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Oil Price Rising; Flames Subsiding |
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I got to thinking about the trade deadline while speaking to a friend on Twitter earlier. The focus of the discussion was the Calgary Flames. For those who don't know what's happening, allow me to explain:
Calgary GM Jay Feaster ripped the Oilers organization a little over a year ago with respect to the idea of going "full rebuild". 'Full Rebuild' is the term I use to describe an organization allowing themselves to intentionally suck for the purpose of acquiring top draft picks for a number of consecutive seasons.
After Pronger ran screaming from Edmonton during the summer of 2006, Oilers management tried for a few seasons to be competitive. Problem #1 was, the team had no top-flight talent developed internally to lead the team. Years and years of poor scouting and drafting are to blame. Problem #1 lead to Problem #2: No high-end UFA's were willing to sign with Edmonton, mostly due to the lack of elite home-grown talent. Edmonton is considered the ugly step-sister of NHL cities (let's be honest here), so quality UFA's aren't going to willingly sign up unless they have a chance at winning a cup. Oh, the Oilers tried to bring in top guys: Jagr, Heatley, a few others...Nothing worked. Eventually ownership and management collectively decided to go 'Full Rebuild' out of necessity. 20th place hockey teams are pointless.
Most teams don't like the idea of intentionally tanking. Why? Some GMs, like Feaster, make it sound like an ethical dilemma. People don't buy season tickets to watch losing hockey, and teams have a responsibility to be as good as possible at all times. There's some truth to it. But the thing Feaster neglected to mention while ripping the Oilers is that the main reason the Flames haven't blown things up: Ownership won't allow it. Does anyone know what Feaster himself thinks? Nope. He's being a good soldier here, defending the stance of ownership. Philosophically-speaking, it was an argument over the need to go Full Rebuild that lead to the dismissal of Flames Coach Brent Sutter. Sutter argued that the current roster had no chance of improving and that management needed to act. Ownership resisted and Feaster had to pull the plug.
There has been plenty of chatter in recent days that Flames ownership is waking to the realization that Full Rebuild is the only hope. Who do the Flames have that can match Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov or Justin Schultz? No one. As far as Schultz goes, there's a lesson to be learned: Schultz chose the Oilers BECAUSE of Hall, Nuge and Yakupov. Elite players want to be surrounded by other elite players. Come UFA season this summer, agents will be calling the Oilers to see if their player can become part of the team. That's how much the situation has changed in Edmonton: Oilers management won't be begging players to come here anymore. The players will come to them.
I feel for Feaster, sort of. The good news for him is, it's not like the Flames have zero to work with. Rumors suggest Jarome Iginla wants out. Even with Iggy being a rental, Feaster should be able to get a mid-1st round pick and a decent prospect for him. Think about a team like the Pittsburgh Penguins, who hunger for another cup and need a quality RW for their Top 6. The Penguins 1st in 2013 + a defensive prospect (pick one, any one...the Penguins have five or six future NHL'ers) would help Feaster get the rebuild underway. Feaster is going to need to make deals like this, as the cupboard is completely bare prospect-wise. Sven Baertschi is perhaps the Flames top prospect, and he did zero in four games this season before getting injured. Calgary absolutely threw away their 1st round pick in 2012 when they drafted Mark Jankowski, who dominated in a league filled with 12 year-olds and players not good enough to be in the CHL.
If the Flames offered up Jay Bouwmeester to the Oilers, or half a dozen other teams in the NHL, they'd get a reasonable return. From the Oilers? Well, you won't get a 1st round pick out of the deal, unless it's the 1st pick for 2014. The Oilers need to draft a gritty center this time around, regardless if they draft in the #1 or #30 spot. But perhaps Bouwmeester would get you the Oilers 2nd round pick + Martin Marincin, or David Musil, or Martin Gernat, or Colten Teubert, or Dillon Simpson. Perhaps out of the bunch, Marincin has the greatest chance of turning into a Top 4 NHL defenseman.
Roman Cervenka is another rental the Flames could get a decent pick for. Cervenka could be one of those "2nd and a conditional second pick if he re-signs" situations. Every little bit counts.
One thing Flames management/ownership has done that is moronic is they've given half the roster no trade clauses. If the Flames weren't such a sinking ship, it would be impossible for Feaster to make deals. Certain guys would be tough to trade, even if they were willing to go. Mike Cammalleri is a talented guy who is completely overpaid. His $6mil per makes him a tough sell going into next season with the salary cap dropping. A team would have to be insane to deal for Alex Tanguay with his awful contract (three years after this season at $3.5mil per). Can't see there being much willingness from anyone to deal for Matt Stajan or Dennis Wideman with their stupid contracts, either.
Aside from Iggy, Miikka Kiprusoff, if healthy, would also bring you an immediate 1st round pick in 2013 + a quality prospect. The Flames could have three 1st round picks this June, including their own that should be in the Top 5...2013 is suppose to be a very deep draft with plenty of talent. Draft well, and you've kick-started the rebuild by at least a full season.
The Oilers have problems of their own come the trade deadline. Different problems, but problems nonetheless. I realize the Oilers will never have everyone back and healthy at the same time, but if they do, they need to make decisions on a few people. My gut tells me Ryan Whitney, Theo Peckham, Eric Belanger, and Ryan Jones will be aggressively shopped. Ales Hemsky and Sam Gagner might be passively shopped IF the Oilers are clearly out of the playoff race. From what I'm hearing, a player who might be available is Marincin, who's attitude might not jive with the coaches. The goal with any deal will be for the Oilers to acquire draft picks. For a team that's drafted high for three straight seasons, prospect depth is surprisingly lacking at numerous positions. The Oilers absolutely need to take a center with their 1st round pick and a goaltender in the second round. I'll go with Curtis Lazar as the center and Eric Comrie as the goalie, in case you wondered.
The difference between the Oilers and Flames now? The Oilers are finally interesting on the ice again. The Flames are only interesting off of it. In Calgary this season, it's Feaster famine.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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