With the Tampa Bay Lightning’s off-season in full swing, it’s time to once again open up Mike’s Mailbag. This segment allows you to ask me questions about hockey, life, and anything in between. You can continue to submit questions to me via Twitter or private message, and I’ll be sure to include them in a future piece.
Q - Todd asks: Does Jonathan Drouin make the Lightning next season or go back to Juniors?
A – With everything he’s accomplished in Halifax, it’s hard to imagine that Jonathan Drouin would benefit from a return to junior hockey. The reality is that he’s too good and too dominant at the junior level. He deserves every opportunity to make the Lightning. Given the moves (or lack thereof) that Steve Yzerman has made this summer, it seems as though the team has penciled him into a spot on one of the top two lines. His strong showing at the team’s development camp indicates to me that he’s ready to make an impact at the NHL level.
Q – Oilers Rock 99 asks: What is the 1, 3, and 5 year plan for the goalie position?
A – Great question. Long-term, it’s pretty clear that the team is aiming for Andrei Vasilevski to grab the starter’s reins. He’s arguably the best goaltending prospect on the planet right now, and he has shown a desire to come over to North America and contribute. He’ll play next season in Russia before hopefully making the jump across the pond in time for the 2014-15 season. At that point, the team will have to determine whether he needs seasoning in the American Hockey League before joining the Lightning on a full-time basis. In the meantime, Ben Bishop and Anders Lindback will man the crease.
In direct reference to your question, I would probably say that Vasilevski is the ‘five year plan’ while Bishop and Lindback form the basis of the one and three year plans. Given what Yzerman gave up to acquire all three goaltenders, I can’t see that changing unless something drastic happens.
Q – Hamza asks: Who will be the Lightning captain next year?
A – I can’t see the Lightning not giving it to Martin St. Louis. Although Stamkos is arguably the face of the franchise, St. Louis just seems like the right fit. His leadership qualities and his on-ice presence are too much to ignore. He sums up everything it means to be a Bolt, and for that reason I expect to see the ‘C’ on his jersey come next season.
Q – Marc asks: Do you agree with 99.99% of people that New Jersey isn’t a playoff team? I think it’s funny because the team isn’t that bad (on paper).
A – There’s no doubt that the loss of Ilya Kovalchuk is going to hurt the New Jersey Devils. That being said, I don’t necessarily believe that they should be written off before next season even starts. With realignment in the cards, the Devils will be playing a lot of hockey against the Carolina Hurricanes, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Washington Capitals. Overall, the goaltending in “Division D” is a major question mark for me.
With Cory Schneider and Martin Brodeur manning the crease for the Devils, it’s incredibly difficult to already deem them a non-playoff team. Combine the Devils’ great goaltending with the continued development of some young players and a decent veteran core, and I think that they could make more noise than most people do.
Q – BoltFanSWE asks: How well is Koekkoek developoing? Will he make the team this season (if healthy)?
A – From all indications, the team is quite happy with the way Slater is developing. As you know, defensemen take longer to develop than forwards. With that in mind, I think it’s incredibly unlikely that Koekkoek makes the team next year. Long-term, he certainly projects to be a key cog in the Lightning’s machine. Personally, I think he needs a little more seasoning before he’s ready for NHL duty. After dealing with injuries over the last couple of seasons, he just needs to get back to playing hockey. He had a great development camp.
Q – Wintoon asks: With the additions of Drouin and Filppula, do the Bolts offset the loss of Vinny in the eyes of the fans?
A – This is a tough question to answer. From a purely on-ice perspective, I think it’s probably fair to say that the combination of Drouin and Filppula will bring more dynamism to the Lightning than Lecavalier alone. That being said, I don’t think that either one of those guys will immediately be able to replace everything that Vinny did off the ice. That’s not a knock against either gentleman, but rather a testament to just how important Lecavalier was to the team and community. Regardless of what jersey he’s wearing, he will always be a Bolt in the minds and hearts of many.
Q – George asks: Will you be quitting anytime soon?
A – No.
Q – Dan asks: I’m a lifelong Flyers fan, and have always like Vinny Lecavalier. Honestly – does he have anything left in the tank? Is he an asset or a problem? Thanks, and good luck this season!
A – Lecavalier still has a ton left in the tank. There was never a problem with his on-ice production. When healthy, he’s a 50+ point player who is more than capable of anchoring a productive second line. He’s a leader, a big body, and a clutch player. He’ll be a huge asset to the Flyers organization as long as the injury bug stays away. If the Lightning had him on the contract that the Flyers now do, there’s no way he would have been bought out. You guys acquired a great individual.
Q – Matt asks: Mike, who do you think the starting goalie will be come October? When do you think Vasilevski will be given a shot?
A – Most people around the league would probably say that Bishop will be the starter in October, but I’m not so quick to ignore Anders Lindback. I have always been incredibly high on what Anders can bring to this team. He got off to a rocky start after the lockout, but right before his injury he was playing lights out hockey. The potential in Lindback is clearly there, and with the new coaching staff’s system in place I expect big things from him. There will be a battle in the crease, and it will be most interesting to see who comes out on top.
As for Vasilevski, it will probably be a few more years before he makes his NHL debut. It certainly won’t be this season, so at the earliest you’re probably looking at some time in 2014-15. Even then, I don’t expect him to be ready for full-time duty until at least 2015-16.
Q – Riley asks: Do you think Barberio could QB the PP this coming season? Then we could put Stamkos, St. Louis, and Drouin/Filppula up front instead of Marty back at D.
A – It’s an intriguing possibility, but it’s too hard to judge without seeing the chemistry those guys have together. Barberio’s short stint in the NHL this past year wasn’t great, but it wasn’t a disaster. With another summer to train, he should be ready to make a big push for a full-time roster spot this year. Given the fact that Jon Cooper didn’t shy away from dressing seven D-men last year, I think he’ll probably start the season with the Bolts.
Q – Joe C asks: With all the contracts expiring at the end of 2013-14, it seems Stevie Y is going to spend on free agents next summer. Do you think this is by design or coincidence?
A – I’d say that it’s by design. That being said, I don’t think it’s so that he can go out and spend big on free agents. If you look at the Lightning’s prospect pool, you’ll see that a number of guys are VERY close to being ready for the NHL. With the plethora of contracts expiring over the next couple of years, roster spots will be opened up to prospects. The infusion of the ‘Tampacuse’ core will start this year and continue over the next few seasons.
Q – Tyler Hopl asks: Do you think Jonathan Drouin can win the Calder Trophy? Also, how many points do you think he will get in his rookie campaign?
A – Yes, I think he can win; whether he will win remains to be seen. If he makes the team, he’ll be given the opportunity to play alongside some of the league’s greatest offensive talents. As such, I don’t think that 40 points is an unreasonable goal for him. That might seem low to the casual observer, but remember that the transition from Major Junior to the NHL can be a rocky one.
Q – Michael Gilmer asks: Everyone seems to be placing a lot of hopes and pressure on our new draft pick, Jonathan Drouin. They expect him to jump into the lineup on the first line with Stamkos. I think we might be putting too much emphasis on a young kid who, while very talented, might not yet be ready for primetime, so to speak. What is your feeling on this? What do you think we can realistically expect from Drouin this season?
A – Fantastic question. I’ve long maintained that it’s so important that we don’t put too much pressure on young players. Developing players is a time consuming process, and there’s no need to make it more difficult than it already is. Given Yzerman’s penchant for following the Detroit model of developing prospects, don’t expect the team to automatically hand Drouin ice time simply because he’s a big name prospect. He’s going to have to earn a spot on the roster, and then earn the ice time he wants. People who are expecting a 60+ point season out of a raw rookie need to take a step back and understand that he’s not going to come in and set the world on fire.
If the team takes its time with Drouin, the long-term gains will be much larger than the short-term pains. It’s easy to pencil him in on that top line, but it might not be the wisest decision. While I expect Drouin to make the roster, simply because of his talent level, I don’t expect him to be a go-to guy right off the bat. As I said in one of the roundtable posts, the team has the luxury of time here. The Lightning can afford to be patient with Drouin, and that will certainly pay off.
Q – Roscoe asks: Which goaltender gets the most starts next season, and what’s the long-term future for Lindback, in your opinion?
A – This is nothing but a guess, but I’m going to go with Lindback. As I said in a previous answer, I really like the guy. People tend to forget that he’s only 25 years old. With his very impressive skillset, Lindback certainly has the potential to be a number one guy in this league. Look for him to take another big step forward next season.
Q – Garrett asks: If you or someone you know watched the development camp, what were your impressions? Who impressed/disappointed at each position?
A – My general impression is that the future is bright. There’s a bounty of riches in the Tampa Bay Lightning system. I suppose that the player who impressed me the most was Nikita Kucherov. From what I saw, he was as impressive as anyone else out on the ice. He’s simply a dominant, offensive force to be reckoned with. The good folks over at Bolt Prospects were very impressed by Adam Erne, Andrei Vasilevski, Slater Koekkoek, and Jonathan Drouin as well. Like I said, the future is bright.
Q – Formerly Cooke-d asks: Assuming Filppula plays centre, TBay has Stamkos, Filppula, Thompson, and Killorn at centre with little depth, unless Tyler Johnson and Namestnikov can make the jump to the NHL this year.
At wing, the team has St. Louis, Purcell, Connolly, and Crombeen on the right and Malone, Tyrell, Labrie, and Tom Pyatt on the left.
Does Drouin make the team as a Top 6 winger, considering the dearth of high-end talent, or do Tyrell/Malone and Purcell/St. Louis remain higher on the depth chart?
Looking at the D, things are even more confusing, as Carle, Hedman, Brewer, and Salo account for a combined $17,125,000 in cap space, while Aulie Gudas, Sustr, and Lee will compete for the remaining TOI.
If Sustr is NHL-ready, Aulie and Gudas will have to compete for the 6 spot. Lee will most likely play the full year in the AHL.
Will there be a move to decrease the log-jam at D to shore-up scoring?
Or will the organization look at someone like Peter Mueller in order to secure C/W depth as well as secondary scoring?
A – Well, there’s a lot to get through here. I suppose I’ll start at the top. When you list the Lightning’s wingers, you fail to include all of the high-end prospects who made an impact in both the AHL and NHL last season. Guys like Ondrej Palat and Richard Panik both look to be ready for NHL duty. Combine them with Brett Connolly and Alex Killorn (who actually played wing last year), and things are nowhere near as bad as you make them out to be. In fact, the Lightning have a bounty of talented options on the wing.
The Lightning’s strength on the wing is what made Cory Conacher expendable. I expect that Jonathan Drouin will probably make the team, but it’s certainly not because there’s a dearth of talent there. The Lightning’s prospect pool was just named the best in the league by Hockey Prospectus. In addition to the guys who are NHL ready, the team has Nikita Kucherov, J.T. Brown and Adam Erne, among others, who all project to be very solid wingers in the near future. As a side note, I don’t think you’ll find anyone who will say that Dana Tyrell is higher on the depth chart than Drouin.
Things on defense aren’t confusing at all. Like you said, the team’s got Carle, Hedman, Brewer, and Salo ready for top-six duty. That leaves three more spots available for younger players unless a trade or signing is made. Let’s simplify that even further by noting that Radko Gudas is an absolute lock for an NHL roster spot given his stellar play to end last season. So, now we’re left with two spots. Considering that most expect Andrej Sustr to continue his development in the AHL, Keith Aulie and Mark Barberio are likely left to fill the last two spots.
There is no log-jam on defense; I can assure you of that. If anything, the team might look at dealing a young forward for more defensive help. Your assessment is backwards.
Q – Don asks: Do you think Ryan Malone will still be a Tampa Bay Lightning at the start of the season?
A – I’ve been toying back and forth with this one for a very long time. I really can’t give you a confident answer, so I’ll just say no. Per many sources, the team has been trying to deal him for a long while. It makes sense, considering the fact that the Lightning has so many young wingers ready to come up and contribute.
Q – Riley asks: If Marty has 3-5 years left, do you think he will be named “C”? We all know he deserves it the most, but let’s be honest about the age here.
A – Yes.
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Thanks to everyone who sent in questions for this edition of Mike’s Mailbag! Chime in with your thoughts in the comments section.
As always, thanks for reading.
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