Unless we get surprised by a trade for a higher-end defenseman, I think the Canes roster is pretty set on the back end and in goal. To kill time in the summer until we get ice at PNC Arena, we could debate pairings for hours, but order aside the 6 are Andrej Sekera/Justin Faulk, Joni Pitkanen/Tim Gleason, Jay Harrison/Mike Komisarek. Brett Bellemore and Ryan Murphy would provide depth from the AHL level if needed.
With 6 dmen already on the roster the juggling is more complicated, but I would still do Skinner for Yandle or similar in a heartbeat. From everything Rutherford says, I would be very surprised at this point if anything like that happens.
A more realistic hope is that Rutherford and his scouting department are working very hard to land 2 good depth defenseman on 2-way contracts to add no-risk depth within reach if needed at the AHL level. Right now, a bunch of players like Bobby Sanguinetti have their agents seeking 2 things in order: 1) A 1-way contract of any kind anywhere; 2) Plan B-The 2-way deal that places them highest on the organizational depth chart and closest to NHL ice time. With only 6 experienced NHL defensemen and very little volume in terms of both number of players and amount of NHL experience behind that, the Canes should have a very strong appeal once many of the depth players realize that there is no 1-way contract to be had. Jonathan Blum is 1 good target. Blum obviously has not made it otherwise Nashville would not have let him go for nothing, but as a 1st round pick who is only 24 years old and who has 91 games of NHL experience, he is easily worth a no-risk 2-way contract and a spot in Charlotte. Given the time invested in him and his familiarity with the system, I would also take Bobby Sanguinetti back if his search for greener pastures comes up empty. Certainly the scouting department has a better read on the 15-20 fringe players with maybe a little NHL experience who might similarly be available on a no-risk 2-way contract to provide more depth.
With the Anton Khudobin signing, the Canes should also be set in goal.
The forward lines on the other hand are wide open right now:
--Veteran Jussi Jokinen was jettisoned at the 2013 trade deadline, and Chad Larose and Tim Brent have been seemingly sent to look elsewhere this summer.
--The Canes youth at forward did little to seize on abundant opportunities last season.
--And the Canes have not landed a single free agent to date making Elias Lindholm the only addition to build out 3 forward lines.
We can debate again whether Jeff Skinner and Jordan Staal can work on the same line or whether they will perform better separated on 2A and 2B lines, but it just shifts an opening around, so let me put forward the following as a discussion point for building out the forward lines:
1: Tlusty / EStaal / Semin
2: LW2 / JStaal / Ruutu
3: Skinner / C3 / RW3
4: LW4 / C4 / Dwyer // Westgarth as #13 forward for nights when you need him
The result is that there are a whopping 5 slots still open. 1 is the C3 slot previously occupied by Jussi Jokinen through most of 2013. Another 2 are the RW3 and C4 slots filled for most of the year by veterans Chad Larose and Tim Brent who seem destined to play elsewhere next year as the Canes try new options and ideally look to get bigger. Necessitated by Ruutu’s injury and lack of any youth seizing the opportunity, Patrick Dwyer spent most of the year in some variety of W2 slot. Per my previous blogs, I like Dwyer, but think that he is overslotted in a 2nd line role.
So how do the Canes fill 5 holes at forward given the slim pickings left on the free agent market and following a disappointing year in terms of youth taking the next step winning and excelling in NHL roles?
First, ideal would be to somehow find 1-2 more veteran forwards. The free agent pickings are pretty slim at this point. The Jaromir Jagr thing is interesting. He was okay but not lights out in the playoffs (0 goals is glaring even with other contributions), but his scoring pace for the regular season was still a pretty solid 60-point pace (projected over 82-game schedule). And while he may not be the fastest up and down the ice at this stage of his career he is still incredibly strong with the puck on his stick in the offensive zone. On the Canes, if you shifted Ruutu to the left side, a line of Ruutu/JStaal/Jagr would be an incredibly big cycling /puck possession line with an injection of playmaking with Jagr holding the puck while Ruutu and Staal crash the net. Though not overly physical, he could also add size and complementary skill to a young line with Skinner/Lindholm. It is hard to say whether the line would be more dangerous offensively of defensively (in terms of giving up chances), but if you picked matchups and got Skinner and Jagr more of their extra ice time as regulars on the power play maybe the line could work.
The only other 2 that I like are Brenden Morrow and Nik Antropov. Both bring another big body to the lineup though obviously with less skill than Jagr. Morrow would bring a very healthy dose of physicality and grit, though he seems to be transitioning to more of a 3rd line depth player at this stage of his career. He would be another option to make the JStaal big, physical and built for puck possession and physical wars. If he could shift across to RW (questionable), he would provide a bigger body and great protection for a kid combination like Skinner/Lindholm on a 3rd line. I think some would lump Antropov in a similar category to Dustin Penner (see below) as a big, skilled player who just leaves you wanting too much more. Maybe it is just greater familiarity from seeing more of him in the Eastern Conference, but for a low salary, I would take a low-risk flyer on Antropov if the team cannot lure Jagr or Morrow (probably seeking a chance to win the Cup) and cannot swing any trades to improve at forward.
I am not thrilled with any of the other bigger names on the free agent market:
--Dustin Penner. What’s not to like about 6-4 240 lbs with some skill except that he just has never lived up to hopes and has seemed disinterested for stretches.
--Mason Raymond. He is a decent option as another smallish skilled scoring type of forward. We probably already have too much of that, and it goes against the goal to get bigger/grittier.
--Mikhail Grabovski. See Mason Raymond.
--Brad Boyes. See Raymond and Grabovski.
Here is how I handicap the battle/path to filling the open slots:
C3: Lindholm’s spot to win. If he does not win it outright it becomes an open competition between him, Rask and Nash.
LW2 and RW3: Ideally, at least 1 of these spots would be filled by a veteran. As noted above, Jagr could fill either (1 directly/1 indirectly). He could play RW3 paired with 2 skilled kids (Skinner & Lindholm) which could be dynamic offensively with maybe some questions defensively. Alternatively, if he played RW on JStaal’s line and Ruutu moved to LW2, that line could become a real strong puck possession/cycling line also with an injection of skill/playmaking. For the 2nd of these 2 slots, I figure the same collection of kids who have not done it yet (Dalpe, Boychuk, Terry) who have not done it yet get another shot at it otherwise the plan B is to move Dwyer up again.
LW4: Bowman’s spot to win. He is decent defensively, the most experienced of the youth and also on a 1-way contract that pays him $600k even if sent to the AHL.
C4: Nash’s spot to win. This is the 2nd of 2 spots (along w/LW2) that causes me the most heartburn. I wanted for a relatively inexpensive veteran who would be a significant boost to the penalty kill and solidify the defense for the 4th line. I don’t think the Canes had any real shot at my 3 targets: Gordon was way too expensive at a crazy $3M, Handzus seemed to choose Chicago over salary and it is not clear whether Lapierre would have even considered a Canes offer.
Adding 1-2 decent depth defenseman to the AHL squad, landing 1 more veteran forward for a reasonable price and keeping some salary cap in reserve in case of emergency might set up an interesting training camp that sees legitimate battles for 3-4 forward roster spots to be won in camp.
I would be happy to go into October with defense and goalie as is and forward lines of Tlusty/EStaal/Semin, Ruutu/JStaal/Jagr, Skinner/Lindholm/big gritty forward who ideally can play PK like Morrow, open tryout spot-I pick Bowman/Nash/Dwyer + Westgarth.
We bandied this around on Twitter prior to my blog, but feel free to post comments here to if you missed that or still can’t get enough hockey debate during the dog days of summer.
For a quick heads up when I post a Canes blog and to be part of the occasional Twitter banter follow me at CarolinaMatt63.
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