Take the recent news with Keith Ballard’s agent telling News 1130 that he’d be calling the Canucks, more particularly GM Mike Gillis, about his client’s playing time and situation as gamesmanship. There’s a whole lot of bluster and a whole lot of strategy in the move, perhaps more of the latter but it’s well masked.
#Canucks defenseman Keith Ballard's agent Ben Hankinson says he will be calling the Canucks today regarding his client.
However, certain facts are undeniable and irrefutable, the Canucks have been looking at the Jets. There were two Vancouver scouts in Winnipeg when the Jets hosted the Penguins nearly two weeks ago. There was one in Winnipeg before that. Remember, no one is scouting the other conference right now- they aren’t seeing each other until the Stanley Cup final.
Another irrefutable fact is the Canucks absolutely must dump some salary for the upcoming year. The Canucks are at 64.3 million committed for next season and that is without including Raymond, Higgins, LaPierre, Tanev, Weise, Schroeder, and Alberts. You can check out the Canucks situation from the fine folks at Capgeek.com. It’s a cold reality but there are solutions. The Winnipeg Jets have just 57.2 million committed to this season and only 33.8 million for next season. There are 14 UFA and RFA players on the Jets roster and that certainly gives them an edge but also future expenses.
It’s these teams with strong ownership, sold out buildings and cap space that are going to have a place near and dear to the hearts of teams like the Canucks. It’s why the Canucks may want to get started soon.
Take Ron Hainsey for example, would he be the top of many people’s lists to sign after his deal, with a cap hit of 4 million, expires after this season? The Canucks could just as easily swap out Ballard for the expiring contract of Hainsey and be further ahead. For those same cynical Jets fans perhaps taking Antropov along to the west coast with Hainsey might be even more appealing.
But look at the numbers as well.
Hainsey (we’ll use him as he is like Winnipeg’s Ballard except no one gets benched here) has a Corsi to Competition of 2.279 compared to Ballard’s -1.211
Now keep in mind that Ballard plays a 5-6 role in Vancouver and Hainsey is now playing top 2 in Winnipeg due to injuries to Redmond and Enstrom.
Now look at the Corsi rating for when the two players are on the ice:
Ballard 10.05
Hainsey -12.71
Corsi Relative: Shots fired against (negative) or for (positive) when on the ice vs the team’s raw EV Corsi (I’m lost too but smart people say this stuff matters).
Ballard 4.5
Hainsey -18.8
I could go a lot further with the advanced stats on these two but I’ll leave that to smarter minds than me. The point I’m trying to make here is that while some Jets fans hate Hainsey, some writers have referred to him as “pillow-soft”, he’s not all that bad. In fact he has a better spread on defensive zone starts and offensive zone finishes than Ballard but that’s aside from the point.
What I’m driving at here is that from an asset management there could be a deal to be made here between the Canucks and Jets. Ballard has had enough of Vigneault’s doghouse and other than Burmistrov and Kane it appears Noel has no room for anyone else in his.
Hainsey is coming up to 32 years of age while Ballard is 31 on November 26th so they both have another similarity- age. In fact the acquisition of Ballard would be almost replacing Hainsey at the same age that Haisney was at when the Thrashers moved to Winnipeg.
Then there are some other questions, ones that stats guys far smarter than I might be able to answer. What does putting Ballard in Hainsey’s spot on the Jets look like in terms of performance going forward- are his historical numbers the only expectation?
When Ballard was last with Florida he had a woeful On-Ice Corsi at -17.85, a -9.0 Corsi Relative but he was playing much harder competition. The same can be said about 2007-08 and 2008-09 seasons in the same general sense but maybe not to the same extremes as the Corsi ratings above show.
So why should the Jets take on a guy who may be no better or worse than a player who already divides fans right now?
It comes from looking at the player’s situation and not his stats. His acquisition might be one of the few miss-steps that Mike Gillis has made as it appears Ballard is the square peg in trying to fit into the Canucks’ round hole. Ballard would bring with him that elusive exposure to the culture of winning (not the Charlie Sheen kind). He may very well not be the right player on the Canucks roster, a different style, a different game where only one players has seemed to compliment him well- Chris Tanev.
The Jets defense is a rather patchwork affair, and not because of the injuries, it just has not been built to completion yet. It still might take 2-3 more years before all the pieces are there with Trouba and Redmond full time with Bogo, Buff and Enstrom. Would Ballard be much like Jokinen and provide that bridge between the present and the future?
That’s one reason for making the move: a chance to buy time at only a slightly over-priced cost. The other reasons may not be apparent on the stat sheet but could be very compelling if Ballard is the right kind of guy, and he might be. He’s a Minnesota native, US developed and he’s probably a guy who needs a change of scenery and a place where he can use some of the skills that seem to have been lost in Vancouver. Read this piece from Nucks Misconduct for another perspective.
Keith Ballard may be oil to Alain Vigneault’s water but under the tutelage of Noel and Huddy in Winnipeg Ballard could find a nice place for himself in the Jets top 4. For all you fence sitter out there here’s something to think about on the blue line.
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • 
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