Today my informal Sekera/McBain trade poll of people willing to yap back and forth with me here and there on Twitter yielded the following:
1) Andrej Sekera is an upgrade to McBain defensively.
2) No way is he enough to call the blue line rebuild for the 2013-14 season done.
I concur on both accounts. IF the Canes somehow add a top 4 defenseman over the coming weeks, then with this player plus Sekera, the team is better but also importantly much deeper entering the new season. If instead, the next addition clearly slots below Sekera and is more of a sure 3rd pairing/depth defenseman then I am concerned.
I think Sekera has the potential to be a heady Jim Rutherford addition that becomes another under the radar addition who magically fills a top 4 slot. Rutherford does have a history of these 'diamond in the rough' type of finds. Aaron Ward was a young depth defenseman cast off by Detroit for about nothing in the summer of 2001 before holding down a top 4 slot during the Canes 2002 playoff run. Mike Commodore and Frantisek Kaberle were both ho-hum signings prior to the 2006 Stanley Cup-winning season. And Joe Corvo (the 1st time around) was a reclamation project that filled a top 4 slot during the successful 2008-09 season.
So if I think it is possible that Andrej Sekera could be the next great Jim Rutherford blue line find, why am I clamoring for more help on defense?
It is about situation and risk. After 4 misses and now with a salary cap ceiling salary base, the Canes desperately need to climb back into the playoffs. Timing could not be worse for entry into a new division full of good hockey teams. And more significant is the risk factor and the lack of a margin for error with Andrej Sekera's slot minus any help. If the Canes had 3 rock solid top 4 defensemen and then also some 3rd pairing youth who might quickly grow into a top 4 role, I would feel different. But instead the Canes have this:
--Tim Gleason who is coming off a rough season where he looked more like a player who belonged in the #5/#6 already occupied by Jay Harrison. Is he in decline at this point in his career? Or will he rebound after a more normal off-season and training camp? I lean optimistic but do not ignore the risk.
--Joni Pitkanen is coming off a strange injury. In theory, he should be ready to go to start the season, but who really knows for sure? And at what level will he play? Even if his heel is fine, he has now had trouble staying healthy for 2 consecutive seasons.
--Justin Faulk. Had he not taken an oversized step forward in development during the 2012-13 season, the defense would have been an even bigger train wreck. I do think he is ready to be an 82-game top 4 defenseman. But let's face it, on a team with a solid defense and some quality veteran depth (i.e. Boston or Chicago) would he really be any different than their decent young defensemen playing in a 3rd pairing type of role and gradually working his way up? I am not so sure. But he has been expedited out of necessity and lack of better options has Faulk on a faster track than guys like Hamilton and Krug in Boston or maybe Leddy in Chicago. But there is a chance that he hits bumps along the way. Despite how good he was in 2012-13, I think it is unfair to ask Faul at age 21 to drag a top pairing along without top-tier quality help.
The situation would also be better if the Canes had players in the 3rd pairing who might be able to step into the top 4. There are 2 kinds of potential help here: 1) Veterans who are borderline top 4 skill level (think Niclas Wallin); 2) Younger players who seem to be on a path to be a top 4 but are not quite there yet (think Justin Faulk...oh wait...we already moved him up the top 4...nevermind). The Canes have virtually nothing to backstop whoever they slot into the top 4. I really like Jay Harrison and what he brings in terms of physical play, okay penalty-killing, character, willingness to stand up for teammates, etc., but I just do not think he is capable of being more than a short-term fill in for the top 4 on a team that is playoff bound in the Canes new division. And I do not think any of the current youth options are close to being even a top 4 fill in. I like Bellemore and his simple game for a #7/3rd pairing/fill in defenseman. I like Murphy's upside, but because of his size/defensive ability, I think he is a couple years away from being more than a specialized role 3rd pairing defenseman. If Sanguinetti returns, I think he is only gradually working up to being a serviceable #5/#6 defenseman and a long way from being someone you can trust in the top 4.
If you had a rock solid first 3 defenseman, there would be more fliexibility for the level you get for the 4th. Potential help/fill ins from below would also help. But the Canes really have neither. The result is that the Canes need a sure thing addition to the top 4. I just am not sure that Sekera is this guy. However, if you get a truer top 4 and suddenly Sekera is the #5, I am thrilled. The top 4 is improved, and the team actually has an extra option for building a top 4. If someone gets hurt, Sekera steps in. If Gleason does not regain previous form maybe you swap Sekera and Gleason, etc.
So the Canes should just go sign a top free agent right? It is not that simple. First of all, the options for free agents are limited this summer. And then there is the money problem. Right now, the Canes have $6.4M left beneatch the salary cap, but they only have 10 forwards under 1-way NHL contracts. And minus enough top 9 forwards, it does not look as simple as plugging a couple NHL minimum salary forwards in something like the #12 and #13 slots. And this assumes that the Canes are happy with Welsh and Peters in the opening night lineup. Both are on 1-way contracts, so even if they get sent to the minors because someone else is signed, they still count against the salary cap. I think the Canes need to budget something more than the minimum to get at least 1 if not 2 forwards who can help build out the 3rd line, PK units, etc. This would suggest the team will be lucky to have about $4M left for 1 more defenseman add assuming that they do not trade salary to get this player. It is possible that the team can shoehorn a defenseman into the budget and still get maybe 1 veteran forward for the 3rd line, but it will be tight. It is this financial challenge combined with the risks inherent in Jeff Skinner that have me considering trading Skinner for a comparably skilled defenseman. It solves the defensive problems, creates some financial flexiblity to build a 3rd line via free agents and significantly cuts risk in my opinion.
But my fear is that Rutherford is thinking like this:
1) Andrej Sekera is the big add on defense.
2) The "more" that Rutherford spoke of after the trade is to backfill McBain with a 3rd pairing defenseman.
3) He then spends what little he has left working on priority #2, building out a 3rd line.
4) Only after all the money is gone do we get to see if he pulled off another masterful creation of a playoff caliber blue line on the cheap or if he missed again. Odds over past 12 seasons suggest that this project has a 25% chance of success (only 3 playoff appearances over last 12 seasons).
I really think that the Canes and Jim Rutherford are cursed by past success pulling off these low odds projects with great success in 2002, 2006 and 2009. If I get a chance, I will write that up in more detail next. But focused on the here and now, I really think the other defenseman added needs to be top 4 material not a Jamie McBain 3rd pairing backfill.
I highlighted a list of 10 options in a blog about a week back. Unless LA signs him before then, Rob Scuderi comes into play Friday when the free agent frenzy starts. A few of the trade options that I liked are theoretically out there now for Rutherford to try. The magical Flyer math that has Holmgren signing a new $5M/year contract every week despite entering the summer over budget could see Braydon Coburn available in addition to Meszaros who I called out in the other blog. If they are not over the cap yet, they will be with next week's signing...or the one after that...or otherwise the next one...
What say you Canes fans? With the addition of Andrej Sekera, do you think Rutherford is happy with his top 4 and just looking to add a quality #5 at this point? If so, does that scare you? Who do you like for options to fill out the top 4 if you do not think Rutherford is shopping the lower tier already?
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Go Canes!
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