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Game Night: Statistical Analysis of Pens-Bruins

March 12, 2013, 12:56 PM ET [483 Comments]
John Toperzer
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Poll Results

Question

What is the Penguins' greatest area of need heading into the trade deadline?

A whopping 51 percent of voters believe the Penguins need a defenseman capable of clearing traffic in front of the goalie. No other response came remotely close to this need. In second place came the health of Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby at 16 percent. Ten percent are looking for a top-six winger with playoff experience and eight percent are still looking for better goaltending.

As always, thanks for making your voice heard.


*****

Bruins (17-3-3, 9-1-2 Road) at Pens (18-8, 7-4 Home), CONSOL, 7:30 ET, ROOT Sports, NBCS

“It’s a bird, it’s a plane, no … it’s Daniel Paille.



Expected Starting Goalies

Pens – Marc-Andre Fleury

Overall in 2013

12-5-0, 2.71 GAA, .902 save percentage, zero shutouts

Home in 2013

6-2, 2.74 GAA, .891 save percentage

Lifetime against Boston

9-5-2, 2.20 GAA, .930 save percentage, two shutouts


Bruins – Tuukka Rask

Overall in 2013

13-2-3, 1.96 GAA, .927 save percentage, two shutouts

Away in 2013

7-0-2, 1.87 GAA, .933 save percentage, one shutout

Lifetime against Penguins

1-2, 2.69 GAA, .913 save percentage

Fleury has posted some solid numbers against Boston. His save percentage at home (.891) leaves a little to be desired, but it’s surprisingly high against the Bruins (.930).

Rask has lost two of three against Pittsburgh. He has yet to lose a game in regulation in 2013.


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Pens-Bruins Statistical Analysis


Goals For/Against

Pens: 3.65-2.92 per game

Bruins: 2.91-2.13

Pittsburgh leads all 30 teams in scoring while Boston surrenders the third-fewest. The Pens average 3.72 goals at home while the B’s score an even 3.00 goals per game on the road.


Goals For//Against By Period

Pens: (33-29-32-1 For) // ( 16-37-23-0 Against)

Bruins: (21-24-21-1 For) // (16-19-12-2 Against)

The Pens are strong across the board except in Period Two. Boston has given up only 12 third-period scores in 23 games – that’s pretty incredible.


5-on-5 For/Against

Pens: 1.24

Bruins: 1.24

Both teams boast equally strong 5-on-5 play.


Power Play

Pens: 27.9 percent, 12-for-43 (home)

Bruins: 24.2 percent, 8-for-33 (road)

Don’t be fooled when folks say how bad the Bruins’ PP is -- they have only three PP goals at home in 38 chances but are better than average on the road.

Pens have allowed two short-handed goals; the Bruins, none.


Power-Play Time

Pens: 158:39

Bruins: 116.45

Only one team has less time on the man advantage than does Boston.


Penalty Kill

Pens: 78.8, 26-for-33 (home)

Bruins: 97.7, 42-for-43 (road)

Here’s a big reason why Boston has only three regulation losses – they have the NHL’s best road PK unit. The Penguins? Not so much.


Penalty-Kill Time

Pens: 158:03

Bruins: 159:30

Incredibly, the Pens have 36 seconds more time on the power play than short-handed. The Bruins have surrendered more than 42 minutes (42:45) on the PK than the PP.


Record When Outshooting Opponents // Outshot By Opponents // Even Shots

Pens: 13-4 // 4-3 // 1-1

Bruins: 12-3-2 // 3-0-1 // 2-0

That the Penguins are vulnerable when outshot probably speaks to coach Bylsma’s system of shooting the biscuit whenever possible.


Record In OT & Shootout

Pens: 0-0 (home)

Bruins: 1-2 (road)

Both teams have better records on the flip side. Pittsburgh is 3-0 on the road while Boston is 3-1 at home in OT & Shootouts.


Penalties

Pens: 12.2 penalty minutes per game

Bruins: 15 penalty minutes per game


Hits-Blocks-Missed Shots-Giveaways-Takeaways

Pens: 227H-157B-116MS-66G-39T (home)

Bruins: 261H-184B-143MS-98G-71T (road)

Pittsburgh protects the puck well at Consol but has only 39 takeaways at home.


Faceoffs:

Pens: 52.2 percent, 841W-770L

Bruins: 57.1 percent, 782W-587L

It’s always a treat to watch Patrice Bergeron, in the circle, and just in general. Bergeron has won 60.9 percent of his draws and plays a complete game. Sidney Crosby holds a 55.8 percent win rate but has won nearly 200 more faceoffs (634 to 458) than Bergeron.


Record When Leading After 1st Period-Second Period // Trailing After 1st Period-Second Period

Pens: 13-3 (leading after 1st), 11-0 (after 2nd) // 2-3 (trailing after 1st), 1-6 (after 2nd)

Bruins: 7-0-1 (leading after 1st), 7-2-1 (leading after 2nd) // 2-1-2 (trailing after 1st), 2-0-2
(trailing after 2nd)

The Pens put that perfect record after two periods on the line against Toronto on Saturday but came up big in the shootout.


Record When Scoring First // Trailing First

Pens: 14-5 // 4-3

Bruins: 11-0-1 // 6-3-2

Once again, getting the game’s first goal is of the utmost importance.


*****


On-Ice Corsi

On-Ice Shot Differential (goals + saves + missed shots + blocks). This is expressed as a rate stat per 60 minutes.

Penguins (Top Five 5-on-5 Ratings)

19.80 Sidney Crosby

17.36 Chris Kunitz

16.75 Beau Bennett

15.28 Evgeni Malkin

14.41 Kris Letang

13.38 Simon Despres (bonus sixth ranking)


Penguins (Bottom 5-on-5 Ratings)

-14.51 Joe Vitale

-13.87 Brandon Sutter

-13.81 Tanner Glass

-12.27 Matt Cooke

-9.18 Craig Adams

-8.30 Brooks Orpik

All other Penguins have plus On-Ice Corsi ratings. Click here for a full team listing.


Bruins (Top 5-on-5 Ratings)

29.55 Tyler Seguin

25.60 Brad Marchand

25.41 Patrice Bergeron

17.18 Johnny Boychuk

16.46 Milan Lucic


Bruins (Bottom 5-on-5 Ratings)

-13.68 Gregory Campbell

-13.53 Shawn Thornton

-5.36 Daniel Paille

3.33 Dennis Seidenberg

4.34 Chris Bourque (recently waived)

4.70 Chris Kelly

Click here for a full team listing.


*****


Injury Updates

Pens

Evgeni Malkin: Out, will miss the next 1-2 weeks with an undisclosed injury somewhere in the upper body.

Bruins

Chris Kelly: Questionable, left Monday’s game with a leg injury and isn’t expected to play Tuesday.

Marc Savard: Out, on the injured reserve for a long time with concussion symptoms.


*****


Treasure Life!
JT
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