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Updated: Flyers Sign Raffl, Risk & Reward of Drafting Defensemen in Round 1

May 30, 2013, 10:52 AM ET [279 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Update 4:00 PM EDT

The Flyers have agreed to terms with Austrian winger Michael Raffl on a two-way contract, according to Austrian news site Kleinezeitung.at.

In order to complete the transfer approval process, Raffl's now-former team, recently promoted Swedish Elitserien club Leksands IF, will receive $240,000 in compensation to release the player from his contract.


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As a followup to the recent discussion on the Flyers' historic and recent problems in drafting and developing defensemen who go on to become long-term contributors to the club at the NHL level, I thought it would interesting to revisit an issue that I raised last year: Selecting a defenseman in the first round of the NHL Draft is a dicey proposition.

First of all, defensemen have a steeper learning curve than forwards at the NHL level and it generally takes blueliners longer to cement their roles in the lineup. There is a very good chance that the team that drafts the player will have to endure significant growing pains and it will be the player's second (or even third) NHL organization that ultimately reaps the benefits of the finished product.

I strongly recommend that you check out this outstanding breakdown and analysis of how all current NHL clubs have assembled their rosters compiled over at BroadStreetHockey.com. The key takeaways:

* On a leaguewide basis, a mere 33.8 percent (or 2.37 of the average team's starting six defensemen) of blueline regulars currently play for the team that drafted them. By comparison, 41.0 percent of forwards play for their original drafting organization and 41.7 percent of NHL goalies have remained in their first organization.

* The percentage of current NHL defensemen acquired by trade (34.8 percent) is higher than the percentage of forwards (27.2 percent) or goalies (23.3 percent), while the percentage of free agent defensemen (31.4 percent) and forwards (31.8 percent) are very similar. If teams don't draft their own goalies, free agency (35 percent) is the preferred acquisition route.

I will add to this discussion an additional issue that I raised in my blog of June 1, 2012: The best-available-player method of drafting in the first round tends to slant toward forwards because it is easier to identify forwards who will go on to become NHL stars than it is defensemen.

Last year, I compiled a list of 154 defensemen who played in the NHL during the 2011-12 season. The two key conclusions I reached were that:

1) Drafting a defenseman in the first round of the Draft produced the highest chance of selecting someone who would go on to become a regular starter in the NHL. Of the 154 players in the sampling, 35.1 percent were former first-round picks. By comparison, 14.3 percent were second rounders, 7.8 percent were third-round selections, and the percentage continues to move down in successive individual rounds beyond round four.

2) However, the chances of picking a future star NHL defenseman were really not that much higher in round one than later in the draft. The ranks of non-first picks included in the sample includes the likes of Shea Weber, Duncan Keith, P.K. Subban, the now-retired Nicklas Lidström, Zdeno Chara, Kris Letang, Keith Yandle, Kimmo Timonen, Tobias Enström and Dustin Byfuglien. There were even a significant number of undrafted free agents who've become notable NHL defensemen, such as Dan Girardi and Dan Boyle. Overall, the percentages of All-Star to Norris Trophy caliber defensemen around the NHL was roughly equal among first-rounders and later selections.

For quick reference, I have pasted last year's list below. Most of these 154 players, with some notable exceptions such as the retired Nicklas Lidström and permanently injured Chris Pronger, are still in the NHL. I have bolded players who went on to become regular All-Star to Norris Trophy caliber players (or at least "big name" types).

FIRST ROUND (54)
Roman Hamrlik – 1/1 1992
Chris Phillips – 1/1 1996
Erik Johnson – 1/1 2006
Chris Pronger – 1/2 1993
Drew Doughty – 1/2 2008
Victor Hedman- 1/2 2009
Brad Stuart – 1/3 1998
Jay Bouwmeester – 1/3 2002
Jack Johnson – 1/3 2005
Zach Bogosian – 1/3 2008
Erik Gudbranson – 1/3 2010
Bryan Allen – 1/4 1998
Rostislav Klesla – 1/4 2000
Joni Pitkanen – 1/4 2002
Alex Pietrangelo – 1/4 2008
Adam Larsson – 1/4 2011
Eric Brewer – 1/5 1997
Ryan Whitney – 1/5 2002
Karl Alzner – 1/5 2007
Luke Schenn – 1/5 2008
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – 1/6 2009
Ryan Suter – 1/7 2003
Braydon Coburn – 1/8 2003
Dion Phaneuf – 1/9 2003
Ladislav Smid – 1/9 2004
Brian Lee – 1/9 2005
Jared Cowen – 1/9 2009
Keaton Ellerby – 1/10 2007
Dan Hamhuis– 1/12 2001
Marc Staal – 1/12 2005
Ryan McDonagh – 1/12 2007
Tyler Myers – 1/12 2008
Cam Fowler – 1/12 2010
Sergei Gonchar— 1/14 1992
Brent Seabrook - 1/14 2003
Kevin Shattenkirk – 1/14 2007
Dmitry Kulikov – 1/14 2009
Erik Karlsson – 1/15 2008
Nick Leddy— 1/16 2009
Barret Jackman – 1/17 1999
Carlo Colaiacovo – 1/17 2001
Jake Gardiner – 1/17 2008
Brooks Orpik – 1/18 2000
Luca Sbisa – 1/19 2008
Brent Burns – 1/20 2003
Michael Del Zotto- 1/20 2008
Anton Volchenkov – 1/21 2000
Mark Stuart— 1/21 2003
Scott Hannan – 1/23 1997
Tim Gleason – 1/23 2001
Andrej Meszaros – 1/23 2004
John Carlson – 1/27 2008
Matt Niskanen – 1/28 2005
Niklas Kronwall – 1/29 2000

SECOND ROUND (22)
Slava Voynov – 2/32 2008
Marc-Edouard Vlasic – 2/35 2005
Kevin Klein – 2/37 2003
Justin Faulk – 2/37 2010
Roman Josi – 2/38 2008
Fedor Tyutin – 2/40 2001
Trevor Daley – 2/43 2002
P.K. Subban – 2/43 2007
Jordan Leopold – 2/44 1999
Matt Greene – 2/44 2002
Jeff Petry – 2/45 2006
Matt Carle – 2/47 2003
Henrik Tallinder – 2/49 1997
Shea Weber – 2/49 2003
Travis Hamonic – 2/53 2008
Duncan Keith – 2/54 2002
Adam McQuaid – 2/55 2005
Nicklas Grossmann – 2/56 2004
Johnny Boychuk – 2/61 2002
Alex Goligoski – 2/61 2004
Paul Martin – 2/62 2000
Jamie McBain – 2/63 2006

THIRD ROUND (12)
Nicklas Lidstrom – 3/53 1989
Zdeno Chara – 3/56 1996
Kris Letang – 3/62 2005
Marc-Andre Bourdon - 3/67 2008
Sheldon Souray – 3/71 1994
Andrej Sekera – 3/71 2004
Francois Beauchemin – 3/75 1998
Ryan O’Byrne – 3/79 2003
Cody Franson – 3/79 2005
Jay Harrison – 3/82 2001
Aaron Johnson – 3/85 2001
Alex Edler – 3/91 2001

FOURTH ROUND (13)
Joe Corvo – 4/83 1997
Toni Lydman – 4/89 1996
Chris Butler – 4/96 2005
Michal Rozival – 4/105 1996
Keith Yandle – 4/105 2005
Christian Ehrhoff – 4/106 2001
Jan Hejda— 4/106 2003
Niklas Hjalmarsson – 4/108 2005
TJ Brodie – 4/114 2008
Lubomir Visnovsky- 4/118 2000
Corey Potter – 4/122 2003
Tom Gilbert – 4/129 2002
Kyle Quincey – 4/132 2003

FIFTH ROUND OR LATER (41)
Jaroslav Spacek – 5/117 1998
Rob Scuderi – 5/134 1998
Nikita Nikitin – 5/136 2004
Bryce Salvador – 6/138 1994
Philip Larsen – 5/149 2008
Kevin Bieksa – 5/151 2001
Brett Clark – 6/154 1996
Mark Fayne – 5/155 2005
Brian Campbell – 6/156 1997
James Wisniewski – 5/156 2002
Jared Spurgeon – 6/158 2008
John-Michael Liles – 5/159 2000
Andrew MacDonald – 6/160 2006
Stephane Robidas – 7/164 1995
Dennis Seidenberg – 6/172 2001
Roman Polak – 6/180 2004
Bruno Gervais – 6/182 2003
Marek Zidlicky – 6/176 2001
Pavel Kubina – 7/179 1996
Jason Demers – 7/186 2008
Ian White – 6/191 2002
Filip Kuba – 8/192 1995
Derek Engelland – 6/194 2000
Carl Gunnarsson – 7/194 2007
Willie Mitchell – 8/199 1996
Tomas Kaberle – 8/204 1996
Hal Gill – 8/207 1993
Andrew Ference – 8/208 1997
Anton Stralman – 7/216 2005
Johnny Oduya – 7/221 2001
Sami Salo – 9/239 1996
Tobias Enstrom - 8/239 2003
Douglas Murray – 8/241 1999
Milan Jurcina – 8/241 2001
Dennis Wideman- 8/241 2002
Dustin Byfuglien – 8/245 2003
Kimmo Timonen - 10/250 1993
Shane O’Brien— 8/250 2003
Mark Streit – 9/262 2004
Grant Clitsome – 9/271 2004
Jonathan Ericsson – 9/291 2002

UNDRAFTED (12)
Marc-Andre Bergeron
Francis Bouillon
Dan Boyle
Jason Garrison
Matt Gilroy
Mark Giordano
Dan Girardi
Josh Gorges
Andy Greene
Erik Gustafsson
Mike Weaver
Ryan Wilson

It is hard to dispute that the Flyers, who were the only NHL team not have a single homegrown defenseman play in half or more of their games this past season, have had an exceptionally poor track record -- both historically and recently -- in drafting and developing their own defensemen. There are a few hopeful signs that the Flyers are quietly starting to turn a positive corner in that regard, but they're certainly not where they want to be.

In the salary cap era, it also must be noted that the bigger the need to trade for established defensemen or sign them as free agents, the higher the percentage of a team's salary cap that must be devoted to the defense position.

Ultimately, though, it really doesn't matter HOW a team acquires a quality player, regardless of the position he plays. Did it matter in 1980s that Mark Howe and Brad McCrimmon came to Philly via trade? Was it a black mark on the organization that it traded for Eric Desjardins in the 1990s and Kimmo Timonen in the 2000s? Of course not.

Also, as the BSH piece nicely points out through its team-by-team breakdown of how every NHL team acquired its current defensemen, having a slew of homegrown defensemen (such as Nashville's five and Buffalo's four) does not automatically correlate to being a Stanley Cup contender, nor does acquiring most of your regular starting defensemen from the outside (such as Boston, which only had one) have to mean team-wide defensive underachievement. There's many different ways to build a team and many different paths to either success or failure.

As far as the 2013 NHL Draft is concerned, there are quite a few promising young defensemen available both as projected first rounders and potential later-round sleepers. Nevertheless, all the usual risks of choosing teenage defensemen still apply.

Good scouting and coaching are a must in drafting and player development, and I believe the Flyers have those things. Teams also need some front-office patience to stick with the young player through the inevitable growing pains. That is something that is often in short supply, especially in the win-now environment that surrounds the Flyers.

Last but not least, teams need no small amount of good luck to draft a future NHL star out of the pool of prospects available in the Draft. Owing to the learning curves of the various positions, it is my belief that luck enters into the equation a little more with choosing the "right" 18-year-old defensemen and goalies out of the Draft pool than it does with forwards.

For all of the aforementioned reasons, I suggest that people keep an open mind about whomever the Flyers ultimately select with the 11th overall pick of the 2013 Draft. If it's a defenseman, terrific. If not, that's OK too. Hopefully whomever they select becomes an NHL impact player and the team can also find in the years to come that they struck gold later in the Draft as well.

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