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Caveat Emptor- Setoguchi to Winnipeg

July 6, 2013, 12:14 AM ET [7 Comments]
Peter Tessier
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So Setoguchi huh?

After a day filled with inactivity by the Winnipeg Jets, the result being an angry twitter mob of fans, building with each tweet a mounting level of frustration the GM pulled off the most unlikely deal. He traded a 2014 2nd round pick for Devon Setoguchi from the Wild.

Could stranger bedfellows be made? Probably not as when these teams played each other in the inaugural season for the Winnipeg Jets there was bloodlust in the crowds in Minny and Winnipeg. These teams, and their respective fans, new they would soon be rivals based on geography alone and those games were battles, now there is extra incentive.

Today when Setoguchi was announced as the newest member of the Winnipeg Jets the fans here, at least some of them, breathed a sigh of relief. The GM was not at the cottage, he was not asleep at the wheel and he was addressing what even many other media knew were obvious roster shortcomings.
I’ll be honest; I didn’t pay a whole lot of attention to the Wild last season nor any one particular player on the roster. So I took a look at a few things that I’d thought I’d share.

First off there’s enough outrage or general malaise towards the deal from Minny fans that I sense something is up from their perspective. More importantly I’m not sure Setoguchi was used in the same way that he will be in Winnipeg,

For instance Setoguchi does not show much in the way of solid possession numbers, mediocre at best but not awful. Gooch is a guy who can score goals though so I wonder if he has a decent points track record why the low Corsi numbers?

First off his o-ice shooting percentage is close 10.3%, which is pretty good and his on ice save percentage is .927 (all stats 5v5) so he is not necessarily costing his team with low corsi numbers.
What I look at next to see how he is being used is zone starts- and he has a 48% Ozone start rate vs a 44% Ozone finish rate. For a guy who can score that seems an odd way of using him. For instance Gooch is second on the Wild for points per 60 minutes of play at 2.15

For comparison he would have been 3rd on the Jets right behind Wheeler and Ladd of players who played more than 10 games.

So I took a look at whom Setoguchi plays with as his top line mates based on TOI when he is on the ice. Cullen, Suter and Brodin were his most frequent complimentary players. Suter had a great season earning him a Norris nomination and Cullen earned some coin via free agency this year.

Cullen is a 36 year-old vet though and Brodin is a rookie who notched 2 goals and 9 assists playing with Gooch. Combined the two most frequent forward line mates of Setoguchi had 9 goals and 27 assists for 36 between them. Gooch had 27 points in 48 games last year.

The fact is that the Jets took a risk with their draft pick and a player who is a UFA after next season but it would be hard to argue it’s not a smart calculated risk. Gooch brings some question marks but look at the other side, he’s playing for his next contract and only costs the Jets 3 million a year.

If he is in the decline that some think then he’s easily let go or traded at the deadline and if there is some improvement for him and the team if gives Chevy another option longer term should circumstances dictate. Like Frolik this player is not meant to be a long-term solution, at least not before they have played a game for the Jets.

That’s the difference between what many of Chevy’s counterparts did today, they went to find fixes, solutions and value for years to come. Rightly or wrongly that’s not the Jets’ way of doing business. I’d rather know the player I’m committing time and money to before I do offer a deal and I think that’s how the Jets feel too. IF and when they offer a long-term deal (as they have Evander Kane and surely Bogosian next) it’s because they know what they are acquiring. I’m not so sure some of the GMs can say with absolute certainty they know what they bought today.

For a team who had little in the cupboard before last weekend and a lot of holes, it’s quite amazing what a few simple moves can do for the fans’ psyche. You may not agree with the ‘process’ but if you care about risk management there’s no faulting it.
For the past few months there have been many words written about how this summer and off-season are Chevy’s time to put his stamp on the team. For those paying attention that stamp should be taking shape as the moves you don’t make are just as important and telling as the ones you do make.
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