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Part 1 of 2: The "half full" Canes current assessment blog

March 1, 2013, 2:41 PM ET [6 Comments]
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
With a small amount of free time on my hands late last night, I sat down and scribbled a random collection of thoughts about the 2013 Carolina Hurricanes so far. With the rollercoaster ride of a season so far with multiple of both highs and lows, it initially read as a bipolar set of random assessments that could not have possibly been about the same team or season. Easiest way to make it somewhat coherent was to break it into 2 blogs - the positive and the negative. First up is the positive today since that part was a little easier to organize late at night. When I get a few minutes to organize random thoughts at least a little, I will post part 2, the dark side, in the next few days.

So the positive...

1) Right where we want to be. Rollercoaster ride aside, the Canes are right where they want to be right now. They survived the uncontrollable uncertainty of a mostly training-camp-less start to the season and through 19 games, the team sits atop the Southeast Division. This is despite playing 11 of the 19 on the road and also despite a stretch of 5-6 games where the team was massively injury-riddled. The lead is obviously tiny. Canes are actually tied with Winnipeg in points but carry a game in hand and are up only 2 on Tampa (with the same game in hand). For the regular season, that is the ultimate goal - to lead the Southeast Division which nets playoffs (minimum requirement for successful 2013 campaign), a #3 seed and home ice for at least 1 round of the playoffs.

2) When this team plays well, they are good enough to beat anyone. It was only for a period and resulted in a loss, but the Canes had the Bruins on their heels for the 2nd period of their meeting and when playing well have fared well against other good teams including yesterday's dominant win against the Pens (yes I realize Malkin was out) and arguably the best win of the season at New Jersey (who was playing real well at the time) at the end of a long road trip.

3) The key skaters including new additions are on track. Since adding Jiri Tlusty the EStaal line of Tlusty/EStaal/Semin has been incredible. The goal totals are impressive, but more significant to me is the +/-. I get that this is a much-maligned stat when comparing players across different teams, but when you look at +/- for a line over a long enough period of time I think it is telling. It very simply says that when you put Tlusty/EStaal/Semin on the ice against the other team, you generally win. This is incredibly important for a top line and a group that sees the most ice time of your forward sets. Jeff Skinner has been flat out dynamic at times. I love the highlight reel goals as much as anyone, but most significant for me has been his increased contributions in the department of winning 50/50 battles and doing more little things to make a difference on shifts where the puck does not end up in the opposition's net. I think Jordan Staal still has another geer, but he has transitioned well and is doing well in a slightly different role where he is playing with a different kind of player (more offense than just sound defense than Matt Cook and Talbot or another checking line type) and broader role (kicking in more on the score sheet).

So Semin transition - check. Skinner resurgence - check. JStaal transition - check. But I think the most significant case of "pitfall avoidance" for the Canes for the top half of their roster has by far and away been Justin Faulk. A couple years back Jamie McBain lit the NHL on fire as an offensive-oriented but defensively sound young defensemen during the tail end of the regular season. Over the summer, he got penciled into a top 4 slot for the following year. Trying to hit mid-season stride and rhythm out of the gate at the NHL level just did not work, and it played a part in a playoff miss that year. While he continued to develop as a player, he just was not ready for a top 4/every night role for a full season. So fast forward to this year. Justin Faulk was about in the same situation. Last year, he looked phenomenal in training camp. We all know how it ended, but many probably forget that he struggled mightily out of the gate in the regular season and found his way back to the AHL before returning the NHL and gradually taking on increasing responsibility. His path looked very much like McBain's. He was a young, growing defenseman who looked like a possible top 4 but with probably something like 30 games experience in this role. And with the departure of defense-first help (Bryan Allen) and the only addition (Joe Corvo) being offense-leaning, there really was no backstop for a Justin Faulk setback in his top 4 slot. He has been fine. I would put his solid, steady, veteran-like start as either 1A or 1B (next to Staal and Semin's instant offensive chemistry) as being the most significant single points leading to the season's early success.

4) I really think Cam is the right guy. Overall, the honest part of me has to say that Ward has been below the average cutoff for starting NHL goalies. It would pain me too much to try to rate him between 1 and 30 because I know that counting only 2013 reality, he probably finishes somewhere about 25-30 depending on whether you want to issue extra credit for the few extraordinary efforts or whether you want to take huge deductions for the few games where he really didn't even give his team a chance. But he is a fighter. When an NHL goalie really stinks, they tend to do 1 of 2 things. Either they whimper away meekly and hide needing time to sort of regroup and try again, or they battle like mad regardless of how bad it is going to try to win the current game. Ward is clearly the latter, and I think that is the makeup you want in a goalie especially come playoff time when you need to be able to take a bad loss and come back in 24 or 48 hours ready to fight again. I do not mean to give Ward a free pass. He needs to be better overall (consistently giving his team at least a chance) for the Canes to be more than a team battling for the #8 spot like in recent years. But I think he will.

You cannot mention Ward without also pointing out Ellis performance. In exactly none of his 3 wins was he the backup riding a super-human effort by the skaters to make it easy on him. His first win was a 1-0 win versus Ottawa with zero margin for error. His 2nd win was a similar 1-goal win (empty-netter made it 2) against Buffalo. His 3rd win against Toronto was another effort where he got nothing close to an easy win but rather earned it. Take away 2 Ellis wins (and basically give him the 1-4ish record that has been too common of Canes backups in recent years) and #1 of my positives goes away and it gets much harder to write the "half full" blog with the Canes sitting way down in 10th or 11th place in the Eastern Conference.

So the Cliff's notes version of the Canes positives goes like this:
1) Regardless of process, the Canes are where they want to be standings-wise so far.
2) The new additions and the top half of the lineup skater-wise are hauling the mail. Line 1 has been phenomenal and better than expected. Line 2 has been good if not great. And the top 4 on defense (when they actually all played) have been good after a couple-game rough start with special mention going to Faulk holding down a top 4 spot as hoped.

Next up I will take an objective shot at the "half empty" version of the Canes at this point in the 2013 season.

For a quick heads up when I post a Canes blog follow me on Twitter at CarolinaMatt63.

Go Canes!
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