With the draft complete, a determination already made on Brad Richards' status for 2013-14 and most of what the Rangers will do in free agency having passed, I figured this was a good time to get back to the 20+ offseason questions I
posted here.
Today, I will cover one that has been a major topic of discussion, but one that is still undecided and I hope gets resolved sooner rather than later.
12. Mats Zuccarello energized the Rangers when he returned to the US, do you sign him for two or three years and at what $ amount?
The Rangers have already re-signed Ryan McDonagh and Carl Hagelin, two of their majors RFAs. Negotiations are reportedly ongoing with Derek Stepan, with most of us expecting a deal at four or five years for $4-4.5 mil per. though given what Josh Bailey signed for with the Islanders, you have to wonder if that spikes Stepan's asking price. The one player who could file for arbitration and did after negotiations failed come to a satisfactory conclusion was Mats Zuccarello.
By electing arbitration, the Rangers are now locked into Zucc unless he gets awarded more than $3.5 million due to the new CBA. Now, none of us including Zuccarello expect him to get that but the award he does get could force the Rangers hands elsewhere, requiring them to shed salary or a player they would rather keep. By filing, Zucc is in essence locked in to play in the US, as I believe the filing makes him inelibigle to play overseas. So now the challenge is to get him signed before arbitration, though one small benefit of that filing is the Rangers now have a second buyout period, even though the team is unlikely to use.
The fun part now comes in the Rangers and Zuccarello determining his value before the hearing, which announced today will be July 31, and if it goes to arb, the arbitrator figuring that out. Per Larry Brooks, Zuccarello is looking for a new contract that will pay him around $2 million per season while the Rangers are likely offering a deal that would pay him $1.5 million per season. However, Zuccarello told TV2 in Norway that the two sides aren't far apart and he is not seeking $2 million a year.
Here is the evidence that can be used in arbitration cases:
- The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons.
- Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played.
- The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL.
- The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure.
- The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal."
- The performance and salary of any player alleged to be "comparable" to the player in the dispute.
Evidence that is not admissible:
- The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent.
- Testimonials, video and media reports.
- The financial state of the team.
- The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll
So where to now. If the Rangers did in fact offer him the $1.5 mil per year, that seems relatively reasonable as to what the arbitrator would award him based on production to date and the arguments that can and cannot be used as noted above. In addition, if the Zucc isn't asking for $2 mil and the Rangers are in fact offering $1.5 mil, it would seem an agreement should be close at hand, but of course, it's very likely that each of those numbers are off, possibly by a wide amount.
In everything the Rangers do now, they have to be concerned with how close they are to the cap and what type of deal they will give Derek Stepan. Signing Zucc or Stepan first would enable them to know how much wiggle room they have, with my guesstimate right now is that there is about $5.5 million available. That is based on Asham/Powe/Johnson going down, with only 200k of their $2.667 million impacting the cap, and does not include JT Miller and his $1.2 million coming up, moving the available room to that $5.5 million. That number could change slightly when the year started as Callahan and Hagelin could start the year on LTIR, freeing up space that could be filled by Danny Kristo and his $1.3 mil as well as Miler's $1.2 million.
My view, and you know I want MZA back, is to sign Zuccarello to a two year deal, offer him $1.4 this year and $1.6 next for a $1.5 cap hit, leaving $4 mil for Stepan. If you think Falk will also start the year in the minors, take part of his 975k, allocate about 150k to Zucc's cap hit this year and next and 500k to Stepan, making MZA hit $1.55 and $1.75 the next two years and Stepan's deal $4.5 mil. In addition, if no ones goes to LTIR and Miller comes up, someone else may have to go with Taylor Pyatt and Brian Boyle the likely candidates.
What do you think?
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