Sather's bluster about wreaking havoc on that team in the future, grows. The contracts of Duchene and Gagner are not direct comparisons, but they should set the market place enough for Stepan and the Rangers to reach an accord, hopefully shortly.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
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