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Oilers at the Trade Deadline! |
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The Edmonton Oilers will be in a strange position this year at the NHL Trade Deadline. It's creeping up on us...only 23 days away. Games-wise, only 10 games away. Of those 10, seven will be home games. While the Oilers aren't in a playoff position now, win 7 of 10 over the stretch and the Oilers could be buyers instead of sellers at the deadline.
The Western Conference is a different situation than the East. There are four teams in the Eastern Conference - Florida, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Washington - That appear to be out of it. You could almost add Philadelphia to the list as well, as the Flyers have played 27 games and sit in 11th, which is playing a good one or two games more than everyone else. In the West, anything could happen. Hey, if the Columbus Blue Jackets can be four points out of a playoff spot and be the hottest team in the NHL right now, everyone in the Western Conference is still in the race.
I'd have an easier time saying the Oilers, who currently sit in 14, are out of it, but you never know: Combine a win against Colorado on Tuesday plus a remaining schedule that's two-thirds all home games, and the hunt isn't over.
Much of the time, deals between teams are East-meets-West. Teams don't like dealing to the "enemy". For example, the asking price for the Oilers to get Jay Bouwmeester out of Calgary would likely be higher than what the Flyers, let's say, would need to give to Calgary. Teams within conferences don't like helping each other out. So let's throw around some potential deals between the Oilers and the Top 10 teams in the East if they are sellers, or Bottom 5 teams in the in the East if they Buyers.
Oilers as Sellers
Montreal Canadiens - I'm not sure how the Habs are as good of a team as they are with the roster they have. I know I'm not alone in thinking this. What I can tell you is, if this is a chemistry thing, management is best not to fiddle with it. I don't really see much of a potential deal here, unless it is for the Habs to pick up a depth player for a playoff run. Someone like a Corey Potter or a Lennart Petrell as a rental for a low draft pick. Nothing too exciting. Likelihood of a deal? <5%
Pittsburgh Penguins - This rumor is as old as the hills: Ales Hemsky. The Penguins have the right assets needed to make something happen. I've heard as recently as three days ago that the asking price for Hemsky is back up to a 1st and a prospect. The Penguins have plenty of quality D prospects they could offer up, and they'll go far in the playoffs with a healthy Crosby, so their 1st round pick will almost be more of a 2nd round pick. My only question is, which prospect would the Penguins more wish to part with: Morrow, Pouliot, Maatta, Domoulin, or Harrington? I know the Oilers liked Pouliot in his draft year. But this whole Hemsky-to-Pittsburgh this is a million years old and hasn't happened yet, so this is more style than substance. Likelihood of a deal? 5%
Carolina Hurricanes - The Oilers and 'Canes kinda like each other as organizations, so that often will help move the trade process along. Carolina made it pretty clear when they dealt for Jordan Staal that they want to challenge for cups now. They have a world of cap space, so they can make any move they want. But what do they need? Defensive depth? Ladislav Smid would be exactly the type of guy that would work here. And please don't say Smid isn't available...more recent news out of Edmonton says Smid's agent and the Oilers haven't even spoken about re-signing, so you know something is not right and the player could easily be moved. The 'Canes do have one prospect I think the Oilers could like, prospect center Victor Rask. Decent center with size and some scoring ability. A future 3rd line-kind of NHL'er that the Oilers are searching for. Outside of Smid, the Hurricanes could also like someone like a Ryan Whitney or a role player like Ryan Jones. Good potential for a deal here. Likelihood of a deal? 20%
Boston Bruins - Are the Bruins and Oilers friends or enemies? It's hard to keep track of people who are on the right side or the wrong side of Lowe/Tambellini. The Bruins have exactly the type of roster that should win a cup, so I have no idea why they'd need to deal with the Oilers. Maybe just depth rentals? They're another team with cap room going into the deadline, so they have options. I'm going to mention Hemsky, not because the Bruins need more talent, but because Hemsky and David Krejci have played together and had chemistry. Maybe the Bruins need defensive depth? Dougie Hamilton...talk about your quality rookie. This Bruins team is almost too good to consider. I don't really see a fit here to be honest. Likelihood of a deal? <5%
Toronto Maple Leafs - Under the old Brian Burke, the Oilers and Leafs wouldn't deal. Too much bad blood between he and Lowe. We've already seen under new leadership, the teams talk (hello, Mike Brown). The Leafs will make the playoffs this season, and they have cap room to add rentals. But do the Oilers really have anything they can offer up that would help? Nazem Kadri all of a sudden has turned into a Top 6 forward, and that changes the situation significantly in TO. If the center ice position was an ugly one, I'd say a move for someone like Sam Gagner would be possible. Not necessary now. This is another team that if a deal occurs with the Oilers, it will be over a depth player and a lame draft pick. I think the potential deal between these teams already occurred. Likelihood of a deal? <5%
Ottawa Senators - I could make a giant list of players I want the Oilers to get from Ottawa. Oh man, the young prospects on this team. Mika Zibanejad. Jeepers. But injuries are ruining the Senators season, and I can't see how they hang in the playoff race without Spezza and Karlsson playing. The Sens could be more of a seller, and the Oilers might turn out to be a buyer here. Hmmm. I have this in the wrong list, but I'm too lazy to move it. If I'm Steve Tambellini, I'm calling daily about goaltender Ben Bishop. Didn't the Sens get Bishop for a 2nd? Devan Dubnyk is hurt and he has yet to establish himself as the starter of the future for the Oilers. So offer the Sens a 2nd and a 5th for Bishop and see if they bite. Or a 2nd and a mid-range prospect. Whatever it takes. Bishop solves a problem for the Oilers next season and he'd likely welcome a deal because of the roster log-jam in net in Ottawa. Have I mentioned yet how much I'd love the Oilers to get their hands on some of the Senators prospects? Not gonna happen. It's Bishop or bust. Likelihood of a deal? 10%
New Jersey Devils - This is another team that's hanging in, even though I don't understand how. This mini-season is delivering some weird results. On paper, the Devils roster is pretty terrible: Kovalchuk, Elias, and a bunch of carnies. Still, if they hang on in the playoff race, they could be serious buyers at the deadline. All sorts of cap room to work with and roster holes to fill. Is there a position the Devils don't need help in? Yick. I'm going to throw a wild idea at you: Nail Yakupov for Adam Larsson and the Devils 1st round pick in 2013. Ridiculous, I know. First of all, the Oilers aren't gonna deal Yakupov...but if they did...well, Larsson is a future 1/2 pairing defenseman, is he not? That's the type of offer that would need to occur. Justin Schultz, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson and Jeff Petry as the Oilers Top 4 for the next 10 seasons? Breaks my brain. Seriously though, a deal between the teams could occur, with Smid and Whitney's names popping up. The thing about a Larsson rumor is the Devils need to be adding defensemen, not dealing them. Likelihood of a deal? 5%
New York Rangers - I predicted before the season that the Rangers would win the cup this year (didn't I?). Things started ugly, but the Rangers are looking like a machine now. The Rick Nash deal is looking brilliant right about now. Sad news is, the Rangers are capped out, and they'll need to shed some salary going into next season with the lower cap. There are some real attractive players here if you're the Oilers, but this is another situation where you need to look at things for the other team's point-of-view. What could the Oilers offer the Rangers of value, other than being a place to dump salary? Nothing. If these teams deal, it's during the summer, not now. Likelihood of a deal? <5%
Winnipeg Jets - If the Jets have a roster hole (actually they have about 15, but that's beside the point) it's on the right side. Need a Top 6 winger, yes they do. If they didn't love prospect center Mark Scheifele so much, I'd make another insane suggestion involving Yakupov. But the Jets, going back to their time in Hotlanta, have been craving a big center forever, so Scheifele is untouchable. Good thing...can't stand the way he plays. Never seen a big player dive so much in my whole life. So we're back to talking about Ales Hemsky, I suppose. Here's another team that could show major interest in Ladislav Smid, now that I look at their roster. Problem is, what in the world do the Jets have that the Oilers would want? They aren't going to deal Ladd, Enstrom or Big Buff. I wouldn't touch Evander Kane with a thousand foot krutch. Prospect Jacob Trouba is more untouchable than Scheifele is. There is one prospect name that sticks out to me: Lukas Sutter. If you're talking about the Oilers needing to find an eventual Shawn Horcoff replacement, go find a Sutter. Family of plumbers. I know the Oilers liked this guy too in his draft year. His stats this season are absolutely awful, but he's a big center with tons of penalty minutes. I see this as an actual, potential deal...A rental defenseman or rental forward for Sutter. Likelihood of a deal? >10%
New York Islanders - I can't figure out if the Oilers will be sellers or buyers; I can't figure out if the Islanders are sellers or buyers. These two clubs both wear orange and blue for a reason: Equally confusing. This is one of the few teams I don't really see a "rental" type trade happening between. If the Oilers and Isles are gonna deal, it's going to be for serious assets. Which makes the likelihood of a deal real low at the trade deadline. This summer is more likely. Oilers need centers and have wingers, the Islanders have centers and need wingers. But there's not much of a deal now to be made that makes sense. Sorry. Likelihood of a deal? <5%
So much for the Oilers as Sellers. And now...
The Oilers as Buyers
Philadelphia Flyers - I mentioned Sean Couturier in a blog and almost got beaten to a bloody pulp for doing so. Sorry, sorry, sorry. Geez...I didn't realize centers who have 7pts in 25 games and are -8 are untouchable. I won't mention him again. The Flyers are a train wreck this season, but I'm not sure why. Their roster...talk about a powerhouse team, or at least, what should be. To make matters worse, they need to shuffle some funds to get under the cap next season. They need to be sellers sooner or later, whether they want to or not. But is there actually a fit here between the Oilers and Flyers? I keep looking for one, but I just can't find it. No deal makes much sense unless the Flyers shift serious salary in the exchange. I suppose this is one reason why Couturier made no sense...he's one of the few guys who gets paid peanuts. The Oilers would love to acquire a big forward like Simmonds, Schenn or Voracek, but I have no idea why the Flyers would deal any of them. Everyone else on the team seems to have a NTC. There's no deal here to be made, unless it's tiny and pointless. Likelihood of a deal? <5%
Washington Capitals - There's some similarities here between Philadelphia and Washington when it comes to a potential deadline deal: I can't find a viable angle. I get the feeling the only player the Capitals actually feel like unloading is Ovechkin, and the reason they'd do it is because they'd want three or four diamonds in return. That isn't gonna happen with the Oilers. I can see two potential trade targets for the Oilers from Washington, and I've mentioned these before: Karl Alzner and Michal Neuvirth. With the Oilers goaltending injury situation, a potential Neuvirth deal could happen sooner than later. I suppose the question is, what's he worth? Oilers would try to peddle something like a 2nd round pick and a mid-range prospect...likely not enough in the eyes of the Capitals. The player I could see Washington having interest in is Sam Gagner, as they need a 2nd line offensive center. Maybe a bigger deal could occur this summer, but would the Oilers really want it? Let's say Alzner and Neuvirth for Gagner and a 2nd asset (I have no idea what). This is a very tough deal to evaluate, because nobody can seem to agree what Gagner is worth. And the only way this happens is if the Oilers have found a way to acquire a replacement 2nd line center first. My head hurts. Likelihood of a deal? <5%
Tampa Bay Lightning - I love Steve Yzerman. Just throwing it out there. Benoit Pouliot...what is it about the last name "Pouliot" and the Oilers...he's potential a big winger the Oilers could add to play in their Top 6. The Lightning might have a tighter budget situation than many teams, and Pouliot needs to be re-signed this summer. There is actually a decent potential for a deal here, as the Lightning need prospect depth and the Oilers could offer something like a 2nd round pick + a prospect. The Lightning could use a quality prospect defenseman. Maybe a Martin Marincin or David Musil? Likelihood of a deal? 10%
Buffalo Sabres - Lookout below! My oh my, what in the world is going on in Buffalo? What in the world should go on? If I was the Sabres, the only guy who was untouchable to me was Lindy Ruff, and they fired him. So now what? Something very bold could occur with the Sabres at the deadline, but I'm not convinced it would be the Oilers tangoing with them. Something like Tyler Myers being dealt, or Ryan Miller. Players the Oilers would love, obviously, but the reason the Sabres would deal is so they could acquire a stack of assets to trigger a rebuild. The Oilers aren't interested in moving their best prospects. IF the Oilers think they're in a playoff hunt and IF they feel like getting a rental or two, a defenseman like Jordan Leopold would make perfect sense. Veteran guy; solid puck mover; left handed. He could play in the Oilers Top 4 and look good doing it. 2nd round pick would be the cost. Could it happen? Sure, why not? Likelihood of a deal? 10%
Florida Panthers - Which brings us to Florida. Rumors are all over the place that the Panthers are already attempting to deal everyone not named "Huberdeau". Can you blame them? What a disaster this season has been for a team barely surviving as it is. I wonder if this team ends up in Markham or Quebec City when this is all sorted out? Well, you know my vote already when it comes to players I wish the Oilers could get from the Panthers: Marcel Goc. Perfect 3rd line center at a quality price point. I know the Panthers are trying their hardest to deal Kris Versteeg, but a world of no. Outside of Goc, I really don't see players the Oilers could have interest in, aside from the three or four quality kids the Panthers aren't going to deal to anyone. Likelihood of a deal? <5%
Conclusion!
Here's what we know: Oilers Now Host Bob Stauffer had a Twitter message the other day (see my blog on that) saying fans shouldn't expect management to bring in players to save the season in Edmonton. I believe him. If the Oilers make the playoffs, it will be by accident, and it will be with the players they currently own. Perhaps if they are going to acquire a rental, someone like Leopold from the Sabres is a most-logical scenario.
But the Oilers aren't going to be a playoff team. Everyone knows that, and I don't think management is completely upset over the idea. Being a non-playoff team this season allows roster tinkering to continue.
Unless some magic extension falls from the sky, Ladislav Smid will be first to be dealt. He's perhaps the best rental asset the Oilers have to move and teams are going to be lining up to make offers on him. If I was the Oilers any Smid deal would include a big conditional pick added if he re-signs with a team. Let me offer an example: Smid to Carolina for Victor Rask and a conditional 2nd round pick in 2014 based on Smid signing a contract extension before the UFA period begins.
As much as you'd think Hemsky would be the guy who goes because of the roster log-jam on the right side in Edmonton, Oilers management adore Hemsky and would rather cut off an arm than move him. So for some strange reason, I see him still being here thru the deadline, thru the summer, and into next season. I don't get it. Sometimes teams adore certain players. Hemsky is the Oilers' guy.
Even though Horcoffmania continues to rage in Edmonton, management continues to have clarity on the situation. If they can acquire a 3rd round center of quality, Horcoff gets bought out this summer. If they can't, he'll stick around IF there's cap room for him to do so. But if the Oilers find his replacement at the deadline this year, Horcoff is going away.
Sad news for hockey fans is, I think the entire trade deadline this year is going to be, well, dead. Rental players for draft picks and not much else. The teams are all too close in the standings for serious moves to occur. No team wants to be the reason some other team wins the cup.
With respect to the Oilers, and if they are Seller, we're saying goodbye to Ryan Whitney, Ladislav Smid, and maybe Ryan Jones. Whitney for a 3rd round pick...2nd is a best case scenario. Smid could actually bring a real player. Jones? Lots of debate. Anywhere between a 3rd and a 5th? Dare me to drive?
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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