Game 1 Lineups
Toronto
F:
van Riemsdyk-Bozak-Kessel
Lupul-Grabovski-Kulemin
MacArthur-Kadri-Komarov
McLaren-McClement-Orr
D:
Phaneuf-Gunnarsson
Liles-Kostka
Fraser-Franson
G:
Reimer
Boston
F:
Seguin-Bergeron-Marchand
Lucic-Krejci-Horton
Daugavins-Kelly-Jagr
Paille-Campbell-Thornton
D:
Chara-Seidenberg
Ference-Boychuk
Redden-McQuaid
G:
Rask
It is exactly nine years and one day since the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrated a post-season victory. Hockey Hall of Famers Mats Sundin, Brian Leetch and Ed Belfour were the three stars in a 3-1 victory over Philadelphia at Air Canada Center.
The club has gone through two lockouts, 656 regular season games, four general managers and coaching changes, numerous trades and countless roster reshuffles without playoff hockey, but that streak ends on Wednesday at the TD Garden in Boston as the Maple Leafs take on the division rival Bruins in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinal.
To look at the statistical breakdown of the two clubs, the matchup looks to be fairly even, but the Bruins won the Stanley Cup just two seasons ago with much the same club and have a distinct advantage in experience and the intangibles.
Here is the tale of the tape:
Record:
Boston-62 points(28-14-6), Toronto-57 points(26-17-5)
Head To Head(Regular Season)
Boston- 2-1-1(9 goals), Toronto- 1-2-1(7 goals)
Goals For(Season):
Toronto-145, Boston-127
Goals Against(Season):
Boston-106, Toronto-128
Power Play %:
Toronto-18.7%(ranked 14th), Boston-14.8%(ranked 26th)
Penalty Killing %:
Toronto-87.9%(ranked 2nd), Boston-87.1%(ranked 4th)
Hits:
Toronto-1626(ranked 1st), Boston-1200(ranked 10th)
Blocked Shots:
Toronto-826(ranked 1st), Boston-650(ranked 12th)
Forwards
Overview - The Leafs have the ability to put two solid offensive lines together if center Tyler Bozak is healthy enough to play effectively, but over the last quarter of the regular season, their propensity for turnovers resulted in Toronto being outshot on most nights and not generating as many scoring chances as earlier in the season. The key for the Leafs to stay competitive will be for Phil Kessel to be an offensive threat. Kessel has scored only nine points in 22 games against his former club and has generally been a non-factor.
Boston has the advantage up the middle with David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron and boasts solid veteran depth and playoff experience on the third and fourth lines, whereas less than half of Toronto’s forwards have played a playoff game.
Injuries - Toronto with the exception of Bozak is healthy entering the series, while Bergeron, Nathan Horton and Brad Marchand missed games in April with suspected concussion issues.
Advantage - Boston
Defense
Overview – Boston will rely on veterans Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg to play close to 30 minutes a night, as Bruins coach Claude Julien will continue to employ the tactic of matching the 36 year old behemoth shift for shift with Kessel and killing penalties. Veterans Andrew Ference, Johnny Boychuk and Adam McQuaid all play with grit and toughness and Julien will start the series with ex-Senator Wade Redden on the bottom pairing instead of prized rookie blueliner Dougie Hamilton. Leafs captain Dion Phaneuf could see as much ice time as Chara, as he will be used on both special teams units and on the top defensive pairing. While Phaneuf provides more offensive output than the Bruins captain, he is nowhere close to being as effective in a shutdown role as the big Slovak.
The pairing of Cody Franson and Mark Fraser has been the most consistent all season, with Fraser leading the club with a +18 and Franson leading the team in defensive scoring with 29 points. Carl Gunnarsson is the most effective partner for Phaneuf on the top pairing and it is likely that veteran Ryan O’Byrne will play with John-Michael Liles, in place of Mike Kostka and Jake Gardiner.
Advantage – Boston
Goaltending
Overview - Tuukka Rask and James Reimer were remarkably close statistically this season, which is a testament to the disciplined defensive play of the Bruins and the overall improvement of team defense and special teams in Toronto. Reimer’s only professional playoff experience was winning the ECHL Championship with the South Carolina Stingrays in 2009, while Rask played over a hobbled Tim Thomas in all 13 playoff games for the Bruins in 2010. Rask would appear to have the slight advantage, but blowing a 3-0 series lead to Philadelphia as his last memory of playoff hockey could be a distraction.
Even
Special Teams
Power Play – Toronto finished in the middle of the pack in league power play scoring (14th - 18.7%), with Kessel leading the club with six power play goals. The use of Franson with his quick release from the point and van Riemsdyk parking himself in front of the net has improved the Leafs effectiveness with the man advantage greatly. Boston ranked near the bottom of the league(26th – 14.8%), using Chara and Hamilton for most of the season at the point. With Hamilton not dressing, Julien may insert Seidenberg or Bergeron at the point or mix veteran Jaromir Jagr on the first unit.
Advantage – Toronto
Penalty Killing – Both clubs have excellent penalty killing, with the Leafs finishing second in the league with an 87.9% success rate and Boston ranked fourth with an 87.1% success rate.
Even
Coaching
Overview-Both coaches have won the Stanley Cup and know what to do tactically and motivationally to win a series. Julien has had to use criticism in the media and benching players like Milan Lucic to motivate his club, which has underperformed at times this season. Carlyle has modified his gruff and grumble reputation with the young Leafs and has been able to draw performances from players like Kadri, Bozak, Fraser and Franson that were key to ending Toronto’s long playoff drought.
Even
Intangibles
Experience is always a factor in the playoffs and for most of the Leafs, it will be their first taste of post-season pressure and excitement. Carlyle did his best to erase the Bruins physical superiority over the Leafs by making sure that he had players that would give some pushback when Boston tried to intimidate them. Three of the four regular season games were decided by one goal, but Boston still seemed to retain a psychological advantage over Toronto, illustrated quite vividly by Kessel’s struggles against his old team.
Advantage – Boston
Prediction
If Reimer continues to play at a high level, Kessel slays his Boston demons and the Leafs get secondary scoring from the likes of Lupul and Kadri, then Toronto can win a protracted series in six or seven games, but I have to see that to believe it.
Bruins in 5
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Here is my prediction of the other first round matchups starting tonight:
#1 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #8 New York Islanders
In spite of the surprising season had by the Islanders and the likely Hart Trophy candidacy of John Tavares, the main questions to be answered at the outset of the series are whether the broken jaw of Sidney Crosby is healed enough to get him back into the lineup and if the Penguins will win in a sweep or five games. Not many teams were playing better hockey at the end of the season than Jack Capuano’s crew, with solid goaltending from Evgeni Nabokov, veterans Mark Streit and Lubomir Visnovsky on defense and Matt Moulson, Kyle Okopso and Brad Boyes providing the offense, but the Isles are simply outmatched by the stacked Penguins. If Marc-Andre Fleury has 2012 playoff flashbacks, it may cost Pittsburgh a game, but they have veteran Tomas Vokoun as a Plan B.
Series Result: Penguins in 5
#3 Vancouver Canucks vs. #6 San Jose Sharks
Two teams in remarkably similar circumstances entering the post-season, as the jobs of Todd Mclellan, Doug Wilson, Alain Vigneault and Mike Gillis could all be in the . The Canucks have had to deal with the media sideshow regarding the goaltending tandem of Corey Schneider and Roberto Luongo all season, but also struggled to find secondary offense with the absence of Ryan Kesler for most of the year due to injury. The deadline acquisition of Derek Roy and the return of Kesler will help alleviate the pressure to score off the Sedin twins, but their propensity to be neutralized in the playoffs will be a big factor in Vancouver’s playoff aspirations. This could be the last chance for the current core of the Sharks to achieve post-season glory, with defenseman Dan Boyle at 36 years old and forwards Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau at 33. San Jose got a great year out of Antti Niemi, who had a sparkling 2.16 GAA and led the league with 24 wins and have solid scoring depth with Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski.
Series Result: Sharks in 6
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