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Meltzer's Musings: Hartnell's Down Season in Context, Memorial Cup

May 21, 2013, 9:10 AM ET [355 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Expect a Bounce-Back from Hartnell in 2013-14

There's no two ways about it: Scott Hartnell had a miserable 2013 season. He was not in top game shape at the start of the season, sustained a broken foot in the third game of the regular season and struggled mightily to catch up for the next six weeks. By the time he started to look like even a semblance of the player he was during his All-Star season of 2011-12, the lockout-shortened season was almost over.

In retrospect, it was probably a mistake for Hartnell to repeatedly delay the opportunity to play competitive hockey during the lockout. Despite frequent rumors that he was about to join SM-liiga team KalPa Kuopio (in which he a minority owner), his insurance coverage was never finalized. The only hockey that Hartnell played was as one of the organizers of the Operation Hat Trick exhibition game for Hurricane Sandy relief. Ultimately, the lack of game action and abbreviated training camp may have worked against him when the Flyers season finally started.

Hartnell, who was seen working out off-ice at the Flyers' facilities during the organization's prospect camp last July, looked to be in outstanding condition in the middle of last summer.
In the early going of the lockout, there were numerous current and former Flyers players who joined Hartnell on the (rented) ice at the SkateZone for on-ice workouts.

However, as the work stoppage lengthened, the number of participants dwindled. By his own admission, Hartnell's enthusiasm for working out began to wane as the lockout dragged on through the end of the 2012 calendar year into early January. Over the four months between the start and end of the lockout, Hartnell's conditioning lapsed.

"You sit around for a few months, you get disheartened and frustrated. Your workouts aren’t great. When the season got rolling, it was kind of a slow start, it just kind of snowballed from there," Hartnell said on the Flyers' lockout cleanout day.

Injuries also played a big part in Hartnell's down season. He missed 16 games as a result of a broken foot he suffered in the second period of the Flyers' 3-0 loss in New Jersey on January 22. When he returned to the lineup on February 23, he got by on adrenaline for a few games (one goal, two assists in his first three matches) but then hit the wall in a major way.

It wasn't just that Hartnell struggled to put the puck in the net -- he went pointless in nine of his next 10 games, followed by eight straight pointless games after a two-goal outburst against the Islanders on March 28 -- he also struggled to keep up with the pace that his linemates set. Hartnell was eventually removed from the Claude Giroux line by head coach Peter Laviolette.

Hartnell closed out out the season with four goals in the final seven games, including a hat trick against Montreal on April 15. By that point, it was too late for either Hartnell or the Flyers as a whole to rescue a season gone awry.

Personally, I am willing to write off this past season for Hartnell. Perhaps he will not be able to approach his career-high 37 goals scored in the 2011-12 season but I think it's well within his reach to return to his norm of roughly 24 goals, especially if he retains his spot on the first power play unit. Even this year, his eight goals would prorate to 20 if he played a full 82-game season. His shooting percentage (10.8 percent) should improve to closer to his normal average over the previous six seasons (13.38 percent).

When it comes to Hartnell's game, one must always take the good with the bad. He's always going to take more than his share of bad penalties, and those penalties will increase in volume when he gets frustrated. This was a frustrating season for Hartnell, so discipline often went out the window.

Among his 70 penalty minutes in 32 games this season, Hartnell took 25 minors. The list includes five slashing penalties, seven roughing minors, two boarding minors and a pair of cross-checking penalties). By my unofficial count, 16 of his minors were committed in the offensive or neutral zones, and only one was a goaltender interference call (a risk that comes with playing a crash-the-net styke). That's way too many unnecessary penalties.

Hartnell is also always going to be a streak scorer. He'll have some point droughts even in his better seasons. Like most power forwards, he's never going to be confused with a Selke Trophy candidate in his defensive play although he's not bad for a player who performs his role.

Apart from goals, what the Flyers did not gotten enough from Hartnell this past year is the many good things he brought in previous seasons. He didn't create many opposition turnovers with his forechecking, Too often, he was late to arrive, and the puck was already gone. He didn't make space for his linemates by controlling pucks down low, and did not individually create as many power play opportunities for his team as he did a year ago.

The good news: There is every reason to believe that Hartnell can and will get back to doing these things with more consistency next season. He probably came back a little too soon after breaking a weight-bearing bone in his foot. He's never been a great skater and his tendency to fall down is infamous, but he's not normally as slow as he looked for the first six weeks after returning to the lineup. He may not look pretty in getting from Point A to Point B but at least he usually arrives in the "greasy" areas in time to make plays; that element was missing this past year.

Signed to a contract extension prior to the lockout, Hartnell's six-year contract extension kicks in for the 2013-14 season. He will get a slight bump from his current deal in terms of average annual value. The new deal carries a $4.75 million cap hit compared his current $4.25 million.

If the 31-year-old Hartnell does NOT rebound to form on the ice, the bigger problem is the length of the contract. Six years is a very lengthy deal for a power forward in his 30s. While there have certainly been exceptions (such as Brendan Shahanan or Mike Knuble), it is common for power forwards to start to break down physically and decline in their early-to-mid 30s.

Hartnell's foot injury this year could happen to any player who takes the puck in the wrong spot. It's not as if it was his back, shoulders or knees that gave out on him. Even so, it is imperative that Hartnell recovers his conditioning level from the 2011-12 season. Once a player hits his 30s, staying in peak condition year-round becomes more and more important with each passing year. That's especially true for power forwards.

Based upon his Cleanout Day comments, it seems that Hartnell has an idea of where he may have gone wrong this past season, and is determined to avoid a repeat next year. Say what you will about the pros and cons of his game. One thing you can NEVER say about Scott Hartnell is that he's player who doesn't care.

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Memorial Cup Update

Last night's Memorial Cup game between the OHL champion London Knights and WHL champion Portland Winterhawks was a good one for Flyers forward prospect Taylor Leier and a forgettable one for goaltending prospect Anthony Stolarz.

Leier, the Flyers' fourth-round pick in last summer's NHL Draft, opened the scoring for Portland and later added a pair of assists in the Hawks' 6-3 win. The left winger, who plays on a line with 2013 Draft prospect Oliver Björkstrand and center Chase DeLeo, finished the game as a plus-four.

Stolarz, the Flyers' second-round pick last year, was pulled early in the third period after stopping 26 of 31 shots. A couple of the goals he gave up looked stoppable. The goalie, who was benched for the final three games of the OHL Finals after being his team's starter for most of the latter part of the season and playoffs, has struggled of late. He played well in the Knights' first Memorial Cup game -- a 3-2 win over Saskatoon -- but last night's game may have been his final appearance of the season.

I would expect that Jake Patterson will get the start in goal for the Knights when they take on the QMJHL champion Halifax Mooseheads tonight. Leier and the Hawks return to action tomorrow night against tournament host Saskatoon.

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