Safe Picks vs. Highest Upside
There is always an element of risk involved in the NHL Draft. Projecting the future development of teenage players is an imperfect science and true "can't miss" prospects are not very easy to find.
Most every Draft, however, has a handful of prospects who are considered "safe" picks. These are players whose frames have already filled out and/or whose games have already developed to a level that makes them NHL-ready immediately or at least expected to be close to it within a season of their Draft year. These players may not always have the same upside in the long-range future, but the risk of the player being an outright bust is lower unless the player sustains a serious injury or scouts seriously miscalculated how well his game will translate to the professional level.
Sometimes, teams end up with regrets for bypassing the safer pick for the riskier one.
For instance, in the 2007 Draft, Karl Alzner was far and away considered to be the safest defense prospect in the Draft. With the fourth overall pick, the Los Angeles Kings opted to roll the dice on Thomas Hickey; a much lower-rated player in the Central Scouting rating but someone with a projected higher offensive upside whom LA considered to be potential home run. Alzner went fifth overall to Washington.
Fast forward to 2013: Alzner has turned out to be exactly what he was projected to be. He's a rock solid defensive defenseman whom Washington relies upon to play against other teams' top lines. He doesn't produce many points from the back line but he's an important player on his team. Hickey never was able to crack the Kings' NHL roster and was picked up on waivers by the Islanders this year, where he finally made his NHL debut.
Sometimes, teams look foolish in retrospect for making the conservative pick when there was a player with higher upside available for the taking.
An example from Flyers history: In the 1990 Draft, the Flyers owned the fourth overall pick. Flyers general manager Russ Farwell coveted Czech forward Petr Nedved, whom Farwell knew well from their time together with the Seattle Thunderbirds. The Vancouver Canucks, who were unwilling to arrange a pick swap with the Flyers, selected Nedved second overall. Keith Primeau went third to Detroit.
That left Farwell with a choice. Mike Ricci was almost unanimously considered to be the safest pick in the Draft. There was also a Czech forward by the name of Jaromir Jagr still on the board.
Jagr had an off-the-charts skill level but no one knew at the time when he'd be available to come to North America, both for political and hockey reasons. Communism had recently fallen in the former Czechoslovakia and no one was quite sure yet what the future would bring. Jagr spoke no English at the time, and there were all the usual question marks about whether his game would work as well once he made the switch from the wider European rinks to the NHL rink.
The Flyers made the conservative choice, going for Ricci. There was certainly nothing wrong with Ricci's NHL career. He joined the Flyers immediately and went on to enjoy a solid 1,000-plus game NHL career as a gritty center who made life miserable for many opponents.
In hindsight, however, the Flyers made a huge mistake in not swinging for the fences on future Hall of Famer Jagr. A once-in-a-lifetime talent, Jagr turned out to be immediately ready -- and available -- for the NHL. Twenty-three years later, he's still in the NHL, has surpassed the 1,000 career regular season assist mark and needs 19 goals next season to reach his 700th career goal. He's won a Hart Trophy (and has been a finalist four other times), three Pearson Awards and five Art Ross Trophies (runner-up two other times).
There is no telling whether the teams that take the "safest" picks of the 2013 Draft will someday end up glad they took the sure thing or live to regret not taking the risk to aim a little higher. According to many scouts, the safest defenseman available this year outside the likely top four overall picks Rasmus Ristolainen. The safe forwards include Sean Monahan and Bo Horvat.
It will be very interesting to see what direction the Flyers go when the 11th overall pick comes up on Sunday.
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