Today around 6pm, Canes GM Jim Rutherford went all in on the current structure of the team signing Alexander Semin to a 5-year $35 million extension.

Let the "he's not worth it" chorus of Semin haters begin especially those in Washington.

First the most basic analysis: Alexander Semin has been worth every penny of his $7M so far this season. His production has been good in itself. But more significantly has been his ability to elevate the play of his linemates. Tlusty/EStaal/Semin has worked well as a 3-person unit, but I would argue that Semin's shift to elite playmaker has been the primary contributor to Tlusty's goal-scoring ascension and has also played a significant role in Eric Staal playing arguably the best hockey of his career. And to note for those who do not watch Canes hockey on a regular basis, there has been zero issue in terms of effort level, character or any of the other vague, fuzzy negative stuff affixed to Semin this past summer. He has a tendency to hold the puck too long trying to make something happen or dangling to give linemates time. There are of course the times where you yell "SHOOT!" at the TV, but then there are also the times when time opens up a playmaking gem.

My quick thoughts:
--I think is fair but full price for Semin for 5 years. I had hoped for something more like $6.5M/year for that length of time.
--But at the end of the day, the success of this contract will have absolutely nothing to do with a few $100k here or there but rather if he can continue to play at roughly a point-a-game level during the regular season, get the team to the playoffs and play at the same level once it gets there.
--IF you decide it makes sense, now is the time to do it. With Perry and Getzlaf also off the market, there will not be a ton of high-end talent to throw $ at this summer. If he continues on current pace, I think he fetches Getzlaf/Perry kind of money this summer in a bidding war.
--Rutherford has really gone all-in on the current core. He now has 4 of his top 6 forwards (EStaal, Semin, JStaal, Skinner) and his goalie locked up long-term for a lot of money. His salary outlay (not cap actual $ spent) for 2013-14 is up more than 30% from 2 years ago. There is little if any room to make significant additions past this.

I really think the past 6-8 months could be the defining moment of Rutherford's career. He has managed to build 2 Stanley Cup finalists on the cheap including winning it all in 2006. While the current team might not fully extend to the cap, he is not trying to pull off miracles on the cheap this time around. He has a "to the salary cappish" core bunch of players who are in their prime. If he is right in thinking he has the right mix, this team will become the first of Rutherford's career and the franchise's history in North Carolina to be a perennial playoff team. With the new divisions next year, he also lines this team up to battle big market teams like the Rangers, Flyers and Penguins for supremacy in the new NHL order. But if he is wrong, especially on Semin, he will have a bunch of money tied up in immovable assets. If the team isn't good, the smaller Raleigh hockey market just won't support it the same way you can mostly fill MSG in New York even during down times of quality on the ice.

The timing is also interesting. After a pretty good start and a ton of optimism, the Canes face a week that could play a significant part in deciding how 2013 turns. A continued slide including 2 games against division-leader Winnipeg will find the Canes in a too famililar position below the #8 cut line and looking for a late rush to just get into the playoffs. Or a short burst of energy after 4 days off and a couple Winnipeg wins could right the ship and suggest that the guys rowing it are the right ones. If you asked me today, if I would invest in the long-term core of this team as is, I would say "ask me at the end of the week."

I voted strongly in favor of the first Semin signing by hollering for it a mere dozen hours before it happened. Ideally, I would like to see the regular season play out and also the playoffs to make an assessment of Semin based on a complete resume that includes a run to get into the playoffs and also a look at how the team with him looks once in them. But in the reality of Jim Rutherford's world, I don't think that was possible. Had he waited to see Semin play well in April and then look good in the playoffs in May, there would be little reason for his agent just to wait another few weeks to free agency in which case it's a crap shoot for what he costs and whether you could get him at all.

Any meaningful evaluation of this trade is still years out, but I do credit Rutherford with taking aggressive steps to build a higher-end team. Here is hoping that he has it right!

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Go Canes!

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