The next couple days are always rough ones in non-playoff seasons missing out on the couple days of anticipation until it all starts. So tonight at about 8pm, Carolina Hurricanes fans instead get the small consolation prize of watching the draft lottery and winning either the #1, #5 or #6 pick in the 2013 NHL draft. The way it works this time around is that all 14 non-playoff teams get a chance at #1 overall. After that the rest of the draft reverts to order of finish in the final standings.

So the math is like this:
--8.1% chance of winning it all and getting a #1 pick.
--68.7% chance someone already above them wins the #1 in which case the Canes stay at #5.
--23.2% chance someone below them wins #1 overall and bumps the Canes down 1 to #6.

It has more or less become unanimous that US defenseman Seth Jones is the pick at #1. At #5, the Canes will probably have to choose between whatever is left of the top tier of forwards or likely have a chance to take the 2nd best defenseman. If the Canes go defense, Darnell Nurse seems to be the frontrunner. The ranking of the top 4 forwards varies quite a bit, so it is possible that a #5 pick could actually yield the Canes #1 ranked forward. There seems to be increasing disagreement in terms of who is in the top 3-4 forwards, but it seems like Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin and Aleksander Barkov are closest to being consensus picks.

For the Canes, it's Jones #1 (same as anyone else). After that I put the following to the scouting team: 1) What is the best guess for how long it takes Darnell Nurse to develop into a top 4 defenseman? If the answer is maybe as early as 2014-15 with the ability to step into a 3rd pairing role in 2013-14, I go that direction. If instead the answer is 3-4 years, which is not uncommon for even good young defensemen, then I think I look to pick a forward who can help me now and then hope to draft defense in the next rounds. If available, I think Barkov could be a great fit at #5 or #6 if available. He could offer a good combination of size, grit, offense and 2-way play as a 3rd center and has a decent chance of assuming that role next fall. Past Barkov there are a couple other forwards who could contributed immediately.

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