Capology of Lecavalier Signing
Apart from the five-year length of the contract that free agent Vincent Lecavalier has agreed to with the Flyers, there is really not much to criticize about the deal. The deal makes sense from a hockey standpoint and is not nearly as crippling to the Flyers' salary cap as the knee-jerk naysayers -- and there's a legion of those -- would like you to believe.
In my
initial reaction blog posted last night, I explained why the team will not have a major problem in getting restricted free agents Claude Giroux, Brayden Schenn and Sean Couturier signed to contract extensions even before considering the projected jump in the cap ceiling by as much as $6 million for the 2014-15 season.
Recapping the blog in a nutshell, the Flyers will have roughly $11 million in tagging space worth of expiring contracts next summer based on impending unrestricted free agents on their current roster -- with the likely-to-retire Kimmo Timonen's $6 million representing more than half of it.
The Flyers are NOT even in that much trouble getting back under the 2013-14 salary cap before Chris Pronger's $4.9 million long-term injury reserve allowance is eligible to be used. The club is currently $318,522 over the cap ceiling for next season, but getting compliant will not be all that difficult even with other additions yet to be made to complete the roster.
Philadelphia currently has 24 players under contract. Restricted free agent Erik Gustafsson and, by NHL-mandated rules regarding injured players, Eric Wellwood, are also both likely to be on the NHL roster come opening night, adding about $1.5 million more onto Philly's cap figure.
OK, so let's go through how Philly is likely to pare down the cap before addressing other needs. Start with the defense, where the team currently has nine contracted players, including Pronger.
One of Andrej Meszaros ($4 million cap hit, unrestricted free agent in 2014), Braydon Coburn ($4.5 million cap hit, partial no-trade clause) or Nicklas Grossmann ($3.5 million cap hit, partial no-trade) is likely to get dealt. When all is said and done, I still expect it be Meszaros who goes in a salary-dump for a low-end Draft pick. As a last-resort incentive to get another team to take a chance on Meszaros' recovery, the Flyers could even eat up to half of the oft-injured player's salary, gaining "just" $2 million of cap space if they can't get the entire amount.
The big obstacle with Meszaros getting dealt is his getting medical clearance -- which is expected this month -- and passing a physical with his new team so that a trade would not be nullified by the trading partner's choice. But he's a good and proven NHL defenseman when healthy, is still reasonably young, and happens to play a position where many teams need at least one addition. That's why clubs are hoarding their defensemen who are even half-decent, the salary scales for non-entry level defensemen are out of whack and the trading prices are generally inflated. There will be a club or two willing to gamble on a minimal trade return to take a one-year look at Meszaros.
If it is Coburn who gets traded, the Flyers will have to add another defenseman who is capable of absorbing all the ice time that Coburn currently plays. In the case of Meszaros, the team really hasn't even had him available to play in their lineup for much of the last year, anyway. At some point, Oliver Lauridsen may be ready to take over Grossmann's role at a lower cost, but that point isn't now. The Big Dane still needs some work in the AHL.
Subtract Meszaros and add Gustafsson after he signs, and the Flyers are back to having nine defensemen under contract. They will only carry seven, with Pronger on either IR or LTIR. One of Bruno Gervais ($825,000) or a now medically cleared Marc-Andre Bourdon ($612,500) will be the seventh defenseman and the other will be waived and sent to the Phantoms -- and both of their salaries fall within the threshold that the entire cap hit will come off if they are sent to the AHL.
Of course, the Flyers still need to acquire a goaltender (say, Tim Thomas in the ballpark of $3 million) to either back up or compete with Steve Mason. But if they find a Meszaros trade partner and drop Gervais by opening night, they have the money they need for a goalie and are still below the cap ceiling BEFORE Pronger goes on the IR list.
So don't worry about the Flyers getting within the cap in either 2013-14 or 2014-15. They may not be able to re-sign Simon Gagne at this point and Matt Read's impending UFA status next summer could push his market value beyond what the Flyers' want to spend on what is essentially a high-quality role player whose role is to play either wing or center as needed either on a scoring or checking line. But they are not nearly in the cap hell that some would have you believe.
My big concern has nothing to do with the salary cap: In order to get back into the playoffs, this team is going to have to cut its goals against average next season. Mark Streit will help them move the puck better and both he and Lecavalier should help them keep puck possession in the offensive zone longer. Even so, the Flyers' team defense remains suspect.
Lecavalier's Fit in Flyers' Lineup
Lecavalier is not the player he was about five years ago but, at age 33, is still a quality second-line center. He represents an upgrade over Danny Briere in several areas, while being the younger of the two players and coming at a lower cost on the salary cap.
The Flyers wanted to add some size and skill to their forward corps, and Lecavalier adds both (although he doesn't often play a physical style). He is good on faceoffs, averaging roughly a 51 percent winning percentage over the last five years. That's an upgrade, too. Lecavalier is OK defensively. He's better than Danny defensively but is no Selke candidate. The addition of Lecavalier means that Brayden Schenn will become a full-time left wing, but at least he won't be constantly switching positions and can settle in at one spot.
From a hockey standpoint, my only real short-range concerns related to Lecavalier are about how well he'll fit Peter Laviolette's system. He's not really an up-tempo player, especially at this point of his career. Additionally, Lecavalier has been known to disappear at times during his career -- he will take some mental holidays for entire games.
All in all, however, there is plenty to like about Lecavalier's addition to the lineup.
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