It might be a bit early, but it looks as if several sources are weighing in as to how much they expect the Rangers to pay to re-sign their RFAs. A variety of factors may impact this, including what happens with Brad Richards and if they elect to try and bring back Ryane Clowe. As of right now, the Rangers have approximately $13.4 million of cap space for 2013-14, during which the cap will be $64 million, down from $70.4 this past season, if Richards and his $6.67 million remain on the roster
In the NY Post, Larry Brooks predicts:
• Ryan McDonagh: 4/5 years with a cap hit of $4.5/$5 million per
• Derek Stepan: 4/5 years with a cap hit of $4 million per
• Carl Hagelin: 2/3 years with a cap hit between $1.75 million and $2.5 million
• Mats Zuccarello: 2 years at $1.5 million
Scott Cullen of TSN predicts:
• Ryan McDonagh: $4.5 million per season
• Derek Stepan: $4 million per season
• Carl Hagelin: $1 million per season
• Mats Zuccarello: $750K per season
In the recent Hockey News, they predict:
• Ryan McDonagh: Between $4 million and $5 million.
• Derek Stepan: Between $4 million and $5 million.
• Carl Hagelin: Between $2 million and $3 million
• Mats Zuccarello: Between $1 million and $2 million
My take:
McDonagh - if you haven't read the piece Glen Miller wrote on the
nyrnation.net do yourself a favor and go read it ASAP. It was an excellent nuanced piece looking at McDonagh, compared to John Carlson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Marc Staal, Luke Schenn, Kris Letang and Victor Hedman in terms of production, then Corsi and Quality of Competition ratings, production 5on5 etc. and then of course salary. In addition, at the time the column was written, Roman Josi had just signed his deal, so Glen compared him to McDonagh in the categories above. Glen had proposed the Rangers offering a contract that pays McDonagh $4MM over the next three seasons followed by five more seasons at an AAV of $4.8MM. That’s a total of $36MM over eight years ($4.5MM average) and a total of $24MM over the last five years.
My view is likely a hybrid between what the more mainstream outlets recommended, each of whom were pretty much in lockstep, and what Glen had recommended. McDonagh just turned 24. We all believe he has just scratched the surface of what he can be offensively, especially with Alain Vigneault now helming the Blueshirts. In addition, I think many of us also think that McDonagh can be a Norris Trophy candidate, especially if the offensive part of his game grows as expected. Plus, the cap should rise above the $64 million this year and be at a minimum closer to the $70.4 million this year. Based on the above, I would go six years, $30 million, with an escalating salary after the first two seasons. I think that rewards the future upside, and when you also factor in what Slava Voynov got, six years, $25 million, it is more than fair and rewards Mack Truck for being a top-two defenseman.
Stepan - pretty amazing how everyone again is in lockstep. He is coming off his ELC, so normally the Rangers have gone with a bridge deal. However, given how valuable Stepan is to the Rangers and what he has produce, it’s wise to not go that route. Stepan last year produced, especially after a slow start, at the level of a top-line center. But that there is the big debate with Stepan. Is he a 1A, 1B or 2A? The answer to that call is what will drive the offer the Rangers make. In addition, you look at what Vigneault's style has meant to the skill players in Vancouver and then transfer that to what Stepan can do and you realize just how valuable Stepan can and most probably will be moving forward. In my opinion, if you can lock up a 23-year old, first or at worse high-second line center for five years at around $22.5-24 million, you do and don't look back.
Now comes the two tough ones, Hagelin and Zuccarello
Hagelin - the key question, and one that has yet to be answered, is what type of player Hagelin is. Is he a top-six player or one that best fits on the third line to provide energy and some scoring? The first few years he has fallen into both groups, with no clear answer as to where he really stands. When paired with Stepan and Rick Nash, he showed bursts of that talent, but the question as to his hands and finishing ability, which have existed since he was drafted, remain. I hate using this context again, but Hagelin's production could rise with the new offensive system to be put in place. His speed creates chances, and the new system maximizes the use of speed to lead to more scoring opportunities. As Hagelin is coming off his ELC, a bridge type deal until he proves for sure as to what he is - top-six or third liner - makes sense. If a true believer, then go the extra year, but I would think two years and around $3 million makes a lot sense, but as said, I could see going higher.
Zuccarello - provided a spark when he came back to the US. Showed a willingness to go into the corner and dirty areas and play way above his size. He was one of the few to be willing to take the punishment to make plays in the playoffs, which enhanced his value in my mind. I understand many want a bigger body or better combination of power and speed, but this is a case or where you know what you have, especially the belief that is just scratching what he can deliver. I may be in the minority here, but I really want him back, even factoring in that if all the RFAs and Richards come back, the lineup will look similar to last year. Strong indications are that he is on the verge of signing a two- or three-year deal, which in my view will be close to $1-$1.25 million per.
What do you think?
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