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Forslund offers clues to JR's cryptic free agent comments

July 15, 2013, 12:49 PM ET [13 Comments]
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Early today, I put up a blog more or less evaluating the current state of the team despite the fact that it may change more between now and training camp. If you are catching up, you might want to take a quick look at that.

With that I move quickly back to last week's game. Since the dust settled on the first day of free agency, the Canes have been like one of "those piece together the clues" crime dramas on TV with speculation from everyone that covers or follows the team combined with cryptic Jim Rutherford sound bites.

Today on a morning radio show Canes announcer John Forslund seemed to clarify things a little bit by saying that the team was looking to add a defenseman and would need to also subtract a defenseman or at least salary. Cue the next round of speculation.

With media and management both around PNC Arena this week for the prospects camp, expect the fun to continue...

The context is this:

1) Canes have 4 top defensemen in Justin Faulk, Joni Pitkanen, Tim Gleason and Andrej Sekera.

2) I do not view Mike Komisarek or Jay Harrison as the type you would move into the top 4 as a regular to start the season with Harrison being a veteran 3rd pairing type and Komisarek coming off a rough run in Toronto and needing to take baby steps just to reestablish himself as a capable NHL regular before moving to bigger things. I do not think the budget could hold an upgrade of 1 of these spots anyway.

3) Joni Pitkanen is coming off a strange heel injury that leaves some uncertainty, is making $4.5M this season and is a free agent next summer.

Everything points to the Canes trying to make a change amongst the top 4. Justin Faulk is going absolutely nowhere. It would seem very odd for the Canes to sign and then turn around and trade Sekera a few weeks later especially with his cap-friendly salary that helps make the math work. That leaves Tim Gleason and Joni Pitkanen as possibilities to be the player that Rutherford is looking to move.

The thing that makes the most sense is the Ron Hainsey add combined with a Joni Pitkanen trade which has been bandied around on Twitter quite a bit. That deal makes sense on multiple fronts.

1) Hainsey fits similarly in the lineup to Pitkanen. He is a left-shot, puck-moving, offense-oriented/power play capable defenseman just like Pitkanen, so he could swap pretty much into that same role. With McBain and Corvo gone and additions of Komisarek and Sekera not so much power play types, the team needs to be careful that in the process of tightening up the defensive aspect of the blue line that it does not swing too wildly in the other direction and become unable to contribute to the offense and move the puck.

2) The move significantly reduces risk for October and going forward. I have not read anything yet to suggest that Joni Pitkanen will not be ready for camp or the start of the season, but his broken heel injury is an odd one that seems to have a higher risk factor than your run-of-the-mill/happens 30 times per season type of hockey injury. Besides the heel injury, Pitkanen has struggled to stay healthy for a couple years now, so Hainsey could provide a greater comfort level. This is important for the obvious reason of filling out a lineup, but could also provide the degree of safety that makes Rutherford feel comfortable spending what is left under the salary cap versus saving it in case of emergency issues on defense or if Pitkanen has a setback.

3) Per the comment that immediately followed, a discounted swap in replacement for Pitkanen could also help with the squeeze effort to get under the salary cap and not start the season with 5 AHL players in the bottom 6 of the forwards. If Hainsey signed for $3M/year for example, that would free up $1.5M which could be the wiggle room needed to go get at least 1 more veteran forward either via trade taking on salary or from the remaining free agent options.

While my bet would be on Pitkanen for the trade especially if the target is Hainsey, I think there is some chance that it could also be Gleason. You get Pitkanen and Hainsey as puck movers paired with Faulk and Sekera who are little safer defensively.

Who knows really, but I feel pretty strongly that the “need to subtract one to add one” option is Hainsey. A few quick comments on other possibilities:

--Ryan Whitney. He is even more of a reclamation project than Komisarek, so I do not see how he could be any more than a depth (#6/#7) defenseman, so you definitely would not replace a top 4 with him, and I do not see Rutherford looking to trade Harrison who is solid in the right role or Komisarek who just came aboard to change up the bottom pairing.

--Doug Murray. Again, he is not really a top 4 and looks about like what the Canes already have in Harrison and Komisarek with size and physicality on the 3rd pairing.

Most of the other random options are similarly depth players who would go into a #5-7 slot and therefore do not seem to make sense with the need to also trade a player.

If this path is correct, it sounds like Rutherford already tried but was unable to find a team willing to take on Pitkanen’s injury risk at this time. This situation could resolve itself to some degree when training camp starts, but it seems unlikely that someone like Hainsey would wait around that long.

Up tomorrow will be a Canes prospect camp preview blog featuring Elias Lindholm.

If you are Twitter-inclined follow me at CarolinaMatt63 and also feel free to holler at me there. I hopped aboard the Twitter train more substantially about 3-4 months ago and am more active there than I was for the time prior.

Go Canes!
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