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More Hemsky/Horcoff + Random Thoughts |
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Okay, so the Oilers are going to try to deal Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff. Shall I try to predict what the Oilers can acquire for each?
Shawn Horcoff
I'll start with the harder one to analyze. I think he has no trade value and the Oilers will need to use a compliance buyout on him. Some people are saying, "he could still play for the Oilers if there's no deal for him." Give your head a shake. Do you think Shawn is going to want to play for the Oilers after the GM publicly said it's time for him to go? He's never coming back.
But what's he worth in a deal? That's the bigger and uglier question.
He's a "negative value"' trade. Meaning, the Oilers would need to take back a bad contract to move him. Or, they'd need to swallow some of his contract (the new CBA allows this, I believe...but don't ask me to explain how it works).
The one thing working in Horcoff's favor is, his actual contract amount is lower than his cap hit. A poorer team could deal for him as a way of keeping themselves above the cap floor without actually spending that much.
Nashville Predators, New Jersey Devils, Florida Panthers, Phoenix Coyotes...are all possible destinations as a cap bumper-upper. My gut tells me Florida could be possible, as they have a few ugly contracts they might want to clear. Scottie Upshall, perhaps? Can that guy even play anymore?
If the there's any deal to be had for Horcoff, it's going to suck and help the Oilers in no measurable way. Maybe the only deal to be made here is for Roberto Luongo, and just by writing that, I've broken out it hives.
Just buy him out. Who cares.
Ales Hemsky
This is perhaps the more interesting discussion because there might, somewhere, be interest in him. The Oilers could approach this one of two ways. I'm not sure there is a right answer here. Judge for yourselves.
First idea could be to move Hemsky at the draft for the best pick possible. This likely means a 2nd rounder, but now that Hemsky has officially been fire saled, his value could drop further. Sad, I know. We all know Hemsky is a better player than a 2nd round pick, but his injury history and lack of production in recent years, plus healthy contract, make him tough to move.
More realistically, Hemsky will be part of a bigger trade that will see the Oilers pick up a Top 9 forward or a backup goaltender...or both. My guess is, the Oilers could pick up a decent player in the process, but they'll need to eat a contract too. I used the example of Rene Bourque from Montreal the other day. He still has three years left at a $3.33mil cap hit, which is healthy for a guy who had only 13pts last season. Upside with Bourque is, he has size, and could fit into a Top 9 wingers role better than Hemsky would.
Pick any team at random that has an oversized contract they'd like to dump. Add to that a high draft pick or decent prospect. Move those two assets for Hemsky. An example? Ville Leino and Mark Pysyk from Buffalo. The Oilers can play Leino for a season, then buy him out next summer. Pysyk is the defensive prospect of quality they get for being willing to eat Leino's cap hit with a compliance buyout. Genius!
No matter who or what the Oilers acquire from moving Hemsky and Horcoff, fans aren't going to be thrilled by the return.
Randoms
- Rumor is, a bunch of teams are willing to trade down. This opens the door for the Oilers to trade up. Don't believe the hype; GM's are just fishing. This year's draft has a very clearly defined Top 6 group. Actually, there's a Top 3 (MacKinnon, Drouin and Jones) and a second top tier (Barkov, Monahan and Nichushkin). The only way a team in the Top 6 trades down is if they either have a "vision" regarding one of the other prospects, or if the team moving up offers a ridiculous return.
Some people say to me, "the Oilers could deal Hemsky to move up". That's not going to work. Hemsky + the Oilers 1st round pick (7th overall) doesn't equal, let's say, Carolina's 1st round pick (5th overall). Maybe put Gagner in there instead of Hemsky and you could have something...but that would be an overpayment, would it not?
- I think the Oilers are going to take their chances that one of Carolina or Calgary does something crazy. With respect to the Hurricanes, they need defense. Seth Jones will be gone already, so the question is, would they use their 1st round pick on someone named Nurse, Ristolainen or Zadorov? And what about the Flames...Will they be tempted to take the perhaps more offensively-skilled Elias Lindholm over big Sean Monahan?
It's extremely obvious that the Oilers are wanting to draft a big center more than anything else. If fate smiles upon them, they'll gladly take winger Valeri Nishushkin if he's still available. Everyone seems convinced that the Oilers are going to take a defenseman...Darnell Nurse in particular...but the people suggesting it seem oblivious to the Oilers prospect situation. The future on D is okay for the Oilers. The future up front, especially at center, is questionable. With Horcoff on the way out, the Oilers would be best served by finding his replacement at the draft.
- A number of bloggers from Hockeybuzz got together yesterday and did a mock draft. It will be interesting to see how readers react to the results. I picked last, and was thrilled with the six players I came away with.
- I think it's completely possible the Oilers could move their two 2nd round picks in an effort to acquire a second 1st round pick. As the mock draft we completed will show, a number of quality players were still around at spots 25-30.
- Lots of talk about the Oilers going UFA hunting this summer. Bryan "Fernando Pisani 2.0" Bickell keeps being mentioned. Yes, he's a big winger who is having an amazing playoffs. He also has a career-high in the regular season of 17g. Didn't Ryan Jones do that before? Jones would cost the Oilers $1.5mil to keep. Bickell is going to go at $3.5mil per thanks to his playoff performance this season. Pass.
- UFA's the Oilers would look at? Tyler Bozak has to be the top of the list. Perfect 2/3 center as this team moves forward. Nathan Horton has to be on the list, too. Yes, he's a RW. Fine. Nail Yakupov can play the left side. Situation solved. Relax people.
- David Clarkson, Ryan Clowe, and Mark Streit are possible additions. The Oilers, especially once they jettison Hemsky and Horcoff, will have cap room to spare. The UFA crop is very weak this season, so it's possible competition is going to be huge, and contracts for the decent players will be oversized. As much as the Oilers need to add some talent, it's not in their best interests to overpay people.
- Backup goalie talk: Apparently, MacT still thinks the Oilers can find a decent guy from a European league. So you can forget about the Oilers dealing for Bernier or signing a UFA like Mike Smith. The Oilers are prepared to give Devan Dubnyk one more season to show he can be their starter.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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