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So with a quick financial intro and candid assessments for 2013 for GM Jim Rutherford and Coach Kirk Muller posted, I move to the players. A key component to evaluating players’ performance is considering their role. 8 goals and 13 assists could be better-than-expected scoring contributions from a 4th-line forward who averaged only 8-10 minutes of ice time and garnered no power play time while being phenomenal on the power play and bringing the jam and physical edge you want out of your 4th line to jumpstart the bench on sluggish nights. But the same 21 points would be real light statistically for a 2nd line forward who averaged 15-18 minutes per game including a reasonable helping of ice time on a 2nd power play unit.
Slotting players into appropriate roles is crucial to balancing a lineup, capitalizing on different skill sets amongst players and targeting and achieving reasonable statistical production across the lineup.
I think this “slotting” or “over-slotting” in some cases, partially driven by injuries, played a part in the Canes 2013 struggles especially with regard to scoring balance. Working through the Canes lines for 2013 with consideration for appropriate slots for various players goes like this:
1st line: Almost exclusively Tlusty/EStaal/Semin.
At even strength especially, they exceeded even the ceiling for what you would have asked from them offensively. They scored in bunches and until the point where the team in total collapsed they were leading the league in +/-. Eric Staal and Alexander Semin are legitimate 1st line forwards on any team. Time will tell if Jiri Tlusty has developed into an any-team/any-situation 1st line scorer, but he clearly was in 2013. He is a prime example of a player fitting into a role, understanding that role and having great chemistry with his line mates.
1st line slotting: Fine. 2 clear 1st-liners and a great complementary player who exceled in the slot.
2nd line: Primarily Skinner/JStaal/Dwyer.
Overall this line struggled. For me, the issue was not the production. JStaal’s 82-game pace of 53 points might be a little bit light, but I think an interesting comparison is Brind’Amour from the 2000-01 and 2001-02 seasons. Both seasons Brind’Amour centered a defense-first 2nd line. He played as many minutes as possible against the other team’s best including leading the penalty kill. Brind’Amour scored 56 and 55 points respectively in those 2 seasons have great seasons and being a key component to 2 playoff teams. I think that the role that Brind’Amour played as a 2nd line center on those 2 teams is a very good fit for JStaal’s skill set and what you would hope for from him. But in 2013, he was mostly paired with Jeff Skinner who is a better complement to a playmaking offense-first center. Interestingly, I similarly think that Jeff Skinner’s offensive production was not that far off. His 47-point (if he played 82 games) pace seems a little low, but I think his 25-goal pace is about right and short by no more than 4-7 goals. When you consider that JStaal is not so much an offense-first center and not a pure playmaker, I think you could make a good case that Skinner’s offensive production was about what you would hope for given his situation. But then comes 2 problems. First, I think Patrick Dwyer was way over-slotted in this role (out of necessity because of Ruutu’s injury though I think I would have tried much harder to get Jokinen to work in this spot once it became clear that the 3rd line role was not working). I actually think Patrick Dwyer is a very good hockey player. And unlike some other guys who struggled in 2013, I think he could be a key component of the team going forward. But he came into 2013 averaging 15 scoring points/season over the previous 3 seasons which just is not enough offensive production from even the 3rd forward on a 2nd line of a decent NHL team. He did manage to boost his average a bit to a 28-point (over 82 games) pace. 28 points from a 3rd-line forward who played some PK minutes and virtually no PP minutes would be pretty good production, but it is just isn’t enough for a 2nd line forward on a good NHL team. But the bigger problem was that the lack of chemistry, complementary styles and whatever else led to a line that missed significantly on both fronts. Scoring a ton and maybe being average or even slightly below average defensively can be a formula for winning (high-scoring) hockey. Per my Brind’Amour comments, less scoring can also work if you are able to lock down the other team with you. But the Skinner/JStaal/Dwyer line missed on both fronts. While not horrible, there scoring, especially once Dwyer pulls the average down was light. And at the same time they struggled defensively giving up a bunch of offense. The end result was that Skinner and JStaal finished worst by a wide margin in terms of plus/minus for the team. Their minus 18 and 21 are even more glaring when you realize that despite the team’s struggles, the top line averaged about plus 10 each.
2nd line slotting: JStaal and Skinner both slot okay as 2nd line players. The problem is that I think their styles and strengths are too non-complementary to work together. Dwyer (due to Ruutu’s injury) was over-slotted. He is a good 3rd or 4th line player, but I just do not think he is capable of enough offense to be an all-season 2nd line forward on a good NHL team. The slotting issue should be resolved by a healthy Tuomo Ruutu, but the bigger challenge is for Muller to figure out if it is possible to build a good 2nd line with chemistry that includes JStaal and Skinner or if a balanced 3-line approach that separates them is the better path.
3rd line: Revolving door of primarily Jokinen with a rotating mix of line mates that included Larose, Bowman, Nash and to a lesser degree youth including Terry, Wallace, Welsh, etc.
Over the course of the full 48-game season and a reasonable number of attempted combinations, the team was never able to identify a 3rd line combination that functioned well together and produced anything offensively. Jussi Jokinen at center and his line mates got off to a real rough start out of the gate that was overshadowed by enough scoring from the top lines. Save for an impressive couple-game spurt by Jokinen and Nash, as the season wore on the inability to get scoring or much of anything from the 3rd line impacted the team’s depth and ability to win.
The 3rd line issues in 2013 stemmed from players’ underperformance (Jokinen to most significant) as is always the case, but I think the slotting issue played a significant role as well. With Dwyer pulled up to the 2nd line due to the Ruutu injury and a sub-par year by Chad Larose, Jokinen was left with a revolving door of inexperienced checking-line type forward options for his wings. Jokinen had proven very recently that he was capable of decent offensive production. Even in a sub-par 2011-12 campaign he notched 46 points following up on 52 and 65 points in the 2 prior seasons. But he was accustomed to and looked most comfortable playing on lines with more offensive talent versus pure checking line personnel. Cutting to the chase, I would argue that just about everyone who rotated through the 3rd line positions next to Jokinen was over-slotted and really more of a 4th-liner. Larose has historically been a pretty good (especially goal-scoring wise) 3rd-line forward, but just was not in 2013 and might be reaching the point of his career where he is a 4th-line player. I think Riley Nash has the potential to grow into a solid 3rd-line forward (center even), but at this stage of his development, I think he was in a little too deep for his experience level as a 15-minute per game 3rd-line forward. Drayson Bowman is the 1 player experience and skill set-wise that maybe was most suited to be an every game 3rd-line contributor, but he too had a mediocre year and never seemed to gel with Jokinen. (I think the interesting question with Bowman is whether Brandon Sutter made him look better than he really was because I thought Bowman looked solid next to Sutter for an extended run in 2011-12.) The options below Larose, Bowman and Nash (Welsh, Wallace, Nodl) were even lighter in terms of experience and legitimate 3rd-line NHL skill set. It is not that Muller did not try it, but if I were coach, I would have separated Skinner and JStaal and tried much harder to see if Jokinen could find better chemistry with 1 (not both at the same time) of the 2 either centering an offense-oriented 3rd line that featured Skinner or as part of a defense-oriented 2nd line of Jokinen/JStaal/Dwyer.
3rd-line slotting: Jokinen was slotted fine as a 3rd-liner, but struggled because of personal performance and I think to a large degree over-slotted line mates. At least based on 2013 performance and experience level, I think everyone else who was slotted on the 3rd line was really 4th-line quality at least on a good NHL team.
4th line: Often Brent and Westgarth with rotation between 3rd and 4th lines for Larose, Bowman and some back-and-forth from the AHL with Blanchard, Wallace, Welsh, etc.
For the 4th you hope for a little bit of scoring, but more so you want players who can excel in limited but important roles and make a contribution with only 6-10 minutes of ice time most nights. The most 2 common contributions you get from 4th-liners is a combination of energy, grit and physicality and penalty killing. If you can find a guy who can provide 3-5 minutes of elite penalty killing and then be physical, nasty and difficult to play against without being a defensive liability for another 3-5 minutes, you have a stellar 4th line player. From seeing enough of them this year, the player that comes to mind is Matt Hendricks from Washington. He is a good penalty killer, sound defensively at even strength and willing and able to defend team mates or stir things up when his bench needs it.
When you look at the Canes 4th-liners for 2013, I think you have 1 good fit plus a couple with potential. Kevin Westgarth is not an every night player and when he does play he is scheduled for only a couple appearances per period to make his presence known. I think he is a prototypical #12 or #13 forward with a defined role. But past Westgarth, I don’t think the team really got what you would want from your 4th line. Most glaring was the fact that none of the bottom forwards were the top of the penalty kill. Only Brent, Wallace and Jokinen plus Adam Hall during their time logged much penalty kill time, and I am not sure any would rate as the team’s best. Instead the Canes had to rely heavily on their top 6 forwards to kill penalties. Amongst the players, I think it is likely that the 4th line will see a makeover this summer. Tim Brent offered little offensively, did not excel in PK to the point where he cannot be replaced and he is not the physical presence that is ideal for a 4th line. In the move to get bigger and also since he has fallen out of the PK mix, I think Chad Larose’ next contract could be elsewhere after a great run with the Canes. Wallace most fits what the Canes want to do in terms of being a big body who hits things, but he is still developing as a penalty killer and was prone to a few too many ‘sorting out’ type mistakes defensively that led to opponent scoring chances. Ideally the Canes will spend a little money building a 3rd line which would see inexpensive youth like Bowman, Nash, Wallace, etc. slotted on a revamped 4th line that possibly includes the addition of 1 more big, gritty and nasty type. Think Matt Hendricks if the Caps let him walk for salary cap reasons and the bidding war does not get crazy for a 4th line player.
4th line slotting: Westgarth fits fine in his specific role. A number of other players are okay given the limited ice time, but at least in 2013 no one on the 4th line exceled on penalty kill, providing surprise scoring or anything for that matter making it a ho-hum group that could see some changes this summer.
I will detail my thoughts in another blog, but when you net it out heading into the free agent period this summer, at forward the Canes first line is set. Whether they play together or not, the second set of forwards in Ruutu, JStaal and Skinner are fine. But I think Rutherford has his work cut out for him nearly starting from scratch to revamp much of the bottom 6 of the team’s forwards.
Next up, I will do individual player evals for the Canes forwards for 2013.
Go Canes!
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