With nearly $13 million in salary cap space, according to Capgeek, the St. Louis Blues look to be a cap ceiling team opposed to a cap floor team once their key Restricted Free Agents ink new deals.
Don't expect that to be the case come training camp.
In 2012-13 they spent roughly $52.1 million on payroll. Only the league owned Phoenix Coyotes spent less ($49 million). That said, it was quite a jump from just two seasons before. Under former owner Dave Checketts they spent just $44.5 million in 2010-11. However, last season's mark was down from $54.8 million dolled out the season before (2011-12). A drastic increase precipitated by the need to field a stronger team on the ice to increase the franchise value at sale and to meet the increasing lower limit.
In comparison to the rest of the NHL, the highest the Blues have finished is 22nd in terms of payroll since 2008-09.
As much of a need as there is to retain home grown talent on the rise, which means shelling out big bucks, and current owner Tom Stillman's remarks that spending will increase, history and recent events indicate otherwise.
Recent events? Don't forget about the Peoria Rivermen.
The Blues owned their AHL affiliate till they sold off minor league team to the Vancouver Canucks earlier this year. While the Rivermen staff made significant strides in slowing the bleeding to improve the bottom line over the last few years, it wasn't enough to justify continued operation from the perspective of those three hours south. In reality very few AHL teams "make money". Without financially strong NHL ownership absorbing the costs the difficulty in running two franchises instead of one becomes too great to maintain.
A decision had to be made. Good business sense won out over what should produce a better on team on the ice long term. Save the cash and invest it in the product that is more likely to "make money".
Where will the savings go?
Defenseman Alex Pietrangelo is the obvious candidate as his next contract will more closelt resemble Erik Karlsson's or Kris Letang's rather than the four year deal teammate Kevin Shattenkirk signed a few weeks ago. Something in the $7 to $7.5 million range will consume a little more than half of the available cap space.
The remaining $6 million or so in space will need to cover forwards Chris Stewart and Magnus Paajarvi. Unless things change, like a trade, Jake Allen will likely spend most of the season in the AHL with the Blues' new affiliate, the Chicago Wolves. His salary won't factor in to the cap. It also won't be as large as either of the two wingers.
Considering Pietrangelo's contract will surpass the Blues' highest payroll over the last 7 seasons by $5 million and Stewart is heading to arbitration, the question becomes is Stewart the right player to bank on with a value contact and does Stillman view him as such?
I can't answer for the owner, but I can say put in my two bits on if he is the right player. Throughout his career Stewart has been, to put it diplomatically, inconsistent. More accurately described as a perceived lack of effort to execute in the ways in which the coaching staff would like. Generally not a trait rewarded by GM Doug Armstrong with a lucrative contract. The one who has been given such a deal, David Perron, has been traded.
Doesn't bode well for fans of Stewart in St. Louis.
All of the above said, trading the second of three forwards who scored more than 10 goals last season will not sit well with an anxious fans base with a growing impatience for stagnation. After all this club needs more goal scorers, not fewer, right? HAd the back of the net been found with just a scant more regularity the Kings wouldn't have bounced the note for the second straight post season. A team known for its generally diminutive size upfront can't afford to lose a 6-foot-2, 230 lbs force down the wing, right? They wouldn't be pushed around by Western Conference heavy weights anymore.
The problem isn't the player type, it was the type of player.
In Ken Hitchcock's 200 foot, stifling, puck possession system skaters need to know where to be, when to be there, and actually executing both.It requires all of that for a full 60 minutes each game. Doing as such can make slower teams seem faster, smaller teams seem bigger, and make good teams look great. It's how the four teams that appeared in the the Conference Finals, who all won one of the last four Stanley Cups, made it where they did.
The Blues need a square player to fit in a square hole. Not a round peg.
This is how the Blues can keep payroll down and still improve.
The presumption is that Stewart will earn a hefty deal in arbitration. One they may not want to pay for. If that ends up being the case then the focus should turn to trade. Not just in a salary dump scenario, but in swapping an asset for an asset.
With Ilya Kovalchuk departing from the New Jersey Devils, could they be searching for another scoring winger? With Adam Henrique being a RFAs who will likely sign for less AAV than the beefy right winger, could he be had in a direct swap?
Possibly.
Why would this work?
Captain David Backes could move back to his natural right wing position. His success in the middle is well documented, but he could provide a greater bang for the buck offensively from the winger than he can in the middle. Russian prospect Vladimir Tarasenko should be ready to step in to a larger role in 2013-14. With Backes on the wing TJ Oshie is optimized, offensively, in a less complicated defensive matchup role.
Removal of Backes from center does leave a large void, but not one that Henrique couldn't fill in admirably. His face-off percentage is not far off from Backes' (both right at 49%) and over the last two seasons have been utilized in similar ways. Both have Offensive Zone Start %s below 50% and face the highest Quality of Competition out of their respective team's lineup. Their Corsi For % per 20 minutes played were 53.4% (Henrique) vs. 53.1% (Backes).
Why would NJ potentially do this?
They've got a top line center in Travis Zajac. Henrique won't dislodge him from that title. Jacob Josefson and Andrei Loktionov are prospects due to be full time NHL players. Devils fans keep me honest, but hasn't Patrik Elias played in the middle as well? Stewart would come in at a far cheaper rate and shorter term investment than Kovalchuk whose roster spot he would take. He would also fit in with the plus sized forward corps (Clarkson, Clowe, & Ryder) that's been built this summer for Devils GM Lou Lamoriello.
What would it take to sign Henrique?
The Devils SB Nation blog, In Lou We Trust, did a lengthy
write up pondering this question back in May. The cap hits they listed for comparison mostly come in well below that of what Stewart will likely have. Going in to a two or three year term would allow the Blues to let Derek Roy walk after a season if the experiment doesn't work. It should also provide depth in the middle if Patrik Berglund departs after his one year deal is up next summer.
Personally, I'd rather see the Blues give Henrique a Mikko Koivu like deal, 4 years and $13 million ($3.25 mil AAV), than go through another season flipping a coin to see if the Stewart that shows up to the rink is one Hitchcock can put to full use.
For those who like to see these sorts of things broken out in to combinations, let's take a look..
Steen - Henrique - Backes
Schwartz - Roy - Tarasenko
Paajarvi - Berglund - Oshie
Sobotka - Lapierre - Reaves
Porter / Cracknell
versus
Steen - Backes - Oshie
Schwartz - Berglund - Tarasenko
Paajarvi - Roy - Stewart
Sobotka - Lapierre - Reaves
Porter / Cracknell
On paper there is likely little disagreement to be had that the second set of forwards should score more goals that the first. But let's remember that in Hitch's system that scoring comes from possession and counter attack which comes from oppressive pressure from the full 5 man unit up and down the ice. If Stewart doesn't fully participate in the aspects of the system that create offense, then the goals won't come. If a player like Henrique, that is arguably more likely to fully participate and play the square style the system needs, is on board then the puck is behind Halak and Elliott less often than it's behind the opposing netminder.
Don't get hung up on line order and who is where. Three lines capable of scoring is a requirement for success in this era of the game.
We'll see what moves are made, but something will be done to keep the Blues closer to their "Have Not" status and historical payroll levels rather than pretending to be a "Have" franchise.
Regarding Conklin
At first glance bringing back recently retired netminder Ty Conklin as a goalie development coach seemed strange. Given how he left the organization and trimming front office salaries over the last few years.
Digging deeper it does make some sense.
Conklin's salary hits the books for less than the money that would have been spent on Peoria's coaching staff. Since the Blues do not own their new affiliate in Chicago having a development coach to monitor and work with Allen and prospect Jordan Binnington will yield more control of their development than what they would have had without Conklin.
How will you remember Shanny?
Most fans around the NHL will remember Brendan Shanahan for his time in Detroit or in the greater New York City area. But Blues fans will remember him for different things. How will you?
- For the loss of Scott Stevens?
- For the acquisition of Chris Pronger?
- For "stealing" the wife of a teammate (Craig Janney)?
- Other?
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Have at it in the comments. Thanks for reading. As always, you're welcome to follow me on Twitter to talk hockey:
@jtquirin 
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