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Yesterday Ek broke the news that the Vancouver Canucks were looking to make a splash and move up into the top-5 in order to select Valeri Nichushkin. But before we get into what the deal may be, first I'd like to look at for exactly Valeri Nichushkin is.


Report 1- Lightning director of amateur scouting Al Murray

“He’s a guy with all kinds of talent. He’s big, he’s a tremendous skater, but in February at the Under-18 tournament, that was maybe the most dominant performance I’ve seen at any of those Under-18 or World Junior tournaments. He absolutely took over the tournament. He was good on the forecheck, he was finishing checks, he was making plays or scored big goals in the third period when his team was behind, he never quit on a shift and he was just spectacular. I think when you see that potential and the level he played at in the Russian men’s league, you see a very good prospect.”

Caveat: “He’s got great one-on-one individual skills with the puck, and that was maybe the problem with him, is that you thought maybe he didn’t see the other options and he didn’t play with other players real well.”

Comparable NHL Players: Alex Ovechkin or Evgeni Malkin

Report 2- International Scouting Services NHL Draft Guide

“Nichushkin is a phenomenal talent who has seen his stock fall and rise quickly all year long. He isn’t your typical Russian offensive dynamo as he plays an intense two-way game and shows fantastic will to win in big games. He has great size and knows how to use it well to protect the puck. He is very strong on his skates and also has the quickness to burn opponents the second he gets them off balance. Nichushkin has eyes in the back of his head and is always in the right place to make a play but also always seems to be one step ahead of everybody else and very rarely hesitates to attack a situation when he identifies it.”

Report 3- Hockey Prospectus

“Nichushkin is an impressive power forward who has a ton of natural gifts. He could be a potential star, if not an elite power winger in the NHL. His best skill is his skating ability, as he is a true plus-plus skater that defensemen need to respect when he’s barreling down the wing. If a gap gets too tight, Nichushkin will likely be behind the defender in no time. He is also a strong, 6’4” pillar who loves to drive to the net. Combining that with his speed and skill, he draws a lot of penalties. Nichushkin’s north-south game is his strength, but he has a high level of ability with the puck, with the capability to make players miss. He can make plays to his teammates, and he has good offensive instincts, although his hockey sense is an area of division among scouts. Some question his vision, feeling he can be a little selfish. Others think his hockey sense is above average. He has the ability to skate through an entire team, so it cannot be considered surprising that he tries to do a lot. One area of concern: he needs to improve his defensive play.”

Report 4- Goran Stubb, NHL Director of European Scouting

“He’s a big, strong player with a high overall skill set. He can score the big goals and can dominate games. He was a bit inconsistent at times, but he’s very skilled and talented and, by far, the best Russian available in the draft this year. He had an outstanding playoff as well.”

My Thoughts- Devils advocate

As pretty much everyone in the hockey world has said in the past few weeks, Nichushkin is an impressive talent. It is rare to find a player his size, which has the speed and skill that he has. The guy can flat out play and when he is on, he is pretty much unstoppable.

But what is that worth in terms of trading up?

Some have called him Malkin or Ovechkin, while others have played things a little closer to the vest and suggested Jordan Staal or Rick Nash.

Myself, I view him as an intriguing prospect, who is more in line to be a Staal or a Nash than and Ovechkin or a Malkin. After all, the kid is still a prospects and I still recall a time when Viktor Kozlov was compared to Mario Lemieux, so we shouldn't be getting too far ahead of ourselves until the kid has played an NHL shift.

Nichushkin has talent. But whether he will ever reach his ceiling and be a consistent force, those are questions that won't be answered until four or five years down the road.

So what is he worth to Vancouver?

Alex Edler straight up perhaps? That would start the conversation with the Lightning, Predators and Hurricanes for sure. But is that enough?

I say yes, and here is why. Edler is the better NHL player right now. You know you can pencil him in for 23-25 decent minutes a night and around 50 points per season. Given his age and that he is signed for six more seasons, you will likely get that out of him for the next six years. There isn't a lot of players in the NHL that you can say that about.

Nichushkin on the other hand is the unknown and the only thing you're really guaranteed to get out of him is the seven seasons before he could potentially become a UFA. This is for I see them likely breaking down head-to-head over the next seven years.

Edler > Nichushkin
Edler > Nichushkin
Edler > Nichushkin
Edler = Nichushkin
Edler = Nichushkin
Edler ? Nichushkin
Edler ? Nichushkin

So basically, if Vancouver was to deal Edler for Nichushkin straight up, they will be getting the short end of the stick for at least the next three years and probably longer. The main reason I say that is even the most talented players don't make an impact until they are around 21-22-years old, so my guessing is Nichushkin will be the same.

Here is what I offer to trade up to get him.

To Tampa Bay- Edler
For
To Vancouver- Nichushkin and Aulie

To Nashville- Edler
For
To Vancouver- Nichushkin and Blum

To Carolina- Edler
For
To Vancouver- Nichushkin and Dalpe

In my world, betting the farm on players who have never played an NHL shift is just dumb. How long have we been hearing that the Oilers are coming? Do we really want to go down that road and become "that team"? I personally like watching NHL stars rather than the "well, you just wait five years guys".

And if a day comes (and yes I'm pretty sure it will) to do the full re-build thing, you take your lumps and re-build over a couple of bad seasons.

After all, if the Flyers gave up a ton of picks and prospects for Pronger, Edler has to be worth at least the 11th pick plus from them. I'd rather take Horvat, Shinkaruk, Domi, Lindholm, Ristolainen, etc… and a prospect over giving up Edler and two-to-three prospects for Nichushkin.

So I closing, if we are truly "in" on Nichushkin, I hope to God that the deal doesn't involve Edler unless there is something else other than Nichushkin coming back.


What do you give up for a chance to play Russian roulette?



Well that's a wrap.

Ian


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