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Oilers Fans Unite! Flames Fans Untie! |
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I got in a discussion this afternoon with a good friend regarding the attitude of Flames fans. For those of you who haven't been paying attention to Twitter, there is plenty of gloating occurring because the Flames are likely to finish higher in the standings than the Oilers yet again.
Hey, Flames fans...I've got two words for you: Mark Jankowski.
You all know my theory about the Core 12, right? I've spoken to you about it 100 times before in 17 different languages. Do you remember my blog entirely in Swahili? God, the awful things I said about Jay Feaster in that blog. He deserved everything I said.
I think we can agree on a few things before I get into this. First is, both the Oilers and Flames are currently bad hockey teams. Further to this, both the Oilers and Flames could be considered teams in the middle of a rebuild. The Flames have a different philosophy when it comes to this: Oilers management somewhere along the way decided to let the team tank. Doing so lead to the drafting of 1st overall picks Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov. The Flames have tried to make the playoffs every season, adding the best veteran talent possible through UFA signings and trades. The Flames didn't finish in the bottom of their conference, but they haven't made the playoffs in the last three seasons either. In the years the Oilers drafted Hall, Nuge and Yaks, the Flames took Maxwell Reinhart (3rd round), Sven Baertschi and Mark Jankowski. Or worded another way, three guys who aren't fit to carry the jocks of Hall, Nugent-Hopkins or Yakupov.
I spoke about the Core 12. My theory is a team needs 12 key players in order to win a championship. They need a legit Top 6, with size, skill, and scoring ability; they need a two-way shutdown center who can score the odd goal, they need a legit Top 4 defensive group that can play in all situations, and there needs to be a clear starting goaltender.
Let's go to the board.
Edmonton Oilers:
L1: Taylor Hall - Ryan Nugent Hopkins - Jordan Eberle
If this group is healthy, I don't think anyone could make the argument against this as a league-class 1st line. Keep in mind Nuge is still in diapers and has played hurt all season. Give him surgery and Eberle time to heal up, and this line is pure magic next season.
L2: Magnus Paajarvi - Sam Gagner - Nail Yakupov
There's more questions about this group. Paajarvi is just starting to look like a legit 2nd line winger with size. Even though he has size, he's not a physical player. Nail Yakupov is world class. He might be a better player offensively than Hall, Nuge or Eberle. And then there is Sam Gagner, who is a pretty solid all-around player, but he doesn't bring size or physical play to the mix. If I had to grade the Oilers Top 6, I'd say they have five of six players needed, with the missing piece being a big center.
Hmmm...big center. If the Oilers draft between 4 and 6, with Sasha Barkov or Sean Monahan fill the roster hole nicely. So make this, post draft, 6 for 6.
The third line two-way center situation is a problem. Yes, Shawn Horcoff can do the job now well enough, but his age is working against them. The Oilers Top 6 replacing Gagner with Barkov is about age 22 on average...likely two seasons from domination. Horcoff is going to be eating apple sauce from a tin can by then.
Maybe Anton Lander is good enough to become the 3rd line center? Outside of Lander, I have no idea who fits the role. Maybe this becomes the players Sam Gagner or Ales Hemsky gets dealt to acquire?
Now, the defense...Right-pairing, we have no problems. Justin Schultz and Jeff Petry are clearly solid. Left-pairing is a completely different situation. I am not a believer in Ladislav Smid, who can block shots and be tough, but can't skate. I think Oscar Klefbom is one of the two missing pieces. I have no idea where the other missing piece comes from.
And then in net...Jury is still out on Dubnyk. Sorry. I like the guy and I cheer for him to become the starter the Oilers need, but he has yet to look consistent enough for me.
So all thing considered, the Oilers have, with the drafting of Barkov or Monahan, nine of the Core 12. Assets like Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky and Ladislav Smid could be dealt to bring in at least one missing piece, and going the UFA route, GM MacTavish can find another piece this summer. Let's suggest Dubnyk is the player that gets kept around...The Core 12 is solved, with the exception of perhaps goaltending, which might sort itself out over time.
Now, let's compare and contrast the Core 12 of the Calgary Flames.
Let's start by saying the Flames have no players on the same level as Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, Justin Schultz or Klefbom. The top young player on the Flames is Sven Baertschi, which is not a bad thing to say. I'm a fan of how he plays. Hard-nosed, fast, crafty winger. Much respect.
Mike Cammalleri and Alex Tanguay have some skills...no denying...But they're sort of on the back nine of their careers. Or worded another way, they're like Horcoff: Won't be around when the Flames become a playoff factor again.
Miikka Kiprusoff is hanging them up. Here's a piece of trivia not many of you know about me: While my favorite team is the Oilers, two of my favorite five players in the NHL play...or should I say "played"...for the Flames. I loved Iggy, and I love Kipper. Who are the other three, you ask? Nail Yakupov, John Tavares, Henrik Lundqvist.
We're off-topic. Sorry about that. Back to the Flames forwards. I think they have a goldmine in Roman Cervenka, if he re-signs. Curtis Glencross is suppose to be a real jerk off the ice (so I've been told by numerous females), but he's a decent two-way player on it. Jiri Hurdler is okay, I guess. And since I need a seventh name, I'll put Lee Stempniak, because he has 31pts this season.
Can you see the problem here folks? Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, Paajarvi, Barkov and Horcoff vs Baertchi, Cervenka, Glencross, Hurdler, Stempniak, Cammalleri and Tanguay? This might be the saddest seven forward comparison in the history of the world. The Oilers have three guys who could play for Team Canada and one guy who will play for Team Russia in their top forward group. The only thing the Flames forwards will be playing during Sochi is Find the Peanut.
Defensively, the Flames have a little more to show for themselves. Dennis Wideman is a solid puck-mover and Mark Giordano could play on my team any day. TJ Brodie is going to develop into a legit Top 4 guy. There's no huge stars here. Giordano is all-star quality, but he's never going to win a Norris.
As far as goaltending goes, the Flames situation is so bad, they wish they had Devan Dubnyk to ponder.
Now, to be fair, the Flames won't be drafting that far off from the Oilers, so they should be able to add a player of significance. As of this moment, they would be drafting 7th. Let's just look at this for a second...1st is Jones, 2nd is Drouin, 3rd is MacKinnon, 4th is Barkov, 5th is Nichushkin, and the Oilers grab Monahan with #6. In the #7 spot the Flames could grab quality defensive prospect Darnell Nurse, or center Elias Lindholm, whom often gets compared to Sam Gagner. Hell, if the Flames want Sam Gagner, they could just deal their pick for him, so the Oilers could take Darnell Nurse. If it feels good, do it.
So Flames fans going wild at how much better their team is to the Oilers need to give their heads a shake. Of the Core 12 players, the Flames have four or five at best. It would have helped them so much to tank so they could have drafted Nathan MacKinnon, the true #1 center they've been looking for since Joe Nieuwendyk left. While the Flames are going to be doing the same thing they do every season...Finishing just out of the playoffs...the Oilers will go from zero to hero any minute now.
I had someone say to me this afternoon that Craig MacTavish has been given the red light to make big deals this summer. Whereas Steve Tambellini was cautious in his approach, MacT is going to do something major this summer that's going to steal the show. I can't see him dealing any of the superkids, but the Oilers 1st round picks in 2013 and 2014 could definitely be in play, along with Gagner, Hemsky, Smid and several other prospects.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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