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The Gambler- Chevy should be ready to deal

June 20, 2013, 3:44 PM ET [19 Comments]
Peter Tessier
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • RSSArchiveCONTACT
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I’m not going to provide you with yet another mock draft for the Jets and whom they might take with the 13th overall pick. I like reading them and all but there’s enough of the ‘mock’ stuff out there to satisfy your appetite if you so choose. Where I want to go is the heart of where the Jets will draft this year- the 2nd and 3rd rounds. The Jets have four picks in those two rounds.

Last night Craig Custance tweeted out the following:




With 3 second round picks and 2 third rounders one would hope that Jets GM Kevin Chevaldayoff is using what should be the best currency going to improve his club. There are teams who need to shed salary yet not wanting to absorb contract buyout costs or zero return for their players. This is why draft picks particularly 2nd round picks are valuable as McTavish points out.

There’s a reason for the 2nd round pick being like a $20 bill at a Vegas strip club- there’s no guarantee the gal you give it too is going to provide any meaningful return.

The follow links are from the great site HockeyDB and will show you the historical look at picks in the second round and what they amounted too. While this is a snap shot based on some limited criteria it gives you an sampling of what the second round has historically produced.

Unfortunately the lists are made in order of 20 so the first link covers both the first and second round in recent years.

Picks 21-40

Picks 21-60

The next list is of players taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds for the past 10 drafts starting in 2010. These are players who had minimum 100 games played and more (scaled up the later the year). Obviously the longer you go back the more likely it is that a player can hit that amount of games played so you will see that amount increases the further back the year.

2010

Justin Faulk-Carolina 37th

2009

Ryan O’Reilly- Colorado 33rd
Kyle Clifford- LA 34th

2008

Vyacheslav Voynov- LA 32nd
Roman Josi- Nashville 38th
Derek Stepan- Ranger 51st
Travis Hamoni- Islanders 53rd

3rd Round

Zack Smith- Ottawa 79th
Adam Henrique Jersey 82nd

2007

PK Subban- Montreal 43rd
Dana Tyrel-Tampa 47th
TJ Galiardi- Colorado 55th
Nick Spaling-Nasville 58th
Wayne Simmonds- LA 61st

3rd Round

Drayson Bowman- Carolina 72nd
Yannick Weber-Montreal 73rd

2006

Michal Neuvirth-Washington34th
Jamie McGinn- San Jose 36th
Andreas Nodl- Philadelphia 39th
Cory Emmerton-Detroit 41st
Nikolai Kulemin-Toronto 44th
Jeff Petry-Edmonton 45th
Shawn Matthias-Detroit 47th
Milan Lucic-Boston- 50th
Artem Anisimov- Rangers 54th
Mike Weber-Buffalo 57th
Jamie McBain-Carolina 63rd

3rd Round
Steve Mason Columbus 69th
Brad Marchand- Boston 71st
Cal Clutterbuck-Minnesota 72nd
Theo Peckham-Edmonton 75th

2005

Brendan Mikkelson Anaheim 31st
James Neal – Dallas 33rd
Marc-Edouard Vlasic- San Jose 35th
Ondrej Pavelec-Atlanta 41st
Justin Abdelkader-Detroit 42nd
Paul Stastny-Colorado 44th
Guillaume Latendresse-Montreal 45th
Mason Raymond-Vancouver 51st
Adam McQuaid-Columbus 55th

3rd round

Kristopher Letang- Pittsburgh 62nd
Kris Russell-Kris Russell 67th
Jonathan Quick-LA 72nd
Cody Franson-Nashville 79th
Mark Fraser-Jersey 84th
T.J. Hensick-Colorado 88th

2004- 150 GP

Dave Bolland-Chicago 32nd
Bryan Bickell-Chicago 41st
Blake Comeau-Islanders 47th
Enver Lisin-Phoenix 50th
David Booth-Florida 53th
Nicklas Grossman-Dallas 56th
Brandon Dubinsky-Rangers 60th
Alex Goligoski- Pittsburgh 61st
David Krejci-Boston 63rd

3rd round

Sami Lepisto-Washington 66th
Brandon Prust- Calgary 70th
Andrej Sekera-Buffalo 71st
Tim Brent-Anaheim 75th
Clayton Stoner-Minnesota 79th
Peter Regin-Ottawa 87th
Alexander Edler-Vancouver 91st
Johan Franzen-Detroit 97th
Dustin Boyd-Calgary 98th


2003 200GP

Loui Eriksson-Dallas 33rd
Kevin Klein-Nashville-37th
Kamil Kreps-Florida 38th
Patrice Bergeron-Boston 45th
Dan Fritsche- Columbus 46th
Matt Carle- San Jose 47th
Shea Weber- Nashville 49th
B.J. Crombeen-Dallas 54th
Patrick O'Sullivan-Minnesota 56th
Maxim Lapierre- Montreal 61st
David Backes- St. Louis 62nd
Jim Howard-Detroit 64th

3rd round

Colin Fraser- Philadelphia 69th
Daniel Carcillo- Pittsburgh 73rd
Clarke MacArthur- Buffalo 74th
Ryan O'Byrne- Montreal 79th
Alexandre Picard- Philadelphia 85th
Zack Stortini- Edmonton 94th

2002 200GP

Jarret Stoll- Edmonton 36th
Tim Brent-Anaheim 37th
Trevor Daley –Dallas 43rd
Matt Greene-Edmonton 44th
Duncan Keith-Chicago 54th
Matthew Stajan- Toronto 57th
Jiri Hudler- Detroit 58th
Johnny Boychuk- Colorado 61st
Tomas Fleischmann- Detroit 63rd

3rd Round
Greg Campbell-Florida 67th
Erik Christensen- Pittsburgh 69th
Frans Nielsen- Islanders 87th
Matthew Lombardi- Calgary 90th
Valtteri Filppula- Detroit 95th


2001 250 GP

Derek Roy-Buffalo 32nd
Tim Jackman- Columbus 38th
Fedor Tyutin-Rangers 40th
Mike Cammalleri- LA 49th
Chris Thorburn- Buffalo 50th
Jason Pominville- Buffalo 55th
Jay McClement- St. Louis 57th
Peter Budaj- Colorado 63rd

3rd Round

Tomas Plekanec-Montreal 71st
Craig Anderson- Chicago 73rd
Aaron Johnson Columbus 85th
Stephane Veilleux- Minnesota 93rd
Patrick Sharp- Philadelphia 95th



I apologize for not putting that in a spreadsheet and making it a link to view but sometimes it’s interesting to see it laid out in long form. There were 637 picks in the second and 3rd rounds between 2010 and 2001 and in the list are 109 players who met my criteria of games played. Now it’s reasonable to assume that had the 10 draft years surveyed started in 2005 going back that number would increase for eligible players for this list.

I’m not too worried about that though, because this year the Winnipeg Jets they should not be looking at who or what plays 150 games over 8 seasons when they draft. It’s why this draft, combined with the contractual status of the Jets’ roster is so important to the organization. It’s a chance to correct some wrongs the team is still managing from its days in Atlanta.

In the list above from rounds 2 and 3 there was a 17.11% chance that a player drafted then had a chance of meeting my, albeit arbitrarily, chosen standards of minimum games played. The Jets in the same draft period while in Atlanta had 82 total picks for all rounds and only had 12.19% of the players picked meet those games played requirements. That’s for ALL rounds. The only player who the Thrashers/Jets drafted in the second or third round and met the minimum games played as I assigned them was controversial goalie Ondrej Pavelec (click the link it’s an amazing article on him).

It’s ugly and not just because the team has found few late round gems but simply because there is so little to show for 10 years of drafting. To give you a look at how bad it was, former first round pick Brayden Coburn was traded for Alexei Zhitnik. Zhitnik then played one more NHL season in Atlanta before heading to the KHL for retirement.

This draft and all the activity surrounding it with compliance buyouts and UFA period present a golden opportunity to right many historical wrongs for the Jets. The current management is not responsible for those problems but they are responsible for fixing them and the fans know this.

More importantly the fans also know what this unique opportunity in the NHL contract cycle presents for the Winnipeg Jets. The two questions left to be answered are these: does Kevin Chevaldayoff work with the currency at hand right now, something he has in excess, and make it work in his favour? Or, is does he end up sitting alone in that Vegas strip bar after Jun 30th wondering where all his cash went and why no one is fawning over him anymore?

How do the fans feel? Well you believe one of two things: this management group is far better at drafting than what was in Atlanta or you want Chevy to take advantage of the market and his surplus of currency to bring in immediate change.

It will be interesting to hear the post mortem thoughts when they inevitably come because I suspect more cautious behaviour from the Jets GM is going to cause more outcry from the faithful.


While I used the image of a strip bar as a metaphor for the Jets scenario the choice of location of said strip bar, Las Vegas, was not unintentional. When one is sitting flush it’s always best to know the odds on the bets you make we’ll also see how good Chevy is at poker when this off-season gets heating up. It’s funny I just can’t get the song “The Gambler” out of my head.

On a warm summer's evenin' on a train bound for nowhere,
I met up with the gambler; we were both too tired to sleep.
So we took turns a starin' out the window at the darkness
'Til boredom overtook us, and he began to speak.

He said, "Son, I've made my life out of readin' people's faces,
And knowin' what their cards were by the way they held their eyes.
So if you don't mind my sayin', I can see you're out of aces.
For a taste of your whiskey I'll give you some advice."

So I handed him my bottle and he drank down my last swallow.
Then he bummed a cigarette and asked me for a light.
And the night got deathly quiet, and his face lost all expression.
Said, "If you're gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.

Now Ev'ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
'Cause ev'ry hand's a winner and ev'ry hand's a loser,
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep."

So when he'd finished speakin', he turned back towards the window,
Crushed out his cigarette and faded off to sleep.
And somewhere in the darkness the gambler, he broke even.
But in his final words I found an ace that I could keep.

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.
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