Rumors continue to swirl that other teams want and the Canes are willing to trade the #5 pick. But what would it take?
I think the starting point is grabbing a good understanding of the Canes current situation and needs/goals for this summer.
It goes like this:
1) For the first time in team history, the Canes are up against the salary cap. The team has $7.3M to spend to fill out 2-3 bottom half forwards, a top 4 defenseman and possibly a backup goalie. (Peters is on a 1-way contract, but ideally the Canes would like to either keep Ellis or shop the market for a more NHL proven player.)
2) The Canes top need is a proven top for defenseman for 2013-14 NOT 3-4 years from now.
3) The Canes are very much trying to build a playoff team for 2013-14 and are NOT in rebuilding mode.
4) The Canes organizational depth is at a low point right now. The Canes gave up their 2012 #1 in the Jordan Staal trade in addition to defensive prospect Brian Dumolin and are extremely thin in terms of players still in the system likely to help soon.
It is against this backdrop that any trade for the #5 pick must be considered. I think it means the following:
1) The Canes might trade down a little for the right deal (#12 would probably be a stretch).
2) It will NOT be for a full-price expensive forward. This makes absolutely no sense. Let's take the Hemsky example. The Canes trade 1 NHL top 6 (that is what Nichushkin or Barkov are projected to be) to get a different one. In the process they eat up half of the salary cap they have left ($5M vs. $1.4M salary cap hit), and they get no closer to addressing their top need which is help on the blue line. And they trade down in the draft to boot. This makes absolutely no sense unless there is some strange 3-way trade lined up or a bunch of other dominoes to fall afterward.
3) Also note that the Canes are not in rebuilding mode where a deal for a bunch of lower picks and prospects who do not help the 2013-14 team do any good.
4) Where you end up is this...Any Canes trade of the top 5 pick must do 2 things: 1) Help fill their hole on the blue line; 2) Replace the #5 pick with something not too far below that.
So any trade that starts with _____ $4-5M forward plus some other random pick prospect or whatever just makes no sense whatsoever. And any trade that sees the Canes collecting multiple picks/prospects who are viewed to be 2-3 years from playing in the NHL makes no sense.
What does make sense? A decent NHL ready top 4 dman plus another top half 1st round pick.
A couple possibilities:
--Edmonton trades Smid + #7 pick for Canes #5 pick + Jamie McBain. The Canes get their top 4 defenseman. Edmonton gets the #5 pick if they really want it that bad and a serviceable, NHL experienced blue line replacement who is only 25, is signed for $1.8M and has some upside if a change of scenery helps.
--Buffalo trades Myers + #8 pick for Canes #5 pick + Jamie McBain. I personally do not like this trade. I think Myers is too risky. He is signed for a long time at $5.5M year to be a perennial top 4. But after a real rough go in 2013 is Myers really a today top 4? Or is he a player that seems capable but is still developing and is not there yet? He is priced as the first, but until he proves it again, I think he is more of the latter. So IF (and that is a big if) the Canes front office and scouting department really likes Myers, is okay with the step backward in 2013 and trusts him to be a top 4 then maybe. If their scouting matches mine, then no way.
Two other things where the math is harder.
--Calgary: With the Flames finally in full rebuilding mode, Dennis Wideman could be available and though not a perfect fit could fill the Canes top 4 blue line need. But Calgary sits at #6, so moving up just 1 pick and tossing in a roster player is too much. First, it would only make any sense if Calgary has their heart set on someone that the canes would take at #5 (Barkov or Nichushkin) and if the Canes can offer some other futures to sweeten the deal for Calgary to include Wideman. More sense would probably be for Calgary to shop Wideman on the open market by himself. And more sense probably has the Canes ranking Wideman a little ways down the pecking order in terms of trade and UFA blue line options.
--New Jersey: At #9, the Devils spot could meet the requirements of the Canes replacing their pick without moving too far down. I also think that style-wise Anton Volchenkov could address the Canes needs. He instantly makes the Canes bigger, grittier, better defensively and better on PK. But I see 2 problems. First, I think #9 might be a little farther down than the Canes care to fall. I think the 2nd tier of targets for the Canes are the 2nd tier of centers (Monahan and Lindholm) who would could fill the 3rd line center slot with a 2-way player either next season or very soon. While it is possible that Monahan or Lindholm could slip to #9, best guess is that both go somewhere between #6 and #8. I also think that Volchenkov is borderline worthwhile enough to let go of the #5 pick that nets you an 2013 NHL roster player on the cheap. I would expect that when Canes GM Jim Rutherford starts making inquiry calls that Volchenkov would make a list of 10-12 players that he would at least kick the tires on, but I am not sure he quite merits a draft pick swap.
My prediction for how it all ends is this:
--The rumors swirl and pick up leading into the draft partly because it is interesting and partly because the Canes are sincere in making it available for the right deal (filling the D hole).
--But nothing happens. The Canes are rightfully asking too much in demanding a top 4 dman which is a rare commodity these days just to move up a couple spots.
--The Canes pick whichever is available of Nichushkin or Barkvo and add another top 6/9 forward for a budget salary cap hit.
--The Canes ultimately fill the defenseman need via trade because their just is not much out there UFA-wise which means you have to overbid by 25% and still hope you win the lottery against 4 other teams doing the same. I will save specifics for another blog, but my WAG is that Skinner gets moved in a way to move some salary $ across from forward to defense and better balance the line up.
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