Steve Tambellini has been fired. I'd like to say it was a surprise, but, nah.
Here's a quote from my blog on April 9, 2013...
The Oilers have all the talent in the world now. So why aren't they winning? Is it just me, or does it seem like this "rebuild" has been going on forever? You have teams like the Calgary Flames that completely deny the concept of a rebuild, suggesting their fans deserve better than that. Calgary is stupid I realize, but are the Oilers run any better? There's too much patience in Edmonton. You'd think by now some people higher up than the Head Coach would start losing their jobs over this. Here's a concept for you: Steve Tambellini out as GM at the end of this season, replaced by Scott Howson. Hey, the Jackets team he put together this season before he got canned is playing as well as the Oilers with a whole lot less talent. Maybe Tambellini is the problem and Howson is the cure?
And another quote, this one from April 11, 2013
The Oilers don't lose games because they don't try enough; the Oilers lose games because they have the wrong mix of players. They are too small physically to beat teams like the Kings and Sharks, and they play too cheeky against teams who trap like the Wild and Coyotes. The entire game last night, I couldn't understand why the Oilers don't shoot more, and why they make things far more complicated than they need to. Dump puck in, chase puck, shoot puck, crash the net...By the time they figured that out yesterday, the Coyotes were up two goals. This happens over, and over, and over again whenever the Oilers play against a trap team.
Oilers management are in a situation here. They did nothing at the deadline, and will now pay a terrible price for their lack of vision. If the NHL Draft was held today, the Oilers would be picking 9th, and that's terrible. They need to be drafting 6th or higher. Philly is currently in the 6th spot, only four points back of the Oilers with nine games remaining. So with luck, they can go 5-4 and the Oilers can go 3-5 over their last eight. If you look at their opposition, 3-5 is completely possible. Heck 2-6 is possible. Wins against the Flames and Avalanche, but loses against the Ducks (x2), Canucks, Blackhawks, and Wild (x2).
It's time the players put their pride away, and do what's in the best long-term interests of the team. If management doesn't make some serious moves this off-season, I predict a riot.
So now that I've demonstrated how brilliant and intuitive I am, let's talk about what's happened and why it happened.
1. First point I'd like to make is, Oilers owner Daryl Katz has everything to do with this decision. He's tired of the Oilers losing, and he needs the city's support for his new rink. Keep in mind the project is still $55mil short. Oilers fans have lost patience with the Oilers losing, and the owner couldn't sit around ignoring the results anymore. Someone's head needed to roll, and it wasn't going to be Kevin Lowe's.
2. So why now? I sense there was huge disappointment in Edmonton over Tambellini's lack of action at the trade deadline. It's been obvious to everyone that the Oilers are half-way to a winning roster. Players like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and Justin Schultz...the kids...are the solution. Players like Ryan Smyth, Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Eric Belanger and Ryan Whitney...the vets...are the problem. In some cases, the vet in question is way past his best before date (Smyth). In other cases, the issue is the vet in question doesn't care about winning (Horcoff and Hemsky in particular). It was obvious to everyone the Oilers this year isn't a playoff team, and what management needed to do was just as obvious. They needed to move the vets who don't care or can't play anymore out, regardless of return.
The Oilers call-up today of Anton Lander and Teemu Hartikainen is not an accident. It is a clear indication of what's about to happen in Edmonton. Out with the vets, in with the kids.
So what is life going to look like with MacT as the GM and Scott Howson as his right hand man? Here's what I think happens:
- Craig MacTavish has players he likes, and players he doesn't. His most famous example is Dustin Penner. One player I know MacT is not a fan of is Ladislav Smid. I don't know what exactly the issue is; I just know MacT doesn't like him. With Smid's new contract making him a valuable player in the deal, I suspect Smid will be the first player to go.
- MacT likes Shawn Horcoff, sadly. So Horcs won't be going anywhere. I think Ryan Smyth will still be here too, not because he can still play, but because he bleeds orange and blue, and the team respects his legacy enough to let him decide for himself when he wants to hang 'em up.
- MacT seems to already have a bone to pick with Ales Hemsky. The Oilers have plenty of skilled forwards, so my guess is Hemsky is moved at the NHL draft.
- You're going to see a bunch of vets gone. I can't see Ryan Jones and Ryan Whitney being re-signed. Oddly enough, I could see Nikolai Khabibulin perhaps signing a one year, $1mil extension just to give the Oilers more time to find a legitimate option. The pressure is going to be huge on Devan Dubnyk to start playing as a starter should, or else.
Ben Eager, Eric Belanger...goners. Jerred Smithson is likely gone, just because of numbers. Depending on how badly the Oilers finish this season, Sam Gagner's future hangs in the balance. Not because he's bad...he's great actually...but the Oilers need size up the middle and could move Gagner if they can draft one of MacKinnon, Barkov or Monahan.
I predict there will be a rebuild within a rebuild. MacT has the unfortunate job of needing to take this team a step backwards before it goes forward. Why? Because Steve Tambellini's legacy was to draft 1st overall players and to bring in crap vets like Belanger and Eager. MacT has no choice but to go hunting for kids to fill roles on the Oilers roster. This means 2013/2014 will be another losing season.
Print out this blog and keep it. Let's see how many of my predictions come true.
#1 Oilers draft a center in June. Depending on when they draft, it will be either MacKinnon, Barkov, Monahan, Lazar or Gauthier.
#2 Oilers deal Sam Gagner at the draft for a high 1st round pick. When I say "high" I mean somewhere between 8 and 12. Oilers will use the pick to take best player available...could be big winger Valeri Nichushkin. This is not a rejection of Gagner; this is a recognition that the Oilers need to get bigger.
#3 Oilers deal Ales Hemsky for a lower 1st round pick and a prospect. Goal here is to draft a goalie. Oilers organization is desperate to bring in a top flight goalie prospect. Eric Comrie is likely.
#4 Oilers move Ladislav Smid for a different defenseman. Oilers D needs to become more mobile, and as I said, MacT is not a Smid fan.
#5 Oilers will do everything they can to unload Eager, Belanger, the rights to Omark...for anything.
#6 Lennart Petrell will be re-signed. Maybe Ryan Jones is re-signed. I'm not sure if there will be room for him in the plan.
#7 MacTavish will bring in through trade or UFA at least one Top 6 forward and one Top 4 puck-moving defenseman.
Oilers roster should look something like this next season:
L1: Hall - Nuge - Eberle
L2: New big Winger - New big Center - Yakupov
L3: Paajarvi - Lander - Hartikainen
L4: Smyth - Horcoff - Brown/Petrell
D1: New D man - Justin Schultz
D2: New D man - Jeff Petry
D3: Klefbom - Nick Schultz
G1: Dubnyk
G2: Khabibulin
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